Posted on 09/15/2012 7:28:38 AM PDT by Innovative
Obama's convention bounce seems to have evaporated. Rasmussen today has Romney up 3 points. Today's Gallup tracking poll had Obama up 5, a loss of 2 points over two days. Gallup uses a 7 day rolling average, so expect this number to continue to come down over the next several days. Undaunted, the media are trumpeting new polls with show Obama with 3 point lead nationally and significant leads in the battleground states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia. As is becoming routine, these new polls again oversample Democrats.
I realize oversampling Democrats is simply part of an effort to create an air of inevitability for Obama's reelection. Its a narrative the media is desperate to foster.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
I’ve wondered the same thing: if you call up 1,000 voters on a supposedly random basis, and you get 70 percent Dems and 30 percent Republicans, and they all tell you they are going to vote straight party line, does that mean you have established accurately that the Democrat is going to receive something close to 70 percent of the vote?
But I know that pundits are always talking about “sampling” and “weighting” the polls. So I assume the “weighting” comes in when they get the rough numbers, and then apply turnout ratios (and probably other factors) to the 70-30 split and come up with something a bit different.
What I see conservatives hanging their hats on this time is that many pollsters are using 2008 turnout numbers to weight the results; and in 2008 the proportion of Republicans voting was far less than in, for instance, 2010.
Then again I could be completely wrong.
I can’t see Obie breaking 40%. %35 wacko lefties and a small portion of the indies. 56/39/5. Landslide
That could also backfire. Obama supporters could also stay home believing that his win is assured and so they’re vote isn’t necessary.
In 2008 Zero did not win in Georgia, and in 2012 he has an even slimmer shot. We have a Republican guv and a Republican dominated state legislature.
You’re a bit new in town to tell us to start worrying. IMHO, this election will be a repeat of ‘10, maybe a bigger ass whoopin’, plus winning the White House.
Fair polls reflect the actual ratio of D/R/I, whatever that may be: ratio of registered voters or likely voters (which obviously takes into account how likely they are to vote.).
Oversampling means that the polls ask more of one party, than their actual ratio.
It is NOT just more of one side vs the other.
As an example, say that some place they have 60% D and 40% R registered. If the poll is weighted to have 60% D and 40% R in that sample, than the poll is properly weighted.
If they poll 70% D and 30% R, when there are 60% D and 40% R registered, then they are oversampling Democrats.
Oversampling means that the polls don’t reflect the actual ratio.
Thanks for setting me straight. : D
Believe me, I am a broken glass voter.Nothing but God will stop me from voting in Nov.
There is nothing wrong with not knowing something, better to ask and find out.
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