| This thread has been locked, it will not receive new replies. |
|
Locked on 08/28/2012 10:11:43 AM PDT by Sidebar Moderator, reason:
New thread here: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2923793/posts |
Posted on 08/22/2012 1:47:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Storm Isaac threatens to dampen the Republican National Convention Monday in Tampa, Florida. National media outlets are having a grand time anticipating a Grand Old Party washout. Tampa mayor Bob Buckhorn (D) announced Wednesday that he is absolutely prepared to call off the convention next week, with anticipated attendance of 70,000 delegates, party officials, journalists, protesters and others. Buckhorn has not indicated that he would attempt to mitigate liberal protests or a hastily planned Joe "Plugs" Biden visit to Tampa during the convention.
Time will tell. Stay tuned...
Sea Surface Temps
Buoy Data:
Caribbean W. Carib and Florida
Radar:
Puerto Rico Gitmo, Cuba, Key West & Tampa Bay
Great site NN,thanks very much. Looks like an all day affair for us at lest for today.Tomorrow worse of course.
any word on storm surge/flooding for the Keys? That will be my biggest worry.Over three feet puts water in my garage.
over 5 feet I have to move the cars to the highway.
The mental image of Soledad O'Brian as "The Thinker" reminds me of a hilarious episode from her coverage of a hurricane several years back. rodguy may remember my telling this, but she was riding in a helicopter in the aftermath of a storm which came in from the Gulf through the FL panhandle, LA (that's Lower Alabama!) and southwest GA.
There was a tremendous amount of flooding inland from that particular storm and as they were flying over some flooded fields Soledad was giving her live commentary to the network anchor back in the studio. As the camera panned the fields below she told her audience to notice the water buffalo who were trapped and forced to stand in the water up to their shoulders!
As soon as she made that comment the back and forth patter/banter she and the studio guy had been carrying on stopped. There was a long pause... and then the studio guy said, gently, "I believe those are cows".
The network then quickly cut to another reporter in another location and we never heard any more about the fate of those water buffalo. I would have especially liked to have heard from the helicopter pilot afterwards and asked him how he managed to fly the copter and belly-laugh at the same time!
Soledad as "The Thinker" - as comedian Jon Lovitz used to say, "Yeah! That's the ticket!".
BTW, rodguy, I finally got to examine some of your rods recently. Nice! Beautifully made, and top-notch quality!
NautiNurse, I pinged you just to say thanks for your efforts in providing these threads!
Prayers to all FRiends in the path of the storm that you will come safely through this passage. Be sure to watch out for those water buffalo...
... Storm surge and storm tide...
it is still too early to determine the exact heights of storm tides
for specific locations within the forecast area. Given the latest
forecast... there is a chance for storm tides of 2 to 4 feet above
mean sea level.
In fairness, their forecast yesterday was based on a fairly significant overland pass through Cuba. Now that disruption could be missed, hence the big change (from a 50mph to an 80mpg storm, according to NHC; Bastardi is going higher than that, FWIW).
Right... though that surge forecast would be on the back side of the storm. My concerns would be the areas NE of the eye’s landfall.
Unfortunately, all of the FL Keys have the same local weather statements from Key West. Expect more specific info with subsequent updates.
Great to hear for you buddy.,p> Oh wait. I think I see a water buffalo swimming down the street!! ..oh noo its a sea cow.
Funny you should mention the rods,and thanks. Tuesday night I gave one to Herman Cain. It has titanium guides and I told him they take a lickin’ and keep on tickin’,just like you!! He laughed.He’s coming back to fish with us,can’t wait.
Four feet is really getting close for me,two feet we can handle. Are you near the water as well?
Intensity forecast for Isaac
Isaac survived passage over Hispaniola relatively intact. It's large size aided this, and this will also help it survive passage over Cuba today and Sunday. By the time Isaac pops off the coast of Cuba into the Florida Straits on Sunday, it will likely be a 50 mph tropical storm with a large, intact circulation.
Isaac will be over very warm waters of 31°C (88°F) in the Florida Straits, wind shear will be light to moderate, and the upper-level wind pattern will feature an upper-level anticyclone over the storm, aiding its upper-level outflow. As I discussed in my previous post, Crossing Hispaniola and Cuba: a history, there have been five storms since 1900 with an intensity similar to Isaac, which crossed over both Haiti and Cuba, then emerged into the Florida Straits. These five storms strengthened by 5 - 20 mph in their first 24 hours after coming off the coast of Cuba.
Given the relatively intact structure of Isaac so far, and the favorable conditions for intensification, I expect Isaac will intensify by 15 - 20 mph in 24 hours once the center moves off of the north coast of Cuba. If Isaac spends a full two days over water after passing the Florida Keys, it is possible that it will have enough time to develop a full eyewall and undergo rapid intensification into a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.
The latest 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the GFDL model is calling for Isaac to intensify to Category 2 strength, then weaken to Category 1 at landfall in Mississippi on Tuesday. The 06Z HWRF run is calling for landfall in the Florida Panhandle near Fort Walton Beach as a borderline Category 2 or 3 hurricane.
The 5 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast gave Isaac a 19% chance of becoming a Category 2 or stronger hurricane in the Gulf. I expect these odds are too low, and that Isaac has a 40% chance of becoming a Category 2 or stronger hurricane in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. I doubt the storm has much of a chance of hitting Category 4 or 5 status, though. While the surface waters in the Gulf of Mexico are very warm, near 30 - 31°C, the total heat content of these waters is unusually low for this time of year.
We got lucky with the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current this summer, as it did not shed a big warm eddy during the height of hurricane season, like happened in 2005 (I discuss this in my Gulf of Mexico Loop Current Tutorial.) Without the type of super-high heat energy we had in 2005 in the Gulf of Mexico, Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico in 2012 will have difficulty forming.
Yes, on the water.
Higher than 80mph really worries me.Another thing I seem to recall is that with big storms like this,Issac as big as Texas, they can possibly carry along with them a bigger swell/surge. They are so big,they literally create bigger tide surges.I’m not sure if that is 100% accurate but I do recall it.
A tropical storm watch has been issued along the Florida East Coast
north of Sebastien inlet to Flagler Beach.
A tropical storm watch has been issued for the Florida West Coast
north of Bonita Beach to Tarpon Springs.
Isaac located 40 miles E of Gitmo
Moving NW at 17mph
Max sustained winds 60mph, 998mb
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
Re: Masters’ forecast: that’s what Joe B. is suggesting right now on Fox: that it could be a 100-120mph storm at the keys with ‘explosive’ development tomorrow. Also could do ‘main’ landfall at least that strength.
I mis-read Masters’ a bit: Joe (as usual) is being the alarmist in suggesting possible rapid, early development tomorrow. Masters is delaying that until Issac gets into the Gulf of Mexico.
TYVM, NautiNurse!
Hi NautiNurse,This doesn’t sound good.Our newest son-in-law is a lineman.They are headed down to Florida right now.
LOL! Wish I had heard about the water buffalo. I just love the steady diet of liberals showing their ignorance.
Here is an ensemble model from wunderground whatever that is looks like a bunch of spaghettis. Just to show you how wacky these storms can get one spaghetti shows this thing going to just West of Perry,Fl. then hitting GA., SC maybe Wilmington, NC then doubling back hitting West Palm and back to the Keys.Unreal if it actually happened.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201209_ensmodel.html
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.