Posted on 08/06/2012 10:47:43 PM PDT by Aquamarine
If the world’s largest navigable river system goes dry, the economic consequences will be felt around the world.
What is the single greatest reason America is so wealthy? According to the analysts at Stratfor, it is because of a river.
They have to be joking, right?
What about America’s vast gold resources? What about its mountains of coal? America is the world’s third-largest oil producer—surely that is why. Then there is America’s temperate climate and fertile soils that traditionally make it the world’s breadbasket. And don’t forget America’s human capital, Yankee ingenuity, and Protestant work ethic. Surely these factors are cumulatively more important than a river.
Not according to one of America’s premier think tanks. Many countries have large natural resources and hospitable climates, but don’t even come close to having America’s wealth. What sets America apart from the rest of the world is the Mississippi River basin. It is what makes exploiting America’s resources economically possible.
But now, due to the worst drought since the 1950s, the Mississippi may be about to go dry.
In Memphis and Vicksburg, the shrinking river is obvious: slower river, exposed river banks, and more sandbars. The water is down more than 13 and 20 feet in each city respectively. The Mississippi on average is about 13 feet below normal—and a whopping 55 feet below where it was at this time last year. On some stretches, the water level is perilously low. On July 17 it was reported that a 100-mile stretch of the Platte River in Omaha, Nebraska, had dried up.
In fact, water levels are now so low that barge operators are no longer able to operate at full capacity and have to shed both weight and number of towed barges.
For each one-inch loss of water, the standard barge must unload 17 tons of cargo—that is a loss of 204 tons, per barge, for every one-foot loss. A typical tow on the upper Mississippi river may have 15 barges. A one-foot loss of water translates into a loss of 3,000 tons of capacity. Tows on the lower Mississippi River may have up to 45 barges, resulting in a loss of capacity of over 9,000 tons. Tom Allegretti, president of the American Waterways Operators, reports that it would take 130 semitrucks or 570 rail cars to haul the freight unloaded by one large barge grouping under those conditions.
Almost 600 rail cars just to make up for the loss of one string of barges. There are thousands and thousands of barge strings that ply the Mississippi each year. The shutdown of the Mississippi would be an absolute catastrophe!
Already, the cost to ship bulk goods is rising. As the weight that can be put on barges shrinks, the cost per unit weight is rising. And that translates into higher costs on the consumers’ end. Products that are already only marginally profitable may not be economic at these higher transport costs.
The last time the Mississippi shut down due to low water was in 1988. Then just a small section of the river became unnavigable—but it cost the shipping industry $1 billion.
If the Mississippi shut down today, sources quoted by nbc estimate that the direct costs to the economy would be a massive $300 million per day—a cost that would skyrocket exponentially if the river did not reopen after more than a few days!
We are still a few feet of water away from that, but the summer isn’t over either.
1988 is the only time in recent memory that can compare with this summer, says Lynn Muench, senior vice president of American Waterways Operators. “For the last two or three weeks, the phrase I keep hearing is, ‘Close to 1988. Worse than 1988. Same as 1988,’” she says. “There’s a real possibility that it’ll be worse this year.”
Making matters worse for barge traffic, last year’s record flood stirred up debris and changed the location of underwater obstructions. The Army Corps of Engineers is working like crazy to dredge shallow areas and mark dangers.
But still, the number of barges going aground is rising. Shipping lanes are narrowing. And traffic is slowing. On Wednesday, a barge grounded in Minnesota. It took 24 hours to clear it, and another day to dredge the channel before other barge-trains could pass. The same day, another barge got stuck in La Crosse, Wisconsin. It took about a day to get traffic moving there again. cbs News says barge traffic is getting hung up all up and down the Mississippi, even in areas that normally don’t have any problem.
America’s Mississippi River system is an absolute jewel that America cannot afford to lose—no matter how short the duration.
The Mississippi River, in conjunction with Missouri, Red, Arkansas and Ohio rivers, comprises the largest interconnected network of navigable rivers in the world. Stratfor calls the Greater Mississippi river network “the circulatory system of the Midwest.” It is what opens up one third of America to the world. Even without the addition of canals, it is possible for ships from anywhere in the world to reach nearly any part of the Midwest. With the addition of canals, goods can now be transported from the Great Lakes in the north to New Orleans in the south.
And this fantastic water highway just happens to sit astride the most fertile crop-growing region in the world.
It is hard to overstate the economic implications of this overlap. The geography of most nations requires their governments to devote scarce resources to lay endless rail and road to build the transport capacity that was gifted to America at no expense. And water transport costs a fraction of moving goods by road and rail.
The Mississippi River network virtually guaranteed that America would be rich.
But the Mississippi blessing may now be turning into a curse. Everybody is aware that America is in the midst of an epic drought. Contingency plans are being made for reduced corn, soybean and wheat crops. America has experienced droughts before. Markets are prepared for this reality, although they may be underestimating the global consequences of the drought.
America is now critically reliant upon the uninterrupted functioning of this vast intercontinental transport network. The drying up of the Mississippi—even for as short a period as a week—would be a huge, unexpected blow to this nation, never mind the global economy. And it is one that America and the world can ill afford at this time.
It depends on whom the Almighty Obama is mad at this week.
-PJ
I honestly do grow weary of these reports that seek to convince everyone that the end is near.
We have had droughts before. We will have them in the future.
The world is not going to suddenly come to an end, or the U. S. fail because the Mississippi river bed is going to run dry.
We have droughts and we have floods. Ten or fifteen years ago we had major flooding on the Mississippi. At the time folks were convinced that farms were going to disappear, and the river was going to eat up a lot of farmland. Today it’s just the opposite.
Somehow, we’ll get through this. Some hand wringers won’t, but the rest of us will. There’s no such thing as a normal when it comes to weather. It’s cyclical. Things will turn around. We will survive.
Call in the Hopi indians.
The Mississippi River, in conjunction with Missouri, Red, Arkansas and Ohio rivers, comprises the largest interconnected network of navigable rivers in the world. Stratfor calls the Greater Mississippi river network “the circulatory system of the Midwest.” It is what opens up one third of America to the world. Even without the addition of canals, it is possible for ships from anywhere in the world to reach nearly any part of the Midwest. With the addition of canals, goods can now be transported from the Great Lakes in the north to New Orleans in the south.
And this fantastic water highway just happens to sit astride the most fertile crop-growing region in the world.
The great river... allegory?
I’ve seen more dry rivers than full ones, as a Southern Californian. Last week I was in Bakersfield. The Kern was just a long bone-dry path of sand. I’ve always been kind of jealous of places where they have water in their rivers all year round.
Last time this happened old sunken paddle-wheelers were located, studied, and their artifacts salvaged.
Yes, this has happened before, and will again, there is a reason rainfall forecast are based on an AVERAGE.
We had a very pleasant mild winter in my area last year, I am NOT looking forward to the extra heavy winter I expect this year.
I’ve ben here long enough to see the pattern, “drought” followed by record setting wet.
Even the article mentions severe flooding a short time ago, nature does tend to average these things out.
How soon we forget:
Levee blasted along Mississippi River to spare Cairo, Ill. ... May 2011.
The preacher man says it’s the end of time
And the Mississippi River she’s a goin’ dry
The interest is up and the Stock Markets down
And you only get mugged
If you go down town
I live back in the woods, you see
A woman and the kids, and the dogs and me
I got a shotgun rifle and a 4-wheel drive
And a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive
The preacher man says it’s the end of time
And the Mississippi River she’s a goin’ dry
Wow, that’s true. I had forgotten about that, so your comment was right on the mark.
There are times when I don’t follow every story, and it’s quite obvious I didn’t tune in to this one.
Thanks for the mention. It was much more timely for my premise too.
Great minds think alike
Much ado about nothing.
I grew up in Memphis, had an office on Front Street, and saw the river in flood and drought.
I even had the pleasure of steering a barge train one day,
when I was in the marine radio communications business, mid 60s.
A high river is just as much of a problem for barge operators, as a low river.
Oh, the article mentions “ships”.
You will never see a sea going ship on the Mississippi.
Only barges travel the river, transporting bulk materials.
But Mark Twaine predicted that it would one day be only a few paces long. Is...is this the work of Man-Bear-Pig?
A Country Boy Can Survive
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4s0nzsU1Wg
Tom is a frickin moron. One rail car can hold about 100 tons, how much can a semi hold? Trains can get it there in about 2 days or less. Shipping from Iowa to New Orleans is 640 ton-miles per gallon on a train and 544 ton-miles per gallon for a barge. Iowa State University
Trains win in both time and ton-miles per gallon.
The Nile and Amazon Rivers are not navigable????
Is it the end of the world? I don't know, but I know that many people now days have taken for granted the blessing God has given America and what God gives, God can also take away.
The sky is falling.
Quoted by Donald Simanek
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