Posted on 07/02/2012 3:02:51 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
It's Fourth of July week, a kind of All-Star break for the presidential campaign. The economy is still sagging, unemployment remains above 8% and the Fed just lowered its forecast for economic growth this year.
Pretty bleak stuff for President Barack Obama. Yet he still enjoys a modest lead in most presidential-campaign polls.
Multiple factors account for that, obviously, but the president reaches this stage with three distinct advantages that are serving him well:
The swing-state edge. If a candidate is going to do well anywhere, obviously the place to beat expectations is in the swing states that will decide
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
According to this guy, Obamugabe leads Romney in 12 swing states 50-42.
Obamugabe leads Romney by 40 points among Hispanics and that lead supposedly is growing since he announced amnesty.
Second tier issues are working well with the electorate...crap like "rhetorical support for gay marriage" and the amnesty thing are supposedly working well for him.
I do not know how to read this—frankly, I don’t want to believe Obamugabe is that popular. An eight point lead among the swing states seems absurd....but this guy says the ONLY state the punk is losing among the swings is North Carolina.
Also, how can “rhetorical support for gay marriage” be helping this jackass?
Yet it seems as though this loser is sticking around in the race.
On the other hand, most people are NOT paying attention to the race now...sadly, many do not make up their minds until the last two weeks.
Without a real candidate against him of course he is still hanging in there.
Can you imagine how much bump a conservative candidate would have gotten this week with the Courts ruling?
He’s got the corpse vote, the fudge-packer vote and the wetback vote sewed up.
According to CNN’s latest battleground poll, Romney leads 51-43 in swing states.
BTW, CNN poll with Obama up 8 in battleground states was of registered voters not likely voters.
Some were adults only no?
Hmmm...funny...I don’t think anything in this article is correct.
In the end, most people will vote their pocket books.
Most of us (Freepers, conservatives) desire opportunity for creation of value. But for many of the new, secular America it means government handouts.
With 50% of US households receiving government funds/support, and only 50% paying Federal Income taxes, the ‘social justice’ message will resonate strongly. When added to accelerated voter fraud and the usual Democrat machinations, BHO will almost certainly win a second term to continue consolidation of imperial authority.
Pray for America to return to the risen Christ.
Motivation is important.
I think Obama is in trouble simply by looking at his fund raising and the economy.
Many conservatives feel we are better off with him than McCain - Palin or Mitt and some one.
They would have hated Reagan.
Better to be personally funding abortion than try with another in hopes of ending our funding.
The gas price fixers working as hard as snopes to bring in the election.
Watch for gas to drop another 20 cents or more by November.
Snopes puts out 300+ articles a day in support of their god Obama.
if all that is true...50-42-——growing latino lead of 40-——second tier issues-——then why is his approve still at only 48%...if they support him in reelect one would think they would also job approve......most likely obama is still in it because romney is just yelling economy sucks without explaing how he would fix it....thats why...
You know, we’re beginning to sound like FR in 2008, back when the polls had to be wrong, Obama couldn’t possibly win, etc.
Its a long time until November, but I’d believe these polls. Unless Romney gets his @$$ in gear, we’re going see Obama being sworn in, again, in 2013.
And then, of course, he’ll be more “flexible.”
Sorry, I meant the CNN Battleground poll with Romney up 8 was registered voters not likely.
Thnx
American voters have dramatically changed in the last 20 years.
Most Conservatives are white, but the relative percentage of white voters is slowly going down.
Even worse, white women voters are slowly moving to the Left.
We admit 1 million new citizens each year.
They vote in low numbers, but they vote 80% for the Democrat Party.
Black Americans vote 90% for the Democrat Party.
Non-Cuban Hispanics vote 70% for the Democrat Party.
In a democracy, numbers are everything.
Slowly but surely, Conservatives are being pushed off the mathematical battlefield.
Quick math - (hopefully not sloppy math)
“Obamugabe leads Romney by 40 points among Hispanics and that lead supposedly is growing since he announced amnesty.”
In 2008, which was the highest hispanic turnout both in terms of numbers and percentages voting Dem (about 9 million in 2004, 12 million in 2008), it was
67% for Obama
31% for McCain
That is 36 points, vs. the 40 points cited above. There will be about 13 million hispanics voting this year.
So that 40 point number means “Obama at the moment gets about 600,000 more American votes than 2008” ... a shift of a little under 1/2% of the total vote.
But then you can knock that back down because the unemployment rate among Hispanics is around 13%. All whites, blacks, reds, browns and rainbows care more about their own skin than the immigrants or ‘recents’ that follow them. They are not stupid, and while Obama’s little EO trick may HOLD the hispanic vote relative to 2008 (mix of happy hispanic immigration policy vs not-so-happy unemployment) ... Obama is still going to take a dive of ~7% with most all other significant groups that he maxed out in 2008 to a point that there is no way he could go up nor milk from other groups.
His entire strategy, then, is to ‘hold on’ to old votes that he received under the most favorable circumstances. It’s like beating your own personal 1 mile running best by 30 seconds (say, 10%) because of a wind to your back, a lot of cocaine, a down hill track etc. ... It’s great, but the down side is you’re going to spend the rest of your life merely trying to match something that occurred in a perfect storm of favorable conditions.
People just aren’t going to turn out for him - those circumstances no longer hold. The bumper sticker stories here are just one thing that illustrates that. The wise and semi conscious hate him or are at least let down by him, he’s no longer fashionable or sexy to the outright fools (although they’ll still poll in favor of him even in Likely Voter polls.) The lack of turn out will beat him. Republican turn out is going to be a wash or slightly favorable compared to 08 - Romney’s lack of charisma will be made up for by utter hatred for Obama (and the desire to have a grown up at the helm in terms of fearful times.)
I’d save my worry and keep buying Romney shares at Intrade while they’re still cheap. I’ll be looking at ‘Romney 300 Electoral Votes’ shares before long after doing a little swing-state-specific research to confirm it’s a decent risk.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.