Hang on Galveston...
Posted on 06/23/2012 3:17:36 PM PDT by varina davis
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BUOY OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE DATA...AND PRELIMINARY RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORM MAY BE FORMING IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IF THE PLANE IS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION...THEN ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND MUCH OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE SEE MARINE FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
&& HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$ FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
The above was the 2 p.m. tropical forecast. Here is the updated announcement of Tropical Storm Debbie:
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
...TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF
NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A SLOW NORTHWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN ON SUNDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEBBY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WELL EAST OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 1001
MB...29.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...1 TO 3 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
NEXT ADVISORY
$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LOUISIANA COAST...
Could use some rain up north here though, so bring 'er on.
This storm is just practice from our detractors who quite possibly can control the weather. Target: Tampa and RNC.
Don’t think you would be so nonplussed if you lived on the gulf coast. A hurricane anywhere along the gulf would be incredibly dangerous.
Weather Underground 5-day forecast has it heading for Texas:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201204_5day.html
The models are pretty divided, but yes, that’s the current thinking. It will likely sit and spin for a while since there are no strong steering currents presently.
Its been raining in Venice Florida for a week on and off...today its been on all day...very seldom do you get an all day rain around here...usually a thunderstorm and an inch of rain in a hour and gone..
Hang on Galveston...
I believe this formed from the remnant of a cold front. Last week was the coolest (a few degrees, but still warm) and driest I can remember for Florida in mid June.
The early 50's is NOT recent by most peoples calculation...unless you are REALLY old. Maybe you are...which could explain your handle...and attitude.
Time for bigger AC unit!!
Buy gas now!
Nope. Formed as a part of the monsoon trof that was in the Caribbean. We've (I'm a meteorologist) been watching it for the better part of a week. The computer models, the global models anyway, have been forecasting it to develop over the Gulf over the weekend and they were right.
I would think Debbie would target Dallas.
May be sound advice. Oil cos. shutting down rigs as I type...Getting nasty out there.
Where do you live in Florida? It’s been pretty wet here in St Augustine (NE FL) for about six weeks, which is actually earlier than our usual “afternoon thundershowers” pattern.
We have had a fair number of nor’easters, in addition to the storms that we say “come from Gainesville”, meaning from the west or the Gulf. It was dry last year but so far, not this year.
This appears to be a very slow moving tropical storm. I recall one in South Flordia a few years ago that dumped 20 inches of ran and did enormous damage.Pays to always be apprised of what these things are doing.
Where to Gulf storms tend to form? In the Gulf itself, or do they more often move into the Gulf as existing hurricanes?
We recently moved to Houston from VA and I’ve never paid a lot of attention to where they originate in this region.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.