Swing State Polls Show Close Race

NRO ^ | May 31, 2012 1:06 P.M | Katrina Trinko

[bkepley]

NBC reports:

Today, we’re unveiling a new round of NBC-Marist surveys in three other battleground states — ones that aren’t polled as often — showing an even closer race. In Iowa, the two men are tied at 44% among registered voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate; 10% are undecided. In Colorado, Obama gets support from 46% of registered voters, while Romney gets 45%. And in Nevada, the president is at 48% and Romney is at 46%. The margin of error in each of these three surveys is plus-minus 3%, so they are all statistical ties in these battleground states.

[relictele]

46% of our fellow citizens would sit still in a burning house. Appalling.

[Col Frank Slade]

Bad news for Mr. Zero.

MSM polls show dead heat or near dead heats in multiple swing states. They can’t even skew the numbers to favor Obama. They can’t even cover with oversampling Dems.

Romney probably ahead by 5-10 in reality.

[ExTexasRedhead]

I’m not buying it. Absolutely no one I talk to anywhere will vote for the dictator in chief.

I’m not buying any of these polls; nada!

[tcrlaf]

The last set of NBC polls had a +15 Dem margin to show Obama leading Ohio by just 6.

How bad is it THIS TIME?

[HOYA97]

That’s why we should only look at polls that are of “likely voters”. If the likely voters are still close then the challenger will nearly always take the lion-share of the undecided votes.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

The Marist poll is registered voters. Worthless.

Rasmussen's likely voters shows Zero losing.

[manovark]

Notice that all the polls by NBC were of registered voters. BHO is in real trouble if he can only manage a tie with registered voters. Likely voters probably put Romney up by 4-5 pts.

[jiggyboy]

I’ve heard that “likely voters” is a better predictor than the “registered voters” they use here — and they usually show better numbers for Romney.

[bkepley]

I’ve heard that “likely voters” is a better predictor than the “registered voters” they use here — and they usually show better numbers for Romney.

I thought these poll numbers were unusually good for Romney.

[jiggyboy]

Oh we have our share of “principled” non-voters right here on FR, trying to shout down anybody would dare to vote for Romney rather than sit out, out of spite, and to show those Republicans a lesson, dag nabbit!

[jiggyboy]

As other posters have already noted, whatever you think of these numbers, the situation “on the ground” is probably even better than that.

[pistolpackinpapa]

I’m not a big Dick Morris fan, but I agree with him on this point. If the President is at 46% and and there are 8 - 10 percent undecided on Election Day, he loses BIG. On Election day, 80% of the undecideds go for the challenger, over the incumbent, in any election. If after 4 years, they are still “undecided” on Election Day, they will not vote for the incumbent. That is a historical fact.

[entropy12]

If this keeps up, I am dreading what October surprise the community organizer will pull out.

[pgkdan]

True. They’re oversampling democrats and probably registered rather than likely voters.

[pgkdan]

True. They’re oversampling democrats and probably registered rather than likely voters.

[wiggen]

I have a friend here in NYC,a liberal woman. She voted for Obama last time. We have had so many debates. The usual rancor against conservatives. Saw her over the holiday weekend. She said to me she would vote for whomever the pubbies nominated. She said Obama has done nothing so far.
This is the typical northeast liberal automatic pull the lever Democrat voter.This ia a vote that is simply assumed.
Obama is going to be in a world of hurt.

[nathanbedford]

It appears that the race is breaking for Romney even earlier than I had anticipated.

If Romney shows this much progress in the swing states among registered voters he is almost certainly ahead among likely voters. The momentum is swinging his way and I would expect to see major defections from the Obama camp with the Democrat candidates turning away from him. Expect his fund-raising woes to mount. Expect to see the establishment media somewhat less reliably in Obama's camp.

Today's economic numbers will only accelerate this trend. Even the price of gasoline comes down only because the economy is weakening. I doubt Obama will be able to put any kind of a plausible spin on tomorrow's jobless numbers and that, compounded with the revision downward of the first-quarter GDP, will cause more of the electorate, especially the undecideds, to decide that they must try something new.

When this thing breaks it will be reminiscent of Reagan's break but I think it will come much earlier in the season.

[bkepley]

It seems to me that if these are statisticians it would not matter that much what their sampling is as long as the sample is large. The raw data is massaged to reflect the assumptions of the pollster. Of course the assumptions of the pollster matters a lot as Rasmussen found out in 2010.

[PaulZe]

We should look for the opening of killing of Osama movie that Hollywood is now producing