Posted on 05/08/2012 9:25:34 AM PDT by xzins
The first USA TODAY/Gallup Swing States Poll since the GOP settled on moderate former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney as its presumptive Presidential nominee shows an interesting dynamic for Romney and the GOP.
After the Republican Party nominated one of the most moderate candidates in the field, enthusiasm for Romney is down among self-identified GOP moderates and Romney’s likely victory or defeat now hinges on “swing states” where Tea Party backed candidates made strong showings in the 2010 Tea Party wave election.
Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin are the swing states Romney needs to win to be elected. Key states, such as Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida that contributed to Obama’s 365 to 173 electoral vote blow-out of the McCain-Palin ticket in 2008 are in play at this time – barely.
Evidence of Romney's problem in Tea Party influenced states is that while Tea Party and conservative-backed office holders are solidifying their popularity, he does not seem to be benefiting from their popularity.
In the state of Michigan, one of Romney’s “home” states where he narrowly won the Republican primary. Romney’s post-primary approval fell and he trails Obama by 6 points or more – Democratic polling firm PPP has Obama leading Romney by 16 in Michigan.
In contrast, Obama’s job approval rating has gone up from 42 percent in September to 50 percent today, and his disapproval rating has dropped from 50 percent to 45 percent.
Michigan's Tea Party backed Governor Rick Snyder's approval rating of 38 percent in September has now hit 50 percent in the state. The Governor's disapproval rating is now down to 36 percent, compared to 46 percent in September.
Tea Party backed Florida Governor Rick Scott, whose “shakeup Tallahassee” agenda cost him some popularity as he made tough calls on the budget, has gone up 10 points recently and is now at 43 percent, statistically the same as Obama’s 43 percent. Romney’s multi-million dollar carpet bombing of Newt Gingrich in Florida gained him exactly 1 point over Obama to place him at 43 percent.
In Pennsylvania, after Rick Santorum dropped out, Romney didn’t run his usual barrage of negative ads. According to the Quinnipiac poll, Romney actually lost five points while running virtually unopposed in the Pennsylvania primary, and now trails Obama 47 percent to 39 percent.
Since March, Obama has gained two points while Romney lost three. Despite campaigning in the state, Romney still has a negative approval rating, with only 35 percent approving and 39 percent disapproving. Obama’s approval rating in Pennsylvania is 51 percent approve to 43 disapprove.
The states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida, were three of the top states where the Tea Party wave swept new constitutional conservative members into Congress. In Florida, four of the seven new Republicans were elected with significant Tea Party support, in Ohio the Tea Party backed candidates contributed five freshmen to the House Republican ranks, and in Pennsylvania four out of the five new Republicans in the delegation were elected with strong Tea Party support.
As Gallup noted, this enthusiasm gap is hurting Romney, “Obama's swing-state prospects also look a bit brighter than Romney's on the basis of voter enthusiasm. More than half of Obama's supporters, 55 percent, are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting in this year's presidential election, up from 49 percent saying this in March. By contrast, 46 percent of Romney's supporters are extremely or very enthusiastic, unchanged from 47 percent in March. Today's figures reflect a reversal from January, when 55 percent of Romney voters were extremely or very enthusiastic, compared with 50 percent of Obama voters.”
In most of the so-called “swing” states, the recent progress made by the GOP has been powered by Tea Party enthusiasm and Tea Party backed candidates. Unfortunately for Romney, while liberal and moderate support for him has predictably waned, the Tea Party enthusiasm that has been winning elections for the GOP in those key “swing states” has yet to rub-off on him.
Mitt Romney says he’ll take credit for the auto industry?
He truly is an idiot, isn’t he?
He wasn’t a decision maker in that bailout.
Some were bailed and some weren’t.
He said he didn’t support auto industry bailouts.
He did support bank/financial bailouts.
Now he does support what happened???
The trees are just the right size in Michigan!!
(what a doofus)
“Yes, as if Tea Party support just rubs on and off like hand lotion.”
Great line!
Yes, that is exactly what they think. They think conservatives will just fall in line like we always do because Romney is our only choice. It is political calculus at its most cynical.
The GOP and Romney went out of their way to let conservatives know that they don’t want our vote this time. It’s too bad for them since this is where a lot of volunteers come from.
To the “broken glassers”, I respect your choice, but you vote for Romney fully aware that you are voting for a pro abortion, pro bigger government, pro homosexual ticket.
Mittack 0bamney doesn’t generate excitement among conservatives?
Why would that be?
Well with Obama, we will be rid of him in 4 years. If Romney is elected, we will be stuck with Obama-lite for 8 years.
Great, vote your conscience. You have that luxury in ND, which Romney will win easily.
Well with Obama, we will be rid of him in 4 years. If Romney is elected, we will be stuck with Obama-lite for 8 years.
A Romney advisor bragged a couple of days ago that the auto bailout was Romney’s idea, or something like that. There was a thread on it.
You say he came out against the auto bailout??
If THAT’s true, I’m at a loss to understand what’s going on.
But anyway you look at this, it’s nuts.
If Obama has four more years, it won’t matter who is President after that. Everything that follows will just be rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
“I will crawl over broken glass to cast a vote against Obama.”
Well, keep that enthusiasm for the next election when you say the same thing about Romney.
Did you notice that Conservative HQ was talking about "approval rating" and that you are talking about presidential selection poll. Notice also, that Rasmussen doesn't include Gary Johnson and Virgil Goode by name. He asks if they support "3rd party"
Why not just have a poll for 1st party, 2nd party, and 3rd party? We can just forget names.
AB(w)hOR(es)
I reckon the ABO enthusiasm will increase exponentially as we get closer to election day 2012.
Mitt Romney - He’s whatever you want him to be.
“Well with Obama, we will be rid of him in 4 years. If Romney is elected, we will be stuck with Obama-lite for 8 years.”
Excellent way to put it. Voting for Romeny simply kicks the can down the road.
“I reckon the ABO enthusiasm will increase exponentially as we get closer to election day 2012.”
Probably, but always be careful of what you wish for. Romney is every bit a Communist Obama is.
It is hard to get enthusiastic about voting for the lesser of two evils, particularly when you are undecided whether Obama or Romney is the lesser of two evils.
LOL!
Right on the money, Bubba.
And if Romney were to be president, his track record in Massachusetts says he’ll side with Democrats on offensive legislation.
So: Romney + Rinos + Democrats = Liberal agenda.
And no one could stop them.
Thanks. Excellent point you make about the volunteers.
You people are lulling yourself into believing mitt could actually beat obama - he hasn't won one debate - only those the media said he did. In reality it is NONE!
Probably because we conservatives are shallow, low brow neanderthals.
Honestly, Uncle, in my case it's only cause he has a John Edwards hairdo. /sarc
You'll have to kill me to keep me from voting against him.
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