Posted on 03/23/2012 4:41:03 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
Texas is usually flyover country in the battle for the Republican presidential nomination.
But this year could be different, even with a delayed primary.
Although former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts is leading former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania in the hunt for delegates, it is next to impossible for Romney to wrap things up before the Texas primary on May 29. And Santorum has led most public opinion polls in conservative Texas, which has the country’s second-largest number of delegates at stake, with 155.
Two other factors point toward a competitive Texas race: Gov. Rick Perry’s endorsement of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, whose campaign has been struggling, and Rep. Ron Paul’s loyal following in his home state.
“There’s going to be presidential campaign activity for the first time, really, since 1976,” said Paul Bettencourt, a conservative talk show host and former tax assessor-collector in Harris County. “I think there will be an active race.”
On Thursday, Santorum swooped into San Antonio for a town-hall-style meeting, where he promised to mount a vigorous campaign in Texas and told voters that the state could help “reset” a race that many pundits have said is Romney’s to lose.
Texas normally holds its primary in March, but a battle over new maps for legislative and congressional districts forced a court-ordered delay this year.
More than a dozen states hold primaries between now and the Texas contest, so it is not clear how competitive the campaign will actually be. But unless Romney’s opponents pull out before late May, Texas will probably get more attention from the Republican candidates than it has received since the state began using primaries as part of the delegate selection process.
That first happened in 1976, a year of fierce competition between President Gerald Ford and former Gov. Ronald Reagan of California. Ford was the preferred candidate of the Republican establishment here, and he had piled up far more delegates than Reagan by the time of the May 1 primary.
But Reagan’s message of limited government and a more robust national defense struck a chord among voters, and he won Texas in a landslide, picking up every delegate.
Gilbert Garcia, author of Reagan’s Comeback: Four Weeks in Texas That Changed American Politics Forever, said Reagan’s win put him back into competition in the 1976 race. And though Reagan fell short at the convention in Kansas City, Mo., the Texas victory set the stage for his national triumph four years later, Garcia said.
Although Santorum could tap into the same coalition that Reagan put together 36 years ago, Romney will probably outspend his rivals. And money matters a lot in a state with so many expensive television markets.
A hot race could also significantly increase turnout, as the competition between Reagan and Ford did. That, in turn, could have an impact on the candidates running for the U.S. Senate and the hundreds of others competing in legislative and county contests.
Steve Munisteri, the state Republican Party chairman, said high turnout could also help Republicans expand its voter outreach ahead of November. A contested race could also leave bitterness and division behind, but Munisteri said that is the nature of politics. “I’ll take a risk of divisiveness in return for having people get more activated,” he said.
That first happened in 1976, a year of fierce competition between President Gerald Ford and former Gov. Ronald Reagan of California. Ford was the preferred candidate of the Republican establishment here, and he had piled up far more delegates than Reagan by the time of the May 1 primary.
But Reagan’s message of limited government and a more robust national defense struck a chord among voters, and he won Texas in a landslide, picking up every delegate."......
May 29th, TX GOP Primary - 155 delegates.
Steve Munisteri, the state Republican Party chairman, said high turnout could also help Republicans expand its voter outreach ahead of November. A contested race could also leave bitterness and division behind, but Munisteri said that is the nature of politics. “I’ll take a risk of divisiveness in return for having people get more activated,” he said.
Easy for him to say...He’s in bed with Romney...
Needless to say I’m not impressed one damn bit about the outcome of this election cycles schedule...It effecctively took Texas clearly out of any serious impact on this primary process...Sure soemone is going to get a hefty sum of delegates from Texas, but it’ll mainly be the crowd that has to get behind the potential nomminee mentality that will drive this process into doomsville...
Not only will Texas voters have to deal with the nonsense from the lefts usful idiots putting all the redistricting to court scrutiny, but the establishment republicans went along with it because they know Texas is the crown jewel of GOP delegate support for the GOP nomminee, and we know where their moderate position is on the candidate they want to take on the challenge of defeating Obama...
The only question I’m going to be asking from now on is basically, “When Romney loses to Obama in November...How much conservative credibility will the GOP have Nationally and locally from then on out???”
I’m placing my bet on “nil”...
I hope this is true, because I have so wanted to put a Newt sign in my yard, but was afraid it was going to be a moot point by May 29.
Unfortunately TX is proportional this time out rather than Winner Take All, loophole, or bonus.
Mitt Romney 32%
Rick Santorum 30%
Newt Gingrich 19%
Ron Paul 9%
Other 3%
Undecided 7%
If the choices were only Romney versus Santorum:
Rick Santorum 45%
Mitt Romney 43%
In 2008, McCain won 51% of the vote to Huckabee's 38% and Paul's 5%. Huckabee did best in east and northeast Texas, the counties closest to Arkansas, as well as in rural North and West Texas counties. McCain carried all urban areas, even very conservative West Texas cities like Lubbock, Amarillo, Midland, and Odessa.
Assuming Gingrich drops out by May, you will not have a Westerner vs. a Southerner (Texas has a foot in both camps), but two Yankees. My bet is that the more socially conservative of the two, Santorum, will win the race. Santorum has run an effective campaign with resources far more limited than Romney. His per vote cost is one-fourth of Romney's. The Ron Paul factor cannot be discounted in his home state of Texas. Four years ago, he reached double digits in the Coastal Bend area and metro Austin. It is not unreasonable to assume he will reach the low teens statewide and even carry Travis County. This will hurt Romney, as at least some Paul supporters would otherwise default to Romney.
Unless Santorum implodes and if Gingrich drops out, Santorum will carry the Lone Star State.
Tuesday 29 May 2012: 152 of Texas's 155 delegates to the Republican National
Convention are bound to presidential contenders in today's Texas Presidential Primary.
[General Rules for All Conventions and Meetings. Rule 38. Section 8. f.]
From the statewide vote, compute the number of delegates each candidate receives by
multiplying that candidate's percentage of the statewide vote by the total number (152) of
district and at-large delegates.
May 29 (Proportional Primary) 155 Delegates
| Poll | Date | Sample | Santorum | Romney | Gingrich | Paul | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 3/11 - 3/13 | -- | 32.5 | 29.5 | 19.5 | 8.5 | Santorum +3.0 |
| WPA | 3/11 - 3/13 | 750 LV | 35 | 27 | 20 | 8 | Santorum +8 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 3/12 - 3/12 | 750 LV | 30 | 32 | 19 | 9 | Romney +2 |
Newt is the only Reaganite figure in this race.
There’s no perfect such figure in existence (shock, even Reagan wasn’t always Reaganite), however, before the gang arrives to attack.
Most certainly Santorum is not.
If no Santorum, then Newt would sweep Texas as Reagan did.
Romney will do better than makes any sense, just as he has in the South generally, but he should lose it.
The only reason he will appear to do even better than he should do is because Santorum, Newt and Paul will split the anti-Romney vote 3 ways.
I will proudly cast my vote for Newt.
Could he, should he win Texas? Yes, but my guess is he won’t, and it’s because of Santorum and the religious vote. There’s nothing unique about this...but for Santorum Newt would sweep the south and southern border states, period.
But for Santorum, Newt would be the nominee, not Romney.
Newt himself is looking ahead to the convention and to the unbound delegates, and to trying by the convention rules to be placed in nomination so he can address the convention and have standing there.
We shall see about that. But that is his focus...stopping Romney from getting the magic number, taking the fight to Obama, articulating and highlighting OUR issues, and ever battling the news media, which he does so well.
Godspeed, Newt.
Bump!
I am voting for Newt in the Texas primary come hell or high water. And we have had a lot of rain out here in ETX recently.
I know he probably wont make it to the nomination...but I will at least be able to make my statement with my vote.
You are not alone in your plans to vote for Newt in Texas. If he has dropped out by the time we get to vote I really don’t know what I will do. I stayed home rather than vote for McCain in the primary last time, I can see myself doing that again.
Well, Santorum has committed verbal suicide when he said to vote for Romney was the same as voting for Obama....so if Newt is not on the ballot, I will vote for Romney.
In my book, I would vote for a bucket of rocks if that was what was running against Obama!
Use of the poll is not a predictor, but an indicator, along with historical trends in voting and sociology. Romney is more likely to track McCain, and Santorum Huckabee. McCain won Texas four years ago. That bodes well for Romney. However, there are two big ifs: whether Gingrich stays in the race for an additional two months if he slips into irrelevance and if Santorum can keep up his wins in the South and Plains states. In a Southern state, Gingrich voters are more likely to break toward Santorum. Also, Paul,who will not go quietly into the night, tends to draw some of Romney’s support, specifically economic conservatives who are also social liberals.
The cancer of Obama”care” now extends to choosing a “Public health expert for the World Bank Presidency.”
_______
The major problem with THE NINE SUPREMES is that they are chosen for political reasons by the POTUS, and then they vote as an un-accountable democracy, for a Nation that is NOT a Democracy, but a REPUBLIC.
As a result, THE NINE SUPREMES commonly vote 5 to 4 on most issues. Constitutionality is seldom a consideration, and their up-coming ruling on Obama”care” will prove my point.
Now is the time to stand and deliver to address our grievances to the dictates of the Left.
Oppose the dictates of Dictator Baby-Doc Barack!
Our ONLY chance to ABOLISH Obama”care” rests with THE NINE SUPREMES, because Romney will be defeated by Obama.
IMHO, if Romney is anointed as the RNC Nominee, THE main issue in the National Election, Obama”care,” will be taken off the campaign table. Hence, Romney will not only lose, but suffer another crushing, and sadly typical, RINO defeat.
To those who want poster ideas, here are a few ideas for demonstration posters:
Obama”care” was robo-signed by Congress, and is therefore illegal.
Obama”care” was 2700 pages long, and is still being written, but not by Congress: witness the forced contraception coverage recently added by HHS Regulators.
Obama”care” has caused “The Catholic Spring.”
Obama”care” reduces competition, and therefore is illegal by the 1890 Sherman Anti-Trust Law.
Obama”care” is designed to be a US Federal Government monopoly, with no competition.
Obama”care” also is illegal according to the US Constitution, because it violates our freedom of choice.
Will THE NINE SUPREMES notice any of these three violations? I seriously doubt it.
Impeached Bill Clinton proved that the US President is above US Federal Law, so anything that the President wants he gets, regardless of the Federal Laws that he has violated.
I am struggling with how to cast my vote if Romney gets the nomination, while praying Newt finds a way through Divine Providence to pull out a victory in a brokered convention.
As several have eloquently stated, it’s waaay past time for the GOP-E to reap the rewards of their actions in perpetually skewing the primary process toward the moderate squish candidate that is “next-in-line” (Dole, McCain, now Romney).
The nation is at a critical junction. Without drastic spending cuts, departmental eliminations (Energy, Education, EPA, NLRB, etc.), wholesale cleaning out of career lib/progressives in State, Defense, etc.), reigning in of the Federal Reserve and Federal Judiciary, our economy is toast, our new job production remains anemic, and our freedoms will continue to erode.
Newt is the ONLY candidate I see willing to make “big” ideas like the above part of his policies, which he has reams of documentation on implementing at his web site.
Romney & Santorum will just take us off the cliff at a slower speed than the dems.
I seriously may go third party or write-in if Romney gets the Republican nod.
W. Bush set back the conservative cause a couple of decades simply because he refused to draw a bright line between conservative and lib/progressive policies, with the exception of FINALLY taking it to the terrorists, but then he mucked that up with his “nation-building” proclivities.
Obama has done more to energize the conservative, patriotic, constitutional base than any moderate candidates the GOP-E has proferred in the last 15 years.
Perhaps another 4 years of Obama is what is required to get the entire voting public behind a true conservative alternative.
God help us all if this is true, but I can’t see a moderate making enough of a difference in our national trajectory to justify holding my nose and voting for them. Especially as it will fuel the MSM/progressive/dem meme that the conservatives are the cause of the coming misery.
Let the dems/MSM/progressives and GOP-E own it lock, stock, and barrel.
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