Posted on 03/16/2012 3:46:57 PM PDT by Steelfish
MARCH 16, 2012 Tampa Tempest Newt Gingrich Plots Convention Chaos. By Robert Costa
As he waited for the returns on Tuesday, Newt Gingrich didn’t pay much attention to the soft flicker of Fox News. Instead, as he sat with his family and a few aides in a suite at the Wynfrey Hotel in Birmingham, Ala., he was quietly glued to his BlackBerry, thumbing his way through e-mails. He was mostly cheerful, according to those in the room. He reminisced about campaigns past with his daughters. He reviewed his schedule; he bantered with his wife, Callista; he settled on a purple tie. As he sipped a Diet Coke, he casually prepared for his evening speech.
The takeaway from the relative calm was clear: This was just another night in another city. He’d make his extemporaneous remarks, his aides would pack their bags, and within a few hours, they’d board a plane and head to the next battleground.
“He never discussed dropping out, not even a whisper,” says one Gingrich staffer. “It was business as usual.” His youngest daughter, Jackie Cushman, concurs. “It was never tense,” she says. “People forget that he’s been running since 1974. He doesn’t get anxious.” Downstairs, the scene was more apprehensive. There was a dwindling crowd of Newt enthusiasts. After the networks declared Rick Santorum the winner of both Alabama and Mississippi, Beltway scribes began to write the campaign’s obituary. (snip)
Days later, that consensus remains. Gingrich is committed to staying in the race until the convention, according to his advisers. He believes that there will be chaos within the party come August, and that — with a bit of luck, a clever floor strategy, and a powerful speech — he could build a winning coalition.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
More like sour grapes by the official spoiler in the race. True to his description as a “Hindenberg ready to explode,” Gingrich is now on stage displaying all of the qualities of an erratic and crippled boar thrashing around the land that will make for an Obama God-send. If he quitted after Santorum’s spectacular Trifecta, Santorum would likely have carried WA, MI, and OH and the Romney candidacy would have been reduced to ashes. Gingrich with baggage heavy enough to sink a cruise ship, now needs to do the honorable thing and do what Bachman, Cain, and Perry did before him, to withdraw from the race. Enough of this ego. It’s going to come back to bite him in the back.
There are at least 3 “superdelegates” for each state. Those are usually 3 people high in the the GOP heirarchy in the state. In some states, they are obligated to pledge to the winner of the state primary. In other states they are free to pledge to whoever they wish.
What do you bet than when this whole game was set up, they figured for Romney. I bet the states where they are pledged to the winner, are states that favor Romney. They will be free to choose in states where they knew it would be tougher for Romney. LOL
What a scam.
Newt must stay in the race till the end. If Newt quits, Romney will end up getting more delegates.
Your hyperbole aside, I frankly think that either having a one-day, nationwide, closed primary or simply choosing the nominee at the convention are both better alternatives than what we have now, which is to have the primary season strung out over five money-wasting months and have a large share of the people voting end up wasting their vote because their candidate drops out early, etc. etc.
So you are for a fractured free-for-all topsy-turvy convention? Even Obama could not have hoped and prayed for this much of luck.
They think that Romney has put such an emphasis on the math that he could be vulnerable should he begin to stumble.
Newt's strategy going forward is based on Romney "stumbling" or "collapsing." ON THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY the numbers and type of states remaining to vote indicate Romney is going get over the hump of 1,144, probably in June.
The only potential shake-up is if all the votes go to ONE conservative, and he is able to shut Romney out by performing about as well in the "winner-take-all" contests as Newt and Rick's current votes combined would amount to.
If Newt wants to be a player at a contested convention, one of the only things he can do is figure out how to get all his voters to vote for Santorum from now on. Because there won't be a contested convention otherwise, unless that dramatic Romney collapse comes out of nowhere.
With the GOP Convention sucking all the air out of the room, Dumplin Ears will not be pleased.
People do not vote based on which party had the calmest convention.
The formerly great National Review says “Plans Convention Chaos”;
Decent conservatives say “plans struggle for the soul of the Party”.
National Review and the Romneyites seem to be descending into desperation. May they continue sinking into the quicksands of their desperation. If Jesus came back and took the nomination away from him, Romney WOULD NOT support Jesus in the general election.
Good grief. You act like having a convention be what conventions were actually intended to be once upon a time would be like Armageddon or something.
Sheesh. Candidates will make their speeches. Delegates will vote, vote again, vote again, go get some drinks, vote again, vote again, take a pool break, vote again, vote again, and finally end up settling on somebody.
I don’t know...I saw obama and biteMe trying to attack the Republicans and they look like babies because they have to attack all 3. They can’t take one stand against a single person. This is going to turn traditional wisdom on its head where they think you need the nomination locked up early. Let them fight it out and keep the rats guessing on who they have to unload on.
I just wish they all 3 would attack obama a bit more.
I like it!
It’s about damn time that the Republican snobs feel the wrath of the conservatives in a face to face faceoff!
May Newt teach those fat bastards a thing or two about confrontation!!!
That’s nonsense. Due to the various funky winner-take-all and threshold rules in the states, Santorum would have a better shot in states with almost 2/3rds of the delegates without Newt in the race than he would with Newt in the race. Case in point, in AL and MI, Santorum would have gotten all of Newt’s delegates and taken between 11-17 of Romney’s away with Newt out of the race.
Anyone who hasn’t ANALYZED THE MATH of delegates and the specific state allocation rules can only make totally worthless comments as to who would get more delegates under different conditions. If you have analyzed the math, show us your calculations. Otherwise, your comments are beyond useless and are counterproductive.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2859712/posts
I just wish our convention was AFTER the rats this year. Can you image who they’d attack at theirs?
That’s a good analysis you make. I believe if a candidate withdraws, the delegates acquired up to that point are no longer committed and may choose to join any camp. During last Tuesday’s primaries, John King of CNN sketched a hypothetical albeit rosy scenario on his electronic tally board, where if Gingrich does withdraw now, Santorum’s numbers could move up whereby he is within catch-up distance of Romney. If Gingrich, on the other hand remains in the race, this is simply not a possibility.
Although the CA primary with delegates allotted based on district voting is on June 05th, with Romney leading Santorum by some 20 points (and if this holds), it should be all over by June. Thus you make a good point that mathematically, barring “an act of God” Romney should have the delegate magic by June.
Oh yeah? Tell that to the Democrats in 1968
Whether or not Newt does the right thing by being a kingmaker, he will probably be marginalized anyway from now on. His money is all but gone and his supporters are jumping ship.
Hoping it’s not too late. Santorum is going to have to work that much harder and so will we!
A hectic, contested convention that keeps Romney from the nomination is better than smooth sailing for the flipper.
Right now Gingrich and Santorum tag-teaming are doing more to keep it from Romney than if Gingrich were to drop out. Later, when we get to winner-take-all states that likely won’t be true. But for Gingrich to campaign hard now and then simply suspend his campaigning late while holding onto his delegates, if he doesn’t overtake Santorum again somehow, is probably the best thing.
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