Posted on 03/13/2012 9:15:46 PM PDT by South40
THe problem is, with Newt and Rick splitting the conservative vote, neither is taking 50%. And so the media can spin the narrative that they can’t really win, even though they claim Romney is inevitable and Romney only rarely takes 50%.
Of course, if Romney would get 50% without both Santorum and Gingrich in a state, then it’s clearly better to have them both in.
Does anybody think that Romney would have taken over HALF of the Gingrich votes? If not, then Santorum would have taken 50% without Gingrich. If he had, Santorum would have 37 delegates, and Romney 0. Instead, it’s Santorum 13, Romney 12, Gingrich 12.
So in Mississippi, conservatives were hurt and Romney helped by Gingrich.
In Alabama, the same is true. Santorum would clearly have taken 50% in a two-man race, unless you believe over half the Gingrich votes would have gone to Romney. And at 50%, Santorum would have taken all of the statewide delegates.
But in Alabama, they had a lot of district delegates, and Santorum would have had to have taken 50% in each. So Romney probably would have taken some delegates.
With Gingrich in, if the two had been able to keep Romney below 20%, they could have shut Romney out. And if they had come in 1-2 in the districts, they would have shut out Romney there as well. So if GIngrich had done a bit better in Alabama, Romney could have been kept to zero, or if Gingrich was gone, Romney could have been kept to close to zero.
That is the problem. If there’s a true proportional delegate selection, it’s probably better having two people in the race; if it’s 50% winner-take-all, we might as well have one candidate, because nobody’s going to get 50% with two in the race.
And in the meantime, the relatively even split plays into the narrative that Santorum isn’t really getting a lot of support, the same with Gingrich.
We’ve had to ignore the polls for a LONG time now to make the argument that Newt was the only candidate who could beat Obama, given that he never polls near beating Obama.
The comment you are responded to was not “hateful”. It was a stated opinion about Newt’s chances. You can certainly disagree, but your characterization of a difference of opinion as hateful is simply wrong.
Then we must be really screwed, since the “least electable person” has beaten Newt in all but 4 states. If the “least electable” keeps beating Newt, doesn’t that make newt “the REALLY least electable”?
If Santorum ends up being the GOP nominee, I think he'll definitely be a bold contrast to our Dear Leader, and not just on economic issues. One thing's for sure, when the economy is failing Americans will gripe about a lot of things. Obummer will get the blame for the economy while, at the same time, Rick will benefit from his conservative moral stance. In a time of economic prosperity, Americans are much more inclined to "forget" about the moral decline in the country.
There are several factors working in the GOP's favor this time around. We just have to stay on message and on target.
Santorum is safe. He will be painted as a nut because he is a practicing Catholic, the MSM and Obama think that that fact will kill him with women. What they fail to realize is that a majority of women are Pro-Life. A vast majority of women would love to be married to strong family oriented man who shows true love to his family of SEVEN children. Remember how Obama is always portrayed as such a good father.
Santorum is not the problem. Romney is. Santorum and Gingrich can draw a contrast with Obama. Mitt can not. Santorum has shown he can excite people to vote for him, Romney has to buy his support 20 - 1.
Fact
Romney is the least desired candidate by the conservatives.
Fact
Gingrich has the least chance to win the race for the Republican Party.
Fact
Santorum may have stronger conservative agendas hard to penetrate the Independents, but is the most favored candidate within the conservative, and has better chance to defeat Romney than Gingrich. Romney is not a choice, and Gingrich can’t survive, so even there is less chance to win over Obama, Santorum is the most realistic candidate for conservatives.
Fact
If Gingrich steps down now, and aligns with Santorum, there is better chance for Romney to be defeated.
But...but...but...Captain Kangaroo raised the flag at Iwo Jima and saved Lee Marvin's life during fierce combat! And Mr. Rogers was a Navy Seal who wore those sweaters to cover the tatoos on his arms and muscular biceps!
Oh yes, and Obama is 100% qualified to serve as US President.
/s <- as if it's really necessary
The fact that Santorum is NOT beating Obama in the polls WITH all the baggage Obama has now ALONG with the slip in his ratings is troublesome. Obama should not even be IN the polls but he is...I’m afraid Santorum is NOT electable and will get his proverbial clock cleaned come November.
Pity - that was one of better insults I’ve seen.
Santorum is the McGovern of the right.
“Least electable? A serial cheater married 3x who does global warming ads with Pelosi and wants amnesty for long time illegals who has 13% support nationally among republicans. Is that more electable?”
Exactly. Also don’t forget the “erratic, unstable” personality meme, and the age factor. In many ways Gingrich is the McCain of this election.
It was interesting to see in the exit polling from AL and MS that Santorum did the best by far among younger voters - and VERY well among women.
I will support Newt if he somehow wins the nomination, but he is very clearly the least electable of the Romney, Santorum, Gingrich triumvirate. Given some of the extreme positions the Gingrich supporters take on these threads, I hope they can return to sanity and vote against 0 once Gingrich is out of the race - sooner or later.
So do I (I also have problems with his whiny, preachy persona, which is what seems to attract the so-called "Christian right).
The only person who offers a genuinely conservative option is Gingrich. However, it seems to be that the voters actually aren't looking for somebody who is conservative, but basically want a big-government nanny-stater, just like Obama in everything but for a few social issues. Either Romney or Santorum would fill this bill. And neither one of them will get elected; why vote for a mere imitation?
I think this shows that GOP voters have tacitly adopted the socialist welfare state as the default model for their future, and really are little different from the average Democrat voter.
“The fact that Santorum is NOT beating Obama in the polls WITH all the baggage Obama has now ALONG with the slip in his ratings is troublesome. Obama should not even be IN the polls but he is...”
Santorum has led in the polls against 0 recently, but I think it’s amazing that you’re ignoring the fact that Gingrich is well behind Santorum in that regard. The difference is that Gingrich is a well known quantity, while quite a bit of the country still knows little about Santorum and his many admirable qualities.
“I’m afraid Santorum is NOT electable and will get his proverbial clock cleaned come November.”
The other point I would make here is that, in my humble opinion, 0 will be in worse trouble as this year drags on. Gas prices are likely to keep rising, and just as bad, the EPA is shutting down over 20 coal-fired electric plants this spring. Summer is likely to bring rolling blackouts, and overheated voters with no air conditioning. Electricity prices are almost sure to rise as well.
0’s energy policy alone may well sink him in this election, almost regardless of who the Republican candidate happens to be.
“A serial cheater married 3x who does global warming ads with Pelosi and wants amnesty for long time illegals “
You just post Rush is a good guy! Yet he’s married 3 or 4 times! Yes he cheated but he also converted to Catholicism (maybe out of convenience, IDK) so may be sorry and should be forgiven. Yes, one TV ad with Pelosi which they used for stills in magazines etc. contrary to popular belief,some on the right believe in global warming (I don’t)Until someone has the balls to round up all the illegals and deport the them something has to be done. Newt has great ideas to turn the country around. Check out Santorum’s voting record it’s been posted on FR many times.
Obama received 47 percent support to Romney’s 49 percent and 49 percent to Santorum’s 46 percent...........
........The Washington Post and ABC News polled 1,003 adults between March 7 and March 10 with a sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
This is a Washington Post Poll showing that both Romney and Santorum are within the margin of error. It also is a poll of ADULTS, wghich consistantly favors Democrats and Incumbents as opposed to registerred, or likely voter polls.
Also just three weeks ago a poll showed that Obama was crushing all GOP contenders:
In a general election contest against Mitt Romney, the president leads his Republican opponent 51 to 43 percent
(SNIP)
Meanwhile, Obama would lead Rick Santorum 52 to 43 percent, Newt Gingrich 52 to 42 percent, and Ron Paul 53 to 44 percent.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0212/73154.html#ixzz1p6l95CO0
Santorum is well positioned at seven months out.
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