Posted on 02/25/2012 9:27:36 AM PST by Brices Crossroads
I have watched as the predictable polls have been produced showing Mitt Romney creeping back into the lead in Michigan by the exiguous margin of 1.6% according to the RealClear Politics Average. But is Willard Mitt Romney really ahead or not?
No one knows for certain but I have done a little analysis of the polling during this primary season and have come away with several salient factoids. The first is that Romney nearly always overpolls. He was narrowly ahead in Iowa by 1.3% and he lost by .1%. His lead in New Hampshire was 20, while his margin of victory was 16.4%. In South Carolina, Romney trailed Gingrich by only 5 in the RCP average but was walloped by 12.5% on election day. His polling matched his performance only in Florida, where polls showed him ahead 13 and he won by 14. Only in Nevada, fueled by a huge Mormon block vote did he actually underpoll, winning by 29 while his poll average was about 23.
In Colorado Romney was polling ahead of Santorum by 38.5% to 26.5%, just two days before the election. Santorum beat him by 5.5% on election day. In Minnesota, Romney trailed by 2 the day before election day and was clobbered by Santorum on election day by 18. In the Missouri primary, Romney trailed Santorum by 13 on the day before the election, but was clobbered by 30 the next day.
It is difficult to deny that Romney consistently and often dramatically overpolls.
Second, Santorum tends to underpoll. His vote total exceeded his polling margin in every contest contest except New Hampshire (where he overpolled by 2) and Nevada (where he broke even). He underpolled by 8 in Iowa, 6.2 in South Carolina, .4 in Florida, 12 in Minnesota, 14 in Colorado and 10 in Missouri, according to RealClearPolitics.
Finally, with specific regard to Michigan, I make two observations about its primary which is an open primary in which Democrats and Independents can vote.
First Romney has under-performed in states with open primaries, such as Missouri, Minnesota, South Carolina and even Iowa, which permits anyone to change their registration on caucus night to vote. Santorum, on the other hand, has over-performed by wide margins in all four states with open primaries. Romney-by contrast has overperformed only in the two closed primary states of Florida (albeit narrowly) and Nevada (with the Mormon assist).
Finally, Open Primary states are notoriously difficult to poll. As the election approaches, the pollsters try to poll "likely voters" in order to improve their accuracy. But how do you poll likely voters if you do not know what your pool is? If you do not know who will show up, your poll isn't worth a pitcher of warm spit. No doubt this was a major reason the polls were so far off in Colorado, Missouri, Minnesota, Iowa and South Carolina, while they were closer to the mark in Florida and Nevada. The supposedly accurate Rasmussen had Newt up over Romney only 33-31 three days before the open South Carolina primary. Romney got blown away 40-27 on election night. Now Rasmussen has stuck his toe in the water of another open primary state, Michigan, this time giving Romney a 6 point lead (which is fueling Mitt's slender 1.6% lead in the RCP average). If he is as wrong in Michigan as he was in South Carolina, Romney is actually five points behind.
The bottom line on Romney's alleged 1.6% lead over Santorum is that it is likely a deficit, perhaps a substantial one. Any poll lead Romney had in Open Michigan would be suspect because of the difficulty in polling open primary states and the fact that (at least so far this cycle) Santorum has overperformed in open primary states while Romney has miserably underperformed.
I have no idea whether the current polls are honest attempts to gauge a very difficult electorate or whether they might be push polls designed to depress Santorum's turnout. (Rasmussen is a pretty well known GOP Establishment pollster, who is well disposed to Romney). Santorum supporters should not be dispirited at all by these polls which, when taken in the context of other such polls this cycle, suggest that Rick Santorum is poised for a major upset victory in Michigan this Tuesday night.
The Michigan Democrat Party encourages corssover voting
The enemy of our enemy is our friend!
But is Michigan a state where you don’t have to be registered as a D or R to vote?
The stats in the article are from REALCLEARPOLITICS:
Just email them the article and tell them to chick the stats.
Anyone in Michigan can vote, Democrat, GOP or Independent. You just have to be a registered voter
Check your private messages, BC. I sent you a good contact email for the Santorum people.
I wish I could get this analyis posted in Michigan on conservative websites and facebook pages ...
Why can’t this be done? I’m not that savvy with FB, etc. but some Michigan and other Freepers must be.
Newt, on the other hand, is by far, the most dangerous to Romney's plan than all the other candidates combined. Especially in the above described venue.
As far as I can tell, the reason Mitt jumped up so high was 2 factors... The flash polls after the debate on Thursday which Santorum flubbed, and the results of early voting which is already being counted and reported.
http://msnbcmedia3.msn.com/j/MSNBC/Components/Video/120222/nn_05cto_poll_120222.standard.jpg
“The Michigan Democrat Party encourages corssover voting”
And Willard is helping by bashing Unions in the run up to the primary. Union Members made up 28% of the GOP primary electorate in 2008. Willard bashes the Union bosses hard, but here is the faint praise he has for the rank and file:
“Look, unions play an important role; I have no problem with union members and feel they make a real contribution,” he said. “But let me tell you, the union bosses, that’s a different group.”
He has “no problem” with Union Members!? What a tin ear this dude has. Not having a problem is hardly a ringing endorsement of the people who make the cars, work in the factories and the coal mines and generally make America work for elitists like Romney.
Romney=worst candidate evahhhhhh!
Willard Romney was 80% to win Colorado and Minnesota at one point, too.
Those habitual bettors who frequent Intrade are now dead broke.
Okay. Actually I had NO idea what I was talking about when I said that they were useless. I’m just emotionally unstable right now. :-)
What about the trendlines though? It seems to me most of the candidates who won bigger than was previously polled in the state were on an uptrend over the previous few days. Santorum had been trending up in IA, Newt in SC, Romney in FL, Santorum before his hat trick. That would indicate that Romney would be on the way to a win since he has moved up in the polls the past couple days.
The big question will be motivated turnout. I do know that the hard core Anti-Romney and Santorum voters will be there. Will the mushy middle turnout out for Mitt? I'm not sure. Those negative ads and robos can backfire at times. Blue collar democrats and independents, significant in Michigan will be more apt to cross over based on social issues and problems with Romney's wall street persona.
Another thing is that Michigan is allocating votes based on the new congressional districts. One candidate can win the state and lose the delegate race.
I got another call this morning from Mitt. (rolls eyes) Five on my machine yesterday.
Mary,
I’m a Romney supporter and while I think your position and actions are off - I’d most certainly care for your lab. We take in/give out about 5 dogs a year as is and my Dane has grown used to the arrival of strangers. In a very un-Romney like fashion, s/he could even ride in the car with me in the car to FL. Seriously though, drive to Detroit and make your case for Santorum. He’s not my guy but I know that you feel best about an election when you know that you did all that you can do. So go make the case for your guy!
There’s a big election after the primary and I while I know I’m in the minority of Romney supporters on FR th at nearly everyone here wants to see the end of the Obama presidency.
I hope you’re right but the thing I hate most about polls is that they so often pan out.
From local elections in my town — just for a bitter mayoral race — I know too many calls can turn one off of a candidate. It definitely happened to me.
I was like, where does this guy get the money to send out all these flyers and make all these annoying calls.
It may work up to a point but then it backfires.
Why is it we believe the polls when Santorum is in the lead, but when he’s not, we dismiss them? I heard a lot of theories about the polling in Florida that said that Romney wasn’t leading by as much as they polls were saying, and yet he won pretty handily. I hate to say it, but I think the polls may be accurate. Negative campaigning does work.
“I’m a Romney supporter”
sorry sick1...couldn’t focus after that.
But I think you said something about my dog. So glad to see we have one thing in common in that we both like dogs! :-)
Is it because he is a radical supporter of the homosexual agenda, the most aggressively pro-abortion Republican that we have ever seen rise to this level, his failure as a Governor when he won that one election?
I think it was because he wanted to get banned.
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