What about the trendlines though? It seems to me most of the candidates who won bigger than was previously polled in the state were on an uptrend over the previous few days. Santorum had been trending up in IA, Newt in SC, Romney in FL, Santorum before his hat trick. That would indicate that Romney would be on the way to a win since he has moved up in the polls the past couple days.
What about the trendlines though?
The difference may be Time. There isn’t much time left to have some other candidate rise. Newt probably can’t get much of a bump at this point, because of all the Santorum voters now, and Newt’s supporters have to decide as they go into the booth whether they want to vote for Newt at any cost, or whether they want to keep Romney out. Because of the time factor, there may be more of the latter than previously.