Posted on 02/25/2012 9:27:36 AM PST by Brices Crossroads
I have watched as the predictable polls have been produced showing Mitt Romney creeping back into the lead in Michigan by the exiguous margin of 1.6% according to the RealClear Politics Average. But is Willard Mitt Romney really ahead or not?
No one knows for certain but I have done a little analysis of the polling during this primary season and have come away with several salient factoids. The first is that Romney nearly always overpolls. He was narrowly ahead in Iowa by 1.3% and he lost by .1%. His lead in New Hampshire was 20, while his margin of victory was 16.4%. In South Carolina, Romney trailed Gingrich by only 5 in the RCP average but was walloped by 12.5% on election day. His polling matched his performance only in Florida, where polls showed him ahead 13 and he won by 14. Only in Nevada, fueled by a huge Mormon block vote did he actually underpoll, winning by 29 while his poll average was about 23.
In Colorado Romney was polling ahead of Santorum by 38.5% to 26.5%, just two days before the election. Santorum beat him by 5.5% on election day. In Minnesota, Romney trailed by 2 the day before election day and was clobbered by Santorum on election day by 18. In the Missouri primary, Romney trailed Santorum by 13 on the day before the election, but was clobbered by 30 the next day.
It is difficult to deny that Romney consistently and often dramatically overpolls.
Second, Santorum tends to underpoll. His vote total exceeded his polling margin in every contest contest except New Hampshire (where he overpolled by 2) and Nevada (where he broke even). He underpolled by 8 in Iowa, 6.2 in South Carolina, .4 in Florida, 12 in Minnesota, 14 in Colorado and 10 in Missouri, according to RealClearPolitics.
Finally, with specific regard to Michigan, I make two observations about its primary which is an open primary in which Democrats and Independents can vote.
First Romney has under-performed in states with open primaries, such as Missouri, Minnesota, South Carolina and even Iowa, which permits anyone to change their registration on caucus night to vote. Santorum, on the other hand, has over-performed by wide margins in all four states with open primaries. Romney-by contrast has overperformed only in the two closed primary states of Florida (albeit narrowly) and Nevada (with the Mormon assist).
Finally, Open Primary states are notoriously difficult to poll. As the election approaches, the pollsters try to poll "likely voters" in order to improve their accuracy. But how do you poll likely voters if you do not know what your pool is? If you do not know who will show up, your poll isn't worth a pitcher of warm spit. No doubt this was a major reason the polls were so far off in Colorado, Missouri, Minnesota, Iowa and South Carolina, while they were closer to the mark in Florida and Nevada. The supposedly accurate Rasmussen had Newt up over Romney only 33-31 three days before the open South Carolina primary. Romney got blown away 40-27 on election night. Now Rasmussen has stuck his toe in the water of another open primary state, Michigan, this time giving Romney a 6 point lead (which is fueling Mitt's slender 1.6% lead in the RCP average). If he is as wrong in Michigan as he was in South Carolina, Romney is actually five points behind.
The bottom line on Romney's alleged 1.6% lead over Santorum is that it is likely a deficit, perhaps a substantial one. Any poll lead Romney had in Open Michigan would be suspect because of the difficulty in polling open primary states and the fact that (at least so far this cycle) Santorum has overperformed in open primary states while Romney has miserably underperformed.
I have no idea whether the current polls are honest attempts to gauge a very difficult electorate or whether they might be push polls designed to depress Santorum's turnout. (Rasmussen is a pretty well known GOP Establishment pollster, who is well disposed to Romney). Santorum supporters should not be dispirited at all by these polls which, when taken in the context of other such polls this cycle, suggest that Rick Santorum is poised for a major upset victory in Michigan this Tuesday night.
Ping!
Dear Father I hope he doesn’t.
Wanna kill Conservatism? Vote Romney.
The bottom line on Romney’s alleged 1.6% lead over Santorum is that it is likely a deficit, perhaps a substantial one.
***Maybe Romney will rest on his laurels with his supposed lead and take it easy.
Thanks BC. Just the kind of update I was hoping for. Will Michigan Freepers post about what you are sensing, seeing or hearing for the rest of us who aren’t there?
I was going to make the seven hour drive to Detroit but I’m afraid I’ll lose my temper and be carried off by the riot police for hitting a Mitt supporter or two over the head with my Santorum yard sign.My six grandchildren might be embarrassed to see me on CBS.
Um, come to think of it, they’d be proud(and think it was normal for me) but who would take care of my labrador whilst I was in jail?
Our next three contests will go, imho..
Michigan: Santorum by 3
Baja Utah (AZ): Romney by 9
Washington State: Santorum by 10
I can't believe it isn't having an effect, most people are not as savvy at finding the truth as FR participants are.
We shall see.
Mary, I honestly think these polls especially Rasmussen are push polls designed to drive down Santorum’s turnout. Actually, Michigan looks better than even for Santorum.
I wish I could get this analyis posted in Michigan on conservative websites and facebook pages and distributed to Santorum’s troops so they know they are winning and need to keep the pressure on.
A week ago Santorum had the edge. The debate this week didn't do Santorum any favors.
Mitt Romney to win the 2012 Michigan Primary
80.9%
CHANCE
Last prediction was: $8.09 / share
Today's Change: +$0.09 (+1.1%)
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=756493
Your observation about the difficulty (if not impossibility) of choosing samples in open-primary states is very good.
It would seem that Romney’s failure to meet the polling expectations is due to a lack of enthusiasm on the part of his voters.
He isn’t a very exciting guy, and the old message of reaching across the aisle and doing the politically expedient thing isn’t a very motivating reason to go out and cast for him.
Don’t count Santorum or Gingrich out just yet. The speech that Romney gave yesterday was far from a barn burner. Poor fellow, has no conviction, no fire in the belly, and, is boring to boot. I call him aptly, John McCain #2. And....I really dislike McCain for the whimp he was in 2008 when he had the opportunity to rip the political heart out of Obama because of Rev. Jeremiah Wright, and did nothing about it, other then to tell us what a good, decent man, anti-American Obama was. Folks in Michigan and Arizona, you have an opportunity to shine for freedom and your country. Vote for either Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich this coming Tuesday!!! Believe me, Romney is not the one!!!
The problem with Romney’s schtick is that people have seen it for so long. His lies and attacks. They are sick of it and of him. They know he packed the last debate with his henchmen to boo. And they know that he and Rue Paul have entered into a Faustian pact. And more to the point they know he is a liberal elitist who put across Romney Care gay marriage. They also know he supported the WallStreet bailout for Goldman Sachs, but told Detroit (which gave him his start) to drop dead. He is a disloyal weasel.
Add this to the fact that they just don’t like the little effeminate preppy.
No conservative believes that Rick Santorum is not much more conservative than Romney. And the blue collar Democrats in Macomb county can’t wait to get out and vote against Romney. I just don’t see how Romney gets enough of a turnout in MI to win.
Not only that but the Democrats own “operation” chaos may help Santorum as well..
It will bite them in *ss in the end, when Santorum beats the one, but for now I’ll accept their help in defeating a RINO!
“It would seem that Romney’s failure to meet the polling expectations is due to a lack of enthusiasm on the part of his voters.
He isn’t a very exciting guy, and the old message of reaching across the aisle and doing the politically expedient thing isn’t a very motivating reason to go out and cast for him.”
So what you are saying is the Republican voters are just like RAT voters. They are a bunch of non-thinking sheep who expect the party “leaders” to tell them how to vote.
I have the ear of some staffers/advisors. Please send me all you have to forward.
I just wrote to suggest that they consider Newt a friend and pull all negative ads about him. Think Operation Chaos.
I hope your analysis is correct Brice.
oh and Rasmussen is a Democrat.
The Michigan Democrat Party encourages corssover voting as a way (they think) to weaken the one they perceive as the frontrunner. They did it to George Bush in 2000 and he lost to McCain there. They did it to Reagan in 1980 and he lost to Bush the in 1980.
Last time, the GOP (led buy Rush) did it to Obamam and Hillary won there.
Plus there will be a lot of Michigan blue collar Democrats who just can’t stand Romney, because he is a two faced liar and a carpet bagger.
Intrade=Useless indicator
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.