Posted on 02/17/2012 5:48:02 AM PST by Kaslin
In a campaign defined by Republican reluctance to embrace Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum has emerged as the latest not-Romney candidate to surge ahead. While it's impossible to predict what will happen in this volatile election season, the data suggests that Santorum might be more of a challenge for Romney than earlier flavors of the month.
The latest Rasmussen Reports poll of the GOP race shows that Rick Santorum leads Mitt Romney by 12 points, 39 percent to 27 percent. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul are far behind. In and of itself, that's nothing new. The man from Massachusetts has at times trailed Michele Bachmann, Donald Trump, Chris Christie, Rick Perry, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich in the polls.
What is new are the numbers from a head-to-head matchup with no other candidates in the race. Santorum leads Romney 55 percent to 34 percent. None of the earlier Romney alternatives could manage better than a toss-up in such a contest.
Those numbers show that Santorum picks up 16 points when other candidates drop out. Romney adds just 7 to his column. Santorum makes huge gains among conservative voters when others drop out of the race. Among non-conservatives, Santorum and Romney gain roughly equal amounts. For the first time, the numbers show that if one of Romney's challengers drops out, the other challenger will overwhelmingly benefit. Gingrich supporters, by a three-to-one margin, would vote for Santorum over Romney if that was the final choice.
Both Romney and Santorum are well-liked by Republican Primary voters, but Santorum has a slight advantage on this pointm as well. Seventy-five percent offer a favorable opinion of Santorum, while 66 percent say the same of Romney.
There is a huge passion gap favoring Santorum, though. Forty percent of Republican primary voters have a very favorable opinion of Santorum. Just 18 percent are that enthusiastic about Romney.
The one thing keeping Romney afloat is that he is still perceived as the strongest general election candidate. For some Republicans, that's enough. But to survive the Santorum challenge, Romney needs to give primary voters something more, something positive. GOP voters want a reason to vote for him beyond the fact that he has the most money and the best organization.
Team Romney needs to acknowledge that Republican voters are not only strongly opposed to President Obama's agenda but that they don't think much of Washington Republicans, either. They want a president who would shake up the good old boys network in Washington rather than join it. To date, Romney's attitude signals that he'd be more comfortable leading the club than challenging it.
Santorum has a very different challenge. First, he must survive the onslaught of ads coming from the Romney campaign. Then, he must convince Republican voters that he can win the general election in November. Electability is still the most important factor for Republican voters. If Santorum can neutralize the electability argument, he could become Romney's worst nightmare.
The next primary competitions are slated for Feb. 28 in Arizona and Michigan. If Romney wins both states, the race will probably be over. However, if Santorum can pull off a victory that day, he will be far more than the latest flavor of the month.
“He has more of a plan than any of the others.”
I know that Newt is all about plans. I can remember the Contract With America. That was a written plan that stormed Washington in 1994. He has also come out with a plan to get gas under $2.20 per gallon.
“And look at what his value system is rather than expect him to have a multi-level plan at this point.”
I have looked at that value system, and it lines up with mine. Newt’s does as well. It may be true that Newt has had some issues in his personal life, but seems to be repentant. I can deal with that, because I’m not perfect either.
“It’ll also be about the kind of people he will pick to surround him and help him..and I think he will choose wisely ..and know that he can’t do it alone.”
Yes, that is true. We know that Secretaries and others do a lot of the legwork, but he still has to put up a clear plan for what he will do, and demonstrate real leadership abilities.
I really like Santorum, but he doesn’t strike me as someone who can lead and carry a team. It seems that he is trying to play Mr. Niceguy for the most part. One can look at Newt and see that his abrupt style hurts him a lot. However, until Santorum shows he has some fire in his belly, and can carry a team, he’s not going to beat Obama.
In all honesty, I really like him. He will definitely get my vote in November if he wins the nomination, but if I had to vote in the primary today, Newt gets my vote.
Bright enough to look beyond a DNC media sponsored debate for what a candidate will do and bright enough to see through your bull$hit.
Keep supporting your candidate with slander of conservatives and personal attacks rather than accomplishment, we’ll see how many you win over. But as many anti-Santorum screeds you post, I guess Newt’s getting his money’s worth...
Newt Gingrich accused of ‘buying’ followers on Twitter
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/twitter/8677715/Newt-Gingrich-accused-of-buying-followers-on-Twitter.html
Bright enough to look beyond a DNC media sponsored debate for what a candidate will do and bright enough to see through your bull$hit.
Keep supporting your candidate with slander of conservatives and personal attacks rather than accomplishment, we’ll see how many you win over. But as many anti-Santorum screeds you post, I guess Newt’s getting his money’s worth...
Newt Gingrich accused of ‘buying’ followers on Twitter
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/twitter/8677715/Newt-Gingrich-accused-of-buying-followers-on-Twitter.html
“Part of it is a regional thing. Southern voters won’t vote for mittens and northern voters won’t vote for newt. Rick can win almost anywhere.”
I think that’s the truth. If either wins the nomination, the winner may have to choose a VP candidate from the other region (north or south).
These two have gone at one another so hard that I could not see them on the same ticket. This nomination process has been a bloodbath.
I would love to see Gingrich/Santorum or Santorum/Gingrich. I would not be surprised to see it come down to that at the convention.
Thus the name PSYCHO-FREEP, I guess. All caps, nice touch.
Asked on the CBS News program “Face the Nation” whether he agrees with Republicans who oppose federal abortion payments in cases of rape or incest or to protect the life of a mother, Gingrich said: “No. First of all, I think you should have funding in the case of rape or incest or life of the mother, which is the first step.”
Newt Gingrich on abortion in 1991: “Relax and accept it”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiQo3pRmr-4
If you cannot get RIGHT TO LIFE correct, are you a conservative, or do you change the subject?
Partial Birth Abortion - A Virtue?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_90o61uPD7g
Santorum has takes the exact OPPOSITE stance....
SANTORUM: “You know, the US Supreme Court on a recent case said that a man who committed rape could not be killed, could not be subject to the death penalty, yet the child conceived as a result of that rape could be. That to me sounds like a country that doesn’t have its morals correct. That child did nothing wrong. That child is an innocent victim. To be victimized twice would be a horrible thing. It is an innocent human life. It is genetically human from the moment of conception. And it is a human life. And we in America should be big enough to try to surround ourselves and help women in those terrible situations who’ve been traumatized already. To put them through another trauma of an abortion I think is too much to ask. And so I would absolutely stand and say that one violence is enough.”
Source: Iowa Straw Poll 2011 GOP debate in Ames Iowa , Aug 11, 2011
Asked on the CBS News program “Face the Nation” whether he agrees with Republicans who oppose federal abortion payments in cases of rape or incest or to protect the life of a mother, Gingrich said: “No. First of all, I think you should have funding in the case of rape or incest or life of the mother, which is the first step.”
Newt Gingrich on abortion in 1991: “Relax and accept it”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiQo3pRmr-4
If you cannot get RIGHT TO LIFE correct, are you a conservative, or do you change the subject?
Partial Birth Abortion - A Virtue?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_90o61uPD7g
Santorum has takes the exact OPPOSITE stance....
SANTORUM: “You know, the US Supreme Court on a recent case said that a man who committed rape could not be killed, could not be subject to the death penalty, yet the child conceived as a result of that rape could be. That to me sounds like a country that doesn’t have its morals correct. That child did nothing wrong. That child is an innocent victim. To be victimized twice would be a horrible thing. It is an innocent human life. It is genetically human from the moment of conception. And it is a human life. And we in America should be big enough to try to surround ourselves and help women in those terrible situations who’ve been traumatized already. To put them through another trauma of an abortion I think is too much to ask. And so I would absolutely stand and say that one violence is enough.”
Source: Iowa Straw Poll 2011 GOP debate in Ames Iowa , Aug 11, 2011
I with ya, brother!
Has Jim Robinson addressed your point yet?
And this?
1. Beat Willard with Rick OR Newt
2. Beat Obama
3. Then party like it’s 2099!!!
To be more specific, I'd add that the Philadelphia metro area is less Republican than it used to be, but the Pittsburgh metro area, where Santorum is most associated with, is no longer the Democratic political Hell-hole that it used to be. Obama fared worse there than in any other northern metro area except for Cincinnati and possibly Indianapolis if you don't count Lawrence County as part of the Pittsburgh metro area.
I'd like to point out Pittsburgh's shift to the right because the rust belt is key in this election, and you don't get much more "rust belt" than Pittsburgh. The rust belt is eminently winnable with Santorum, since he fits in there unlike a Gordan Gekko Mitt Romney type.
States like Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are relatively more conservative in social (AUL ranked Michigan as the most pro-life state and Pennsylvania third most), national security, and gun issues and weaker on fiscal issues. Again, just like Santorum.
Mitt Romney may appeal more to East Coast moderate Republicans. Who cares, though? Those states will still go D.
Gingrich may appeal the most to Southern Republicans. Who cares, though? Those states will be Republican no matter who we nominate.
Santorum appeals to Midwest and Rust Belt voters, and those are the ones that matter most since they are in the swing states which will decide the election.
Keep supporting the liar - he supports mitt and mitt is obama. Conservatives live with honor not deception.
The USA must do everything it can to reverse the Democratic Party of America's satanic culture of death policies and atheistic socialist policies they have aggressively been implementing and exporting throughout the whole world. We must do this to alleviate the chastisement coming for our nation.
Without much prayer and leadership, by persons committed to being 100% ProLife, America is at the top of God's priority list for punishment.
“We must view EVERY attack on Santorum or Gingrich as an attack from Romney. We are past the point where we can give the benefit of the doubt to those in the media who want to raise fine points of conservative purity.”
you are right. I’ve decided not to attack Newt anymore. Just be pro Santorum.
“RS is a wimp who is wet behind the ears who hasn’t been vetted and given a pass in the debates - they let him rant on and said nothing. “
Santorum is the only one who held state wide office and was re-elected. Now go back to Romney for more talking points against Rick.
You’d best be cautious about who you’re calling liar, while beating your chest regarding how great your candidate is...
Gun Owners of America: Newt Ain’t Great on 2nd Amendment Rights, Broke His Promise to America
“In 1996, Newt Gingrich turned his back on guns and voted for the anti-gun Brady Campaign’s Lautenberg Gun Ban, which strips the Second Amendment rights of citizens involved in misdemeanor domestic violence charges or temporary protection orders –- in some cases for actions as minor as spanking a child or grabbing a spouse’s wrist.”
The Inconvenient Truth About Newt
http://www.nationalgunrights.org/the-inconvenient-truth-about-newt
I am with you. I will support either Newt or Santorum, whomever can beat Romney.
I believe that either one of them is capable of beating Obama under the right circumstances. Romnuts; not so much.
Thank you for pointing that out. He has more experience than our current "organizer", not to mention core values. Still, as much as I would like to see Newt devastate obambi in debates, Santorum just doesn't have it. What he does have in this American Idol culture is the looks and smile. As sad as that may be, it's a huge factor to independents.
Bottom line: I prefer Newt for his wisdom and HUGE accomplishments in 1994, but will settle for Santorum's lackadaisical style before Mitten's liberalism.
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