NYT/CBS poll shows conservatives consolidating behind Santorum

Hotair ^ | 02/14/2012 | Ed Morrissey

[SeekAndFind]

Consider this a corroboration of Gallup and Pew, both of which have recorded a surge for Rick Santorum that makes him the national frontrunner — if not in each state. The CBS/New York Times poll shows Santorum gaining 14 points in a single month, eclipsing Mitt Romney by three points (still within the MOE), whose support stayed virtually unchanged from January. Almost all of the gain comes at the expense of Newt Gingrich, who dropped to fourth place behind Ron Paul among Republican primary voters:

Rick Santorum has pulled slightly ahead of Mitt Romney in Republican primary voters’ preference for the presidential nomination, a national CBS News/New York Times Poll shows.

Ron Paul is now in third, followed by former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich.

Among self-described conservative voters, the shift has been fairly dramatic. A month ago in this poll series, conservatives were equally split between Romney, Gingrich, and Santorum at 25/25/24 respectively. Now, however, Santorum’s support in this demo has risen to 38%, while Romney has remained steady at 24% and Gingrich dropped by about half to 12%. The same thing has happened to Tea Party support and evangelicals. The dynamic seems to be a movement away from Gingrich and a consolidation among conservative voters behind Santorum as the alternative to Romney, at least for now.

There are a few things to note about this poll, however. This is a poll of registered voters, not likely voters, which is not as predictive a model and is a curious sampling choice in the middle of the actual primary voting. These results come from a larger survey, most of whose results will be announced later. The overall sample was 1,064 registered voters, but only 331 of those planned to vote in a Republican primary. At least a few of those will be independents rather than Republicans, so the partisan split of the overall survey is likely to be highly skewed to Democrats. That doesn’t matter for these results, but a sample of 331 registered voters for a national poll is on the small side. Keep that in mind.

Now that Santorum has become a legitimate force in the race, he’s getting some attention from the usual suspects. Member of Occupy Tacoma tried to crash a Santorum event, and Politico reports that Santorum responded by calling them agents of “true intolerance”:

Filling the front row at the Washington State History Museum where Santorum spoke, a group of Occupy protesters disrupted the event, forcing Santorum to engage them. Occupy Tacoma, the local branch of the Occupy Wall Street movement, is camped out right next to the museum, and advertised Santorum’s visit on its web site.

“I think it’s really important for you to understand what this radical element represents, because what they represent is true intolerance,” Santorum said, after two protesters were taken to the ground and placed in handcuffs by police.

The protesters, Santorum suggested, “instead of standing here unemployed, yelling at somebody” should instead “go out and get a job.”

Santorum’s supporters roared their approval, chanting “get a job” back at the Occupiers.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then …

[montag813]

He’s the weakest of the 3, and Obama will decimate him in a debate, and we will lose again.

If he is such a "weak" debater, then how come he decimated Mittens over RomneyCare in the last debate while Newt stood there like a potted plant? Rick is a good debater. Newt may be better overall, but comes across as an a**hole to most people, especially women, and that's what matters. Americans are so stupid and ill-informed that it is now a popularity contest, and Santorum is very likeable and has a nice wife. Women HATE Newt and his wife will be cast as a creepy home-wrecker.

[madmaximus]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/02/08/rick_santorum_in_2008_romney_is_a_true_conservative.html

[throwback]

I agree. I watched that interview and thought here it comes, the trap on the social issues. Will he trick him into saying something that can be clipped into a sound bite and used against him. Will he get Santorum to sound snarky and combative. It didn’t happen, and they cut away with Gregory joking with him about his sweater vests. So far Santorum strikes the line just right. Unlike McCain he doesn’t get people to like him by agreeing with their ideas, but he doesn’t scream his ideas in their face and call them names either. He tries to argue people to his side, and he does it better than anybody I’ve seen in a while. Persuasion is the only thing that will win this election.

[alstewartfan]

Frankly, Rick is so versed on the issues and the Punk’s record, I wouldn’t be surprised if there were NO debates this fall. Obama is a coward, and there is no way that he will give Rick three “commercials” which would help Rick focus Americans’ attention on this Marxist administration. Bob

[KeyLargo]

Newsmax
Romney, Santorum In Dead Heat for the GOP Nomination
Monday, February 13, 2012 05:28 PM

By: Newsmax Wires

Republican presidential contender Rick Santorum has vaulted into a front-runner’s position with Mitt Romney in two national polls that show the race for the GOP nomination becoming a two-man statistical tie.

Romney and Santorum are tied for the lead among Republican voters 32 to 30 percent, respectively in a Gallup Poll. And the Pew Research Center has the leaders flipped, with Santorum leading Romney 30 percent to 28 percent.

[Marathoner]

Newt may be better overall, but comes across as an a**hole to most people, especially women, and that's what matters. Americans are so stupid and ill-informed that it is now a popularity contest, and Santorum is very likeable and has a nice wife. Women HATE Newt and his wife will be cast as a creepy home-wrecker.

Because of the 19th amendment, I have to agree with you (and I like Newt FWIW).

[TomGuy]

He’s the weakest of the 3, and Obama will decimate him in a debate, and we will lose again.

The Mighty Debate Gingrich didn't hold up very well in either of the Florida debates.

So, it would seem that none of the current candidates on the GOP side has a chance against Obama, according to your estimation.

In my estimation, Santorum has improved greatly in the last few debates. Early on, he came across as whiny and defensive and angry. In the last few debates, he has come across as confident and steadfast.

I never thought he had a chance, in the early spring. But I never thought Gingrich would float along at 10% and then shot up. Out of the remaining 4 [none of which would have been my choice in the early spring], Santorum is preferable to Gingrich who is preferable to Romney who is preferable to Paul. Paul has some good domestic ideas, but his foreign policy positions are unrealistic late 1800s.

[Cheerio]

Americans are so stupid and ill-informed that it is now a popularity contest,

It has become nothing more than an American Idol contest run once every four years. Isn't the how the "most unvetted" President ever won in 2008, without even having to prove he has TWO American citizen parents?

Debate whether British dad's baby meets constitutional requirement for president

[Leep]

A “severe” conservative (and rambunctious patriot?) would take one for the team(?) and drop out.
Go Gingrich! Go Santorum! Go US of A!

[Notary Sojac]

I wanted to vote for Newt all along, and I still do.

But he shot himself in the foot when he decided to attack Romney from the left, and he's never recovered.

If Newt is in the running when my primary comes round, I'll certainly vote for him. If not, I can vote for Santorum in the primary without holding my nose.

Romney vs Santorum is a much easier call for me than was 2008 - Romney vs McQueeg vs Huckabee.

[IamConservative]

With Santorum in the White House, conservatives bigger issues are a Speaker Boehner and a Majority Leader McConnell. They’ve been in Washington so long, they probably couldn’t drive themselves back to their own hometown.

[chimera]

As Rush has (accurately) said, mid-term elections are ALWAYS a referendum on the incumbent. It really doesn’t matter who the opponent is. So if the country is as angry at Obama as it was a year ago, Rick should have no trouble winning.

We have to be careful for what we wish for on this one. The polls I've seen show Obumwad with a 70+% personal approval rating, and just over 50% job approval. He does less well on the economic issues but what I find crazy is that as a party the 'Rats come our ahead of the 'Pubs in polls where the question is "trust to manage the economy". That is pretty remarkable and a strong indictment of the lack of intelligence of the average voter that a so-called President and party that has caused so much harm to the country would pull those kind of ratings. And he hasn't really started campaigning yet, at least not in his typical style. He'll be sitting on a huge mountain of illegally-raised cash for the campaign that he really hasn't tapped yet. This is going to be a tough battle, more so than most people on FR seem to think. Whoever the nominee is on our side, they're going to have to make a strong case for themselves, not just count on an anti-Obama landslide, because right now it doesn't look like that is shaping up.

And yes, I saw the one Gallup poll of the so-called swing states that showed Obama losing most of them to a "generic Republican". But generic Republican isn't running. As soon as you put a name in for generic Republican, the numbers change, and not for the better. I know in my state, one of the so-called swing states, Obama loses to generic Republican, but beats any other non-generic Republican.

[RetiredArmy]

If Romnie is it, I’m staying home. Either Rick or I stay home. I will not vote for Romnie, Newbie or Paul the idiot.

[montag813]

It has become nothing more than an American Idol contest run once every four years. Isn't the how the "most unvetted" President ever won in 2008, without even having to prove he has TWO American citizen parents?

forget 2008. What about his five ILLEGAL non-recess appointments just last month??? We've already forgotten them as a nation. What about his virtual amnesty for nearly 2 million illegal aliens? Obama continually violates the law, and gets away with it, with the stupid sheeple totally unaware of it.

[LibsRJerks]

I think a lot of well meaning conservative pro-life women are smitten with Rick due to his looks and “good guy” image. I think in some ways, they’re thinking subconsciously with their nether regions and I think that’s very shallow.

Newt has the better ideas and a far better understanding of history. Newt would govern conservatively but without trying to lecture or coming off as holier-than-thou. I really prefer this type of president leading the ENTIRE country to Rick.

Santorum will be mocked ad nauseam. He does seem to have a bit of teflon when it comes to this, because he really does stick to his principles. Only time will tell how he handles the media.

[Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!]

Big deal. A lot of people didn’t know about RomneyCare,were green around the ears in nat politics, or came from a democratic state and were therefore more open and moderate.Which BTW attracts independent votes (SEE REAGAN)

http://bostonherald.com/news/us_politics/view/20100414mitt_romney-sarah_palin_in_2012_you_betcha

GO SANTORUM!

[IWONDR]

“He’s the weakest of the 3, and Obama will decimate him in a debate, and we will lose again”

amen! wish others would see that Gingrich is our strongest candidate.

[AlwaysFrosty]

I think you are exactly right at this point in Rick’s progression. His team HAS to know that the SOCIAL issues will be THE issues as he moves closer to potentially upsetting mittens. First mittens will nail him on it, and then, if nominated, President Obama’s team will make Social issues THE issues.
He needs to get EXCELLENT on his answers to Social Issues and NOT be surprised, or caught off guard, by them. The Media will not care what he has to say about the economy...even though we all know it “is the economy stupid”...they will say it’s the social issues stupid, and if Rick is not ready a good percentage of independents will believe it, get scared and vote for the O all over again.
Get schooled Rick! Study! Be ready! The next debate we will see if he has studied, if he has prepared, because look out they are going to try to do their best to nail him and make him look like a far right wing social conservative wacko.

[babygene]

“He’s the weakest of the 3”

He’s not weaker than mittens... Mitt has zero chance because he won’t be able to get the base behind him. Perhaps he’s weaker than Newt or Paul.

[MrEdd]

I did not. I voted for Alan Keyes.

I am satisfied I did the right thing.