Posted on 01/31/2012 7:39:19 AM PST by no dems
Read a poll here on FR last night, Posted by another FReeper, and had a hard time sleeping. I woke up this morning with a couple of questions:
1. When 34% of the Tea Partiers polled are going for Romney, Paul or no one in FL today, what the hell is going on?
2. When many Evangelicals are voting for a Marxist Mormon today in FL, what the hell is going on?
I'm to the point that I've decided that most voters in America are stupid and this nation deserves what it will get with four more years of Barack Hussein Obama in the White House. So, let the good times roll, mama. To hell with all of them.
I never got that!
Btw, women voted for JFK for the same reason.
Yeah! LOL
But PPP is the only poll I’ve found so far that EVER said Newt would get more of Santorum’s support than Romney. Every other poll that has asked that question has found Santorum’s support splits between the candidates.
Yes, you can ignore all the polls — I said we should. But there is no historical or tangible evidence that a candidate getting double-digit support can deliver a majority of that support to a particular other candidate simply by endorsing that other candidate.
There is a reason the Santorum support has remained firm — a reason they haven’t “understood” what everybody here keeps saying is so obvious, that Gingrich needs their vote to stop ROmney.
What you are claiming, and it’s fine but you have no evidence for it, is that those same voters who refuse to do the right thing, who can’t understand the importance of stopping Romney, who simply are too stupid to drop Santorum and vote for Newt, will all in lockstep do exactly that, if only Santorum told them to.
This even though Santorum has been reasonably respectful of Newt, and not given his supporters a lot of reason to hate Newt.
The simple fact, as can be seen by Santorum supporters here at FR, is that many of them are Santorum supporters NOW because as much as they oppose Romney, they simply cannot bring themselves to vote for Newt. So rather than staying home, they are pushing the candidate they believe is most conservative.
BTW, Newt would not be helped if the Santorum voters stayed home either.
Part of the problem with a lot of analysis here is that some people (not all, I’ve seen some here acknowledge this problem) don’t realize that the republican electorate at large shares little of the feelings the FR subgroup has for Mitt Romney. We see the attacks day by day, with no response. We are reminded continuously how bad Romney would be for the country, and nobody ever says one good thing about Romney here. The opinion of ROmney is unchallenged at any point, and so many here seem to believe that it is shared by the population as a whole.
But it turns out it is not. For most of the electorate, even those who don’t really like Romney, they don’t see him like FR does. So reasonable people do what Freepers see as the unconscionable, the inexplicable, the unforgivable — they endorse Mitt Romney, or at least defend him against what they see as unfair attacks.
If you try to wrap yourself around this question — why isn’t Romney universally vilified by those who were thought of as conservative — you will understand what is happening in Florida, I believe.
I’ve always said that the key to stopping Romney was to find some acceptable conservative, find them early, and suck it up and support him no matter what. I said we should jump on the first person “conservative enough” who showed they could get good polling numbers, and who could raise enough money to compete, and who had at least the grudging acceptance of the general republican population.
But we did not do that. Instead, conservatives broke into 4-5 different groups, and took turns destroying all the others. And we ended up with Newt, and instead of having a universally tolerated conservative, we have to spend our time defending the conservative credentials of our supposed conservative leader. That was a recipe for bad results.
I hoped (and still hope) that either conservatives can get over it and support Newt, or that conservatives come to a different conclusion and support Santorum, or by some miracle we get a brokered convention and a real conservative can rise to the top of that morass.
But when your selling point for a candidate is to attack the other candidate for not dropping out and “handing over” his voters, I can’t hold out much hope.
Yes, but she was still on the ballot, and I was pleased to have that option!
How is that? No one here is going to vote for him, besides, what have I said that everyone here doesn’t already know?
Throwing away your vote is not a badge of honor.
Hey, I just thought that since you brought it up, you would know.
FightingJag I think your opinion is spot on. Republicans are searching for the anyone but Obama candidate. That is why the polls are fluctuating wildly.
You are right this time. Gingrich ended up beating Santorum in NH, by about 100 votes, but he did beat him.
And of course he won in South Carolina, after Sarah Palin told all conservatives just to vote for Gingrich to keep the contest going, and apparently they did (BTW, you can claim that really her words meant nothing, and Gingrich votes were all his supporters if you like).
And in Florida, Santorum stopped competing 4 days ago, so that state was left up for grabs, but Gingrich doesn’t seem to be able to repeat what happened in South Carolina. Even Sarah Palin telling all conservatives to just vote Gingrich again to keep the contest going doesn’t look like it was enough, although until the polls close, we can hold out hope.
I’ve explained in another post how hypothetically you’d have to drop a better-performing candidate in order to win the race. Another analogy would be a football team with two quarterbacks. One is clearly “better”, getting more completions, fumbling less, calling the plays better. But you know they are only adequate, and will never truly be great, and while they can keep you respectable, you can’t win a majority of games with them.
The other guy hasn’t done as well. But you might switch to him, because he has the potential to become something greater when given the spotlight. Sometimes that turns out to be a disaster, but sometimes that QB shines when given the opportunity, and becomes the frnachise player for the team. But you’d never have picked him based on the statistics.
We have no idea whether Santorum could end up getting 51% of the vote. We only know that while Gingrich is around, he’s the flashier guy so he gets more of the not-Romney vote.
“Face it, are people really that passionate about Newt?
As much as if Palin was running or someone with her beliefs?”
From an original PalinBot that I was...to:
Much more respect for Newt as he put it on the line because he understood how important this election was...knowing he’d be trashed personally.
Sarah? She wrote a letter...she didnt run and she is clinging to her multi millin dollar Fox contract versus Endorsing Newt...and she knows exactly what this election means.
I still like Palin, but I respect Newt Gingrich way more than Palin now.
Thanks, your originality and lighthearted candidness is refreshing.
“What is going on, is that apparently, not that many people want Newt to win. Pretty simple really, they don’t like him”
Uh-Oh. You’re in trrroooouble. You must love him. Your head is on the chopping block.
Seminole County -> One vote in for Dr. Paul. Actually two once wifey votes. Wasted I am sure but screw the establishment.
CharlesWayneCT wrote:
“Imagine ...”
You spoke of logic before. Now it is “imagine.” I rest my case.
Santorum, whom I like, is not going anywhere. If he would make common cause with Gingrich - positive, conservative, common cause! - this would be a different race, and both he and Gingrich would be in a far different place months from now ... and so would the GOP be.
I have a theory that the reason Romney supports gay marriage is becuse he knows that it is the first step in re-establishing polygamy. Afterall, once you re-define marriage as something other than between one man nd one woman, it’s kind of hard to make a rational defense against one man and 3 or 4 wives.
Just another day in the life of a trolling idiot. Eventually, the choppers arms get tired, my neck gets a rest, and we start all over.
I consider it my civic duty to give some people a target/ It’s cathartic for them to say stuff and get responses. Beats just saying Obama is a pos, and we hate that RINO or this RINO or that guy’s not a conservative. Those people never respond. This keeps it personal and helps with the bonding of fellow freepers.
Romney is not pro abortion. He has made that clear. He even vetoed embryonic stem cell while governor of Mass. Newt has supported embryonic stem cell. Newt may say he has changed his mind, like he has on required healthcare mandates. But that is no different from what Romney has done.
If newt is having trouble with romneys attacks, how will he fare against Obama in the fall. Obama will be 100 times more negative than romeny cod ever be. Newt will be “Cained and Thomased” in the fall. There will numerous women coming out claiming he harassed them or had affairs with them. And it won’t matter if they are true or not. Because the public knows newt has done stuff like that. So that is why character matters, and it is not just a personal issue.
I’d love to see newt be president. But every indication and poll is that he will get beaten by Obama double digits.
Any data from Brevard county?
His record as Governor says something quite different. $50 abortions and the taxpayers pick up the rest of the tab.
Liberal Mitt's Greatest Hits: What Romney Doesn't Want You to See
I read the rest of your post and it is complete and utter BS.
The left is going to hit ANY candidate with lies and force. It's what they do.
Gingrich is the Reaganite conservative. Romney is not and never will be.
Look, I was an independent during the time of Reagan-Bush. I’m not trying to take us back to Reagan-Bush. Mitt Obamney.
Sorry if I didn’t use a technical term for you. Next time, I’ll say “Hypothesize”.
Your argument would be more persuasive if you had one. Some facts would help as well. Your entire post is wishes, or if you like, your own furtive imagination.
On what logical basis do you assert that Santorum voters would switch to Gingrich?
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