Posted on 01/29/2012 8:05:02 PM PST by TitansAFC
A new InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Sunday night of likely Republican voters in the state of Florida shows a significant surge for Newt Gingrich.
The poll has Mitt Romney leading with 36 percent of voters, followed by Gingrich at 31 percent.
The Sunday results of 646 likely GOP voters are as follows: Romney 36 percent Gingrich 31 percent Santorum 12 percent Paul 12 percent Other/Undecided 9 percent "The race will be tighter than expected," Matt Towery, chief pollster of InsiderAdvantage told Newsmax.
Towery noted that his poll showed a surge for Romney on Wednesday, with him leading Gingrich by 8 points. The InsiderAdvantage poll was among the first to show Romney's resurgence after his dismal showing in the S. Carolina primary.
The InsiderAdvantage poll was also the first to show Gingrich's rise in S. Carolina and accurately forecast his win there.
"The trend is favoring Gingrich," Towery said, noting that while Romney's lead was still outside the margin of error of 3.8 percent, "It's not by much.".........
(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...
Romney held a 12-point lead among those who had already voted, and an 11-point lead among those who had not yet voted.
Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online surveys, but this poll of 903 likely voters has a credibility interval of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Saturday’s Reuters/Ipsos survey is the second of four daily tracking polls being released ahead of Tuesday’s Florida primary.
COmments by ez...The Reutera poll includes data from Thurs and Fri. The latest PPP, Sat. Sun and this Insider Advantage poll, Sun only. Looks like there is a backlash forming against “Black Thursday.”
How many millions of Romneys own money did he spend and he couldn't even beat McCain.
The fact is the insiders decided it was McCains turn just like they had decided it was Doles turn. Now it is Romney's turn. I think WE THE PEOPLE have finally caught onto their tactics and ARE NOT going to let it happen again.
I chuckle when some people on this site say Romney will get the nomination because people vote for the handsome one. Well I don't think McCain was handsomer then Romney. And I sure don't think Ronmey is handsomer than Newt.
GO NEWT!
The one exception is Greta who has been being balanced. I look forward to watching her each night.
Her bus tour with Newt was the Newtron Bomb.
Delusional. He campaigned in IA for a year.
I would add that RCP had Mitt up by +8 and +10.3 three and four days before SC. And as you pointed out Newt won by +12.6.
So to conclude about RCP predictive capabilities, they were 23 points off four days before SC.
Here is your answer on polls.
SurveyUSA - Romney +15 (data through 1/29 ;today)
Rasmussen = Romney +16 (data through 1/28 ; saturday)
PPP - Romney +8 (data through 1/28 ; saturday)
NBC/Marist - Romney +15 (data through 1/26 ; thursday)
Mason Dixon = Romney +11 (data through 1/26 ; thursday)
(several others through 1/26, showing Romney +11 or so)
I am not sure what surge IA is seeing. Their poll posted on 1/26 (with data through 1/25), showed it Romney +8, about the same as what the OP showed. Big difference between the IA poll and Survey USA which both did surveys today.
I usually try to look at the trends and also what the candidates are saying and doing. The fact the Newt said he was staying in this to the end, regardless of what happens in Florida is kind of telling to me.
But hey, this has been a volatile race, with wild swings in short amounts of times. I wouldn’t bet on anything at this point. Personally, I don’t think Romney will win by double digits as most of the recent polls are showing. But unfortunately, I do believe Romney will win in the 5-7 point range.
How many are undecided?
Gentlemen, there is more work to be done here.
Newt’s a dog.
But he’s our dog!
Go Newt!
I just sent another email to everyone my address book (those living in FL and elsewhere). I have asked them contact anyone they know in FL and encourage them to vote for Newt.
Equally important, I have implored them to also ask anyone they contact in FL to please contact everyone they know and encourage them to vote for Newt.
We need to do all we can to stop Mitt.
How many women really go out and vote?
BINGO
Gentlemen, there is more work to be done here.
Maybe if we persuade George Clooney and Brad Pitt to switch to Republican and endorse Newt. :-)
Somebody explain how Santorum can drop out after early voting has begun
Turn out will be the key. Sometimes when one is predicted to win by large margin some of the voters stay home. Since this is mostly just negatives about newt and not why one should vote for Romney there is a good chance many will just sit at home without someone to vote FOR. Especially if they think newt can’t win—so what’s the harm in staying at home?
But if Newt can get the tea party on their feet he could steal this.
Of course they are. Women are just as likely to think with their ovaries as men are with their.. uh 'heads'. Makes total sense. To be fair however, Newt's alleged infidelity may also be a contributing factor.
I have listened to Rush forever and love him. But it will be a cold day in Hell before he puts his neck on the line and endorse Newt. It will not happen.
I turned Rush off a few times last week. I expect him to be a severe disappointment on Monday.
I posted the info to your question below on polls. You can go to real clear politics and get a listing of every public poll that has been released.
As far as me? I was hoping for Sarah, but when she bowed out, I supported Perry. Unfortunately, I am in a late voting primary state, so it may be decided before I get my chance. But in the end, I will vote for the republican nominee over Obama, regardless.
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