Here is your answer on polls.
SurveyUSA - Romney +15 (data through 1/29 ;today)
Rasmussen = Romney +16 (data through 1/28 ; saturday)
PPP - Romney +8 (data through 1/28 ; saturday)
NBC/Marist - Romney +15 (data through 1/26 ; thursday)
Mason Dixon = Romney +11 (data through 1/26 ; thursday)
(several others through 1/26, showing Romney +11 or so)
I am not sure what surge IA is seeing. Their poll posted on 1/26 (with data through 1/25), showed it Romney +8, about the same as what the OP showed. Big difference between the IA poll and Survey USA which both did surveys today.
I usually try to look at the trends and also what the candidates are saying and doing. The fact the Newt said he was staying in this to the end, regardless of what happens in Florida is kind of telling to me.
But hey, this has been a volatile race, with wild swings in short amounts of times. I wouldn’t bet on anything at this point. Personally, I don’t think Romney will win by double digits as most of the recent polls are showing. But unfortunately, I do believe Romney will win in the 5-7 point range.
Turn out will be the key. Sometimes when one is predicted to win by large margin some of the voters stay home. Since this is mostly just negatives about newt and not why one should vote for Romney there is a good chance many will just sit at home without someone to vote FOR. Especially if they think newt can’t win—so what’s the harm in staying at home?
But if Newt can get the tea party on their feet he could steal this.
Yes, big differences in some of the recent polls, but in general, polls which include thurs and fri data are more favorable to Romney than polls including only sat and sun. That shows some movement around thurs or fri. Possible explanations are backlash against black thursday, cain endorsement, palins words, tea party endorsements. Also the Thursday night debate, while not great for Newt, I thought, showed Romney to appear vindictive. We’ll know more tomorrow, thanks for the info.
I am not sure what surge IA is seeing. Their poll posted on 1/26 (with data through 1/25), showed it Romney +8, about the same as what the OP showed. Big difference between the IA poll and Survey USA which both did surveys today.
_________________________
I too have concerns with the IA targeting, because so very few (over 600) were polled, in a state the size and population of Florida with its diverse demographics and regions.