Posted on 01/29/2012 8:01:41 AM PST by TBBT
Five weeks ago, this might have been a game changer. Is this a case of too little, too late?
Atlanta businessman and former presidential candidate Herman Cain endorsed Newt Gingrich Saturday night at a West Palm Beach Country Republican gathering after two months of wavering on whether he would offer his support to a fellow candidate.
The endorsement comes just three days before the crucial Florida primary, by far the largest state to vote so far in the GOP sweepstakes, and could help Gingrich energize tea party support. Gingrich campaign has flagged since his upstart, double-digit victory over front-runner Mitt Romney in the South Carolina primary a week ago.
“I had it in my heart and mind a long time ago” to endorse Gingrich, Cain said in a surprise appearance at the dinner. “Speaker Gingrich is a patriot, Speaker Gingrich is not afraid of bold ideas, and I also know that Speaker Gingrich is … going through this sausage grinder. I know what this sausage grinder is all about. I know that he’s going through this sausage grinder because he cares about the future of the United States of America.”
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
Although I believe Newt is down a little in FL, I am going to have to call “Bullsh*t” on this poll showing Romney almost DOUBLING him.
If anyone believes Romney is going to beat Gingrich in FL by almost 2:1, I have some Oceanfront property in Colorado to sell you.
You know, why is it we regularly give the Left reasons to laugh their a$$es off at us? A couple of B.S. polls come out, and FReepers are throwing Newt under the bus, and wringing our hands. I’m embarrassed reading these spineless post by fellow FReepers.
We are our own worst enemy. How Freaking sad!
I won’t vote for Mittens, but I won’t stay home. I’ll be in a contested House district and I’ll do what I can to keep Nancy Pelosi out of the Speaker’s chair.
So we lose Fla? Romney needs 1,245 delegates to get the nomination. Newt will win Georgia, Texas, Alabama, TN, KY and Minn (unless Bachmann endorses Newt) I do think Santorum will get out soon. He doesnt have the money. Nev. is a wild card. Romney is not going to breeze his way through this..we are making noise and being heard. The media fears us, the establishment fears us. We are the revolution! there may very well be a brokered convention. I say FIGHT! DAMN THE TORPEDOES AND FULL SPEED AHEAD! we have Cain, Perry, Palin, Bob McFarland, Jim Robinson, JC Watts (Oklahoma) Thomas Sowell, Art Laffer and maybe..just maybe..Rush will swing our way. LET’S ROLL!
He has already endorsed Romney.
Hush your mouth! That kind of talk won't allow the doomsayers to get any leverage.
Okay, for the umpteenth time already TBBT, will you PLEASE stop trying to make Santroum the scapegoat in all of this?
Also, with this poll showing Romney at 44, how does 28+15(Highest polling number for Santorum) equal greater than 44?
I posted this last night on the voting demographics of FL. Newt is losing both the Seniors and Hispanic vote by nearly 2-1 margins. Those two groups are NOT the base of Santorum’s support, which is mostly in North FL.
When Newt was ahead by 8 in FL, Santorum had about the same level of support, and there wasn’t any complaining going on. But now that Newt is down 8 again, even though Santorum hasn’t really moved in the polls, you want to put the blame on him? Nice try, but it ain’t gonna fly.
“From another thread on FL Voting Demographics:
Do you actually live in FL?
Judging from all the comments referring to Santorum as a POS, I think not.
So let’s try this again to explain the voting Demographics for the state of Florida:
There’s two major voting blocks that compose a majority of FL GOP Voters:
1. Senior Citizens (I.E. over 65)
2. Hispanic Voters
There’s Tea Party and Grassroots folks merged in there between the two, but they may up a smaller, yet distinct group themselves, which is the group Gingrich currently carries pretty handedly over Romney.
Now, when Mitt and Newt have taken their turn being on top, it’s because each of the two groups tend to vote in a sort of majority union. For example, the Hispanic vote split will be about 2-1 in favor of the perceived winner. Likewise, the Senior vote will be close to that or 60-40 in favor of the winner.
These two groups have shifted back and forth. Newt had them on Monday before they moved back to Mitt. Because of the unison thing, you’ve seen an 8 point lead for Romney turn into an 8 point lead for Newt and vice-versa. The key to winning FL is winning these groups.
Santorum’s share of the pie is small. About 12%. Based on current polling, a split out vote might look like the following:
Romney: 43%
Newt: 35%
Santorum: 12%
Paul: 10%
Were Santorum to drop out, Newt would need 2/3 of Santorum supporters just to pull back to even with Romney. But Romney would probably get the other 1/3, pushing him a point or two higher, meaning Newt still couldn’t get to Mitt on Santorum’s voters alone.
The key to winning FL (like I have said before) is winning the Senior vote and the Hispanic vote. The Evangelical vote, while still distinct in FL, is not large enough to deliver the state.
And here’s the other problem. Even if Santorum dropped out and Newt was able to hold on by the edge of his seat to take the state in a nail-biter by getting enough of Santorum’s voters, it would most likely mean that Romney dominated the Hispanic vote. If that’s the case, the MSM will run with the mantra that Gingrich is weak with Hispanics in anticipation of the NV Caucuses and AZ primary next month. While polls show close races in both states, that will change depending on the FL results and breakdown.
Santorum’s support has not changed in FL in almost 3 weeks. It has remained around the 11-13% range. When Newt was getting over 40%, Santorum was in the 11-13% range, and now that Newt is polling in the low 30’s, you want to put the blame on Santorum even though he is still in the same 11-13% range? This doesn’t make any logical sense.
Newt had an 8 point lead in FL when he was leading Seniors and Hispanics. For now, that isn’t the case. If he turns it around before Tuesday, he will once again swap places with Romney and carry the state by 6-7 points. But regardless of whether Newt wins the state or not, it is not dependent on where Santorum finishes, because whether Newt wins or loses FL, Santorum will still get about 12% and no more.
Things look bleak right now in FL, but I’m not going to let you people try and make Santorum a scapegoat. Like I said in SC, he and Newt have different bases they both appeal to, and as SC showed, Santorum’s 17% in SC did not harm Newt from taking the state by double digits.
Lastly, even though FL is a closed GOP primary, many former Northeastern Republicans live here. Rudy got 15% and Romney got 31% last time, and not taking into account the GOP voters that describe themselves as “liberal” that voted for John McCain last time in his 36% amount, this puts the liberal/moderate faction of the GOP in FL close to 50%. McCain won the FL primary in 2008 because he dominated the Hispanic vote, despite losing the Senior vote to Romney.
This is why between now and Tuesday, the most important groups to pay attention to are Seniors and the Hispanics.
Please people....let’s not loose hope...we have a long way to go!!!! I know this is going to sound stupid, but....I have that feeling in the pit of my stomach that tells me everything is going to be OK. I started to feel it about 2 months ago....I was listening to Newt around that time and all the sudden....I just knew....I knew Newt Gingrich was the right guy.
I felt this same thing the whole time my son was in Iraq, my husband was freaking out with worry...but I had that peace in my gut....he would be OK...and he was. After 2 tours, he came home just fine. I do not think he was any better than any of our fine young men and women that gave their precious lives for us, I am just saying...God gave me a inner peace and he is doing it again in this election. Just pray and trust, and maybe you will feel it too!
And while this may turn out to be true, it’s the only poll that has it this big. Ras has been in the tank for the elite for a LONG time.
“Hush your mouth! That kind of talk won’t allow the doomsayers to get any leverage.”
__________________________________________________
Amen!
I’m beyond sick of these gutless posts! “Oh no, woe is us...a poll has Newt down...we’re doomed!”
And we joke about the DUmmies? Grow some onions people!
Supposedly, up to 40% of voters have done so already by early voting. Who knows what that might mean. Polls now may be meaningless.
And if Trump runs, might as well have a couple other indies as well.. perhaps Palin and Ron Paul. Let`s at least make the impending Obama landslide entertaining.
Oh, you mean like the SC polls?
Spoke with a, probably, typical elderly Floridian yesterday. She’s been using her computer for about 15 years. Has no idea how to get news off of it. Doesn’t know how to switch a radio station. She depends on TV news.
Says “well we were going to vote for Newt, but did you know he had ex wives?. . . Romney has a good family! I hope he doesn’t appoint czars, if he appoints czars, well . . . But did you know Newt was removed from his seat?”
Doesn’t matter that this woman excuses her own son’s and her husband’s extramarital affairs. Doesn’t matter that Newt admits wrongdoing and acts repentant, or that Romney already has czars, because Ann Curry has spoken and the Blitz of ads has done it’s mind control over the masses.
Of course, I argued a good case and she promised to rethink, but that’s not the point. Romney knows what he’s dealing with in Fla. Newt needs to get ahead of him in his thinking. A few good debates and endorsements are just not going to be enough.
Anyway, it’s Sunday.
Let’s pray, pray, pray for our country.
Yes. If Mitt needs the other 50 at the convention, no doubt in my mind they will seat them.
Sat., February 4, 2012
Nevada binding caucus 3 RNC, 12 CD and 13 AL
February 4–11,2012
Maine nonbinding caucus 3 RNC, 6 CD and 15 AL
February 7, 2012
Colorado nonbinding caucus 3 RNC, 21 CD and 12 AL
Minnesota nonbinding caucus 3 RNC, 24 CD and 13 AL
Missouri nonbinding primary 3 RNC, 24 CD and 25 AL
Tue., February 28, 2012
Arizona closed primary 29
Michigan closed primary 30
Sat., March 3, 2012
Washington nonbinding caucus 3 RNC, 30 CD and 10 AL
Tue., March 6, 2012 (Super Tuesday)
Alaska binding caucus 3 RNC, 3 CD and 21 AL
Georgia semi-closed primary 3 RNC, 42 CD and 31 AL
Idaho binding caucus 3 RNC, 6 CD and 23 AL
Massachusetts semi-closed primary 3 RNC, 27 CD and 11 AL
North Dakota binding caucus 3 RNC, 3 CD and 22 AL
Ohio semi-closed primary 3 RNC, 48 CD and 15 AL
Oklahoma closed primary 3 RNC, 15 CD and 25 AL
Tennessee open primary 3 RNC, 27 CD and 28 AL
Vermont open primary 3 RNC, 3 CD and 11 AL
Virginia open primary 3 RNC, 33 CD and 13 AL
It is so obviously just a game to them that it is impossible to take them seriously. A mere four years ago McCain and the establishment backing him were telling us how incompetent Romney was. Now McCain and the rest come out supporting him as the only viable one. Until they can come up with something substantial about him that has changed in four years, other than that he may be better at campaigning, why should we believe anything they say? They think we are stupid I guess.
Does anyone know what happens if a Presidential candidate gets ill or for some reason must drop out AFTER the convention has nominated him? Does the VP candidate just run in his place, or??? I have wondered about this for a long time.
Santorum can claim conservatism - I want to see it in action when it will actually cost ‘him’ something! Rhetoric and holier than thou attitude only goes so far - the proof is in the pudding. Either he’s a patriot or not. Either it’s about our country or Santorum. It’s a ‘put up or shut up’ moment for Santorum. Like our soldiers in battle - it’s about winning against evil/enemies at the risk of their own demise. Totally unselfish and God bless them all! And this will not literally kill Santorum - only his pride.
The very least he can do is STOP attacking Newt if he makes the decision to stay in the race. And STOP aligning him with Mitt!
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