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2012 Iowa Caucus Live Thread
Iowa GOP ^ | 1.3.12 | Free Vulcan

Posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:24 AM PST by Free Vulcan

Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.

Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.

We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.

My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:

Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1

Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa
KEYWORDS: 2012; bigideas; campaign2012; caucus; foxnewsisbiased; foxnewspimpsmitt; frankly; getitdone; gop; gosantorum; ia2012; iowa; iowacaucus; iowaisirrelevant; iowamattersnot; liveiowacaucus; muchadoaboutiowa; muchadoaboutnothing; newt; newtlautenberg; nominee; openprimary; perry; president; ricksantorum; santorum; santorum2012; solutions
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To: gswilder

With Governor Haley already for Mittens, he will pick up Lindsey Graham and DeMint (again) and sweep SC, with Santorum, Gingrich, and Perry dividing the opposition. The Paul vote is just a kind of meaningless add-on. SC people are notorious for voting as they are told by their “leaders.”


621 posted on 01/03/2012 7:00:44 PM PST by Theodore R. (I'll still vote for Santorum if he is on the April 3 ballot.)
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To: Palladin

“Newtie is toast—can’t even make the top three in Iowa...”

Gingrich is right where he needs to be, and has enough fresh money to carry him along for a while.

REMEMBER REAGAN...


622 posted on 01/03/2012 7:00:56 PM PST by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: BillyBoy

Santorum ENDORSED Romney during the last election. You know that Santorum also endorsed Spector whose vote was the 60th vote to give us Obamacare!!! Santorum known as an earmark king and more...not a fiscal conservative. Yes, he is a social conservative but our nation is in dire straits when it comes to monetary crisis...Santorum LOST his own state in a landslide...NO santorum...GOOOOOOOOOOOOO NEWT!!!!
“He defends the practice of earmarks, and I have taken a no-earmark pledge,” Bachmann said. “He also supported Arlen Specter and endorsed him. Arlen Specter supplied the 60th vote that gave us Obamacare and gave us taxpayer-funded abortions. I never would have supported Arlen Specter, who is a pro-abortion candidate. I never would have done that, and so there are real differences between us.”


623 posted on 01/03/2012 7:00:56 PM PST by katiedidit1 ("This is one race of people for whom psychoanalysis is of no use whatsoever." the Irish)
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To: Miss Didi

Santorum needs to go absolutely ballistic on Romney in the next debate, I mean, take off the gloves, particularly with an eye on the big prize, South Carolina.


624 posted on 01/03/2012 7:01:11 PM PST by AmericanInTokyo (If FR slowly morphs from anti-Romney, via rationalizing, into supporting him like McCain, FR is over)
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To: bigbob

Perry blew through his money in Iowa in record time, sad to say.

And 5th and 6th placers ALWAYS drop out.

Where are the 4th quarter numbers? Newt’s over $10 million, I think. I doubt Perry reports anywhere near that in the final quarter.

Bottom lines: Perry is toast, imho. Which is great for Newt & Santorum. Bad for Willard with the conservative vote not being split up as much.

Bachmann = Toast two.


625 posted on 01/03/2012 7:01:14 PM PST by CainConservative ( Newt/Rubio 2012 with Cain, Bolton, Santorum, Perry, Watts, Duncan, & Bachmann in Newt's Cabinet)
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To: publana
Rush sums it up well:

"There is no conservative movement per se that includes conservative media. I've finally come to that conclusion: There is no conservative movement. We are conservative movement people -- the Tea Party are, you and I -- but in conservative media circles they don't consider themselves part of the conservative movement."

626 posted on 01/03/2012 7:01:39 PM PST by MissMagnolia (ObamaCare side effects: headache,delayed treatment, 0 choice,sky-rocketing taxes & premature death)
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To: caww
NEWT COUNTRY !!!

Stay Strong Newt. America Needs YOU! This is your time.

GO SOUTH !!! GO NEWT !!!

Newt is from Carrollton, Georgia. Neighboring State are South Carolina and Florida.

Full Court Press NEWT !!! The South (ie: Red States) have your back.

627 posted on 01/03/2012 7:01:47 PM PST by show
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To: bigbob
"How about Ron Paul in charge of Energy, EPA or Education? Just give him a big axe and chop away!"

Absolutely NOT! Give him Energy, EPA AND Education.

628 posted on 01/03/2012 7:01:55 PM PST by matthew fuller ("If the past sits in judgment on the present, the future will be lost." Winston Churchill)
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To: WilliamHouston

Again, I shall ask: “There always has been, is now and always will be a dominant world military power. Just what county or group would you like to see be that power?”

The is NO defense without a significant offense. There is none in the competative business world. There is none in sports. And, there is none in the protection of the United States.

If this nation is not positioned militarily throughout the world, our ability for a deterant offense (yes, that is defense) the nation is a great risk as are our critical allies and interests. Ron Paul wants to violate the most important objective of the US Constitution.


629 posted on 01/03/2012 7:02:11 PM PST by Proud2BeRight
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To: fatima

Me, too, fatima. All my prayers are for Rick. Maybe if he becomes President, we will at last see an end to legalized abortion in America.

I’ve been waiting and praying for that intention for 40 years!


630 posted on 01/03/2012 7:02:20 PM PST by Palladin (No Newts!)
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To: Miss Didi

Bill Kristol (spit) says that Romney was worried about Newt and Perry and went after them taking them down, but ironically their support went to Santorum. who may turn out to be a tougher opponent because he has less baggage.


631 posted on 01/03/2012 7:02:34 PM PST by ez (When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail. | FR Class of '98 |)
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To: CainConservative

Good point. Sad for their supporters, but it is a thinning of the heard. Bachmann will be quitting to save her congressional seat.


632 posted on 01/03/2012 7:02:54 PM PST by AmericanInTokyo (If FR slowly morphs from anti-Romney, via rationalizing, into supporting him like McCain, FR is over)
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To: varina davis

“Agreed. Perry won’t drop out. Paul’s Iowa vote will be discounted, Romney will squeak out a win in New Hampshire and Perry will win South Carolina.”

I hope that scenario plays out, cause the winner of SC usually wins FL too.


633 posted on 01/03/2012 7:03:08 PM PST by lquist1
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To: gswilder

The SOUTH no like Romney. he he


634 posted on 01/03/2012 7:03:24 PM PST by show
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To: varina davis

I hope Perry and Newt both stay in. Santorum is a late surge and hasn’t been hacked to death like the other front runners. If he takes heavy damage after Iowa, I’d like to think we had options.

Fox is busily pushing the line that more candidates just helps Romney but I don’t buy it. It’s early and we have time to pick the best possible candidate.


635 posted on 01/03/2012 7:03:24 PM PST by Kenny
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To: Oceander
"who will simply sit on the sidelines because they cannot stomache Romney."

I think you will find that conservatives don't act like babies just because their guy does not get the nod. Some FReepers excluded. I'm certainly not happy Newt is not winning, but I will vote against obumber no matter who runs.
636 posted on 01/03/2012 7:03:43 PM PST by JoSixChip (Top 10% of wage earners pay 70% of total income taxes collected. Bottom 50% pay less then 3%, fair?)
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To: AmericanInTokyo

thinning of the hurd


637 posted on 01/03/2012 7:03:50 PM PST by AmericanInTokyo (If FR slowly morphs from anti-Romney, via rationalizing, into supporting him like McCain, FR is over)
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To: david1313

Rubio is not eligible to run - he is not a natural born citizen.


638 posted on 01/03/2012 7:04:31 PM PST by Sioux-san
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To: AmericanInTokyo
thinning of the "herd", Santorum needs some money bombs, BIG TIME.
639 posted on 01/03/2012 7:04:34 PM PST by AmericanInTokyo (If FR slowly morphs from anti-Romney, via rationalizing, into supporting him like McCain, FR is over)
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To: Theodore R.

If Romney wins in SC and FL, it will be because we’ve once again committed Conservicide by backing some national five-percenter who surges in weird Iowa and does just enough to split the vote for the establishment guy to win those states. See: Huckabee, Santorum, et al.

I fully expect we will all commit conservicide and Romney will have this wrapped-up on Super Tuesday.

We really are the stupid party, and the Tea Party is about to get bitch-slapped by the Establishment for the whole world to see, and it will be our own fault for never being happy with any credible Romney alternative.

I hope Ron Paul wins Iowa so that EVERYONE will dismiss the results there once and for all. Fickle, weird Iowa has got to be discarded into the dustbin for good. Enough of Iowa!


640 posted on 01/03/2012 7:04:40 PM PST by TitansAFC (Mitt Romney gets less bang for the buck than John-Freaking-Huntsman.)
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