Posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:24 AM PST by Free Vulcan
Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.
Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.
We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.
My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:
Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1
Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.
Prediction of the results:
1. mittens 25%
2. Ron Paul 23%
3. Rick Santorum 17%
4. All the others (whatever is left)
I eagerly await finding out how far off I am tomorrow morning.
They’d probably make one. Registration closes at 7pm and once the voting is done it’s done. Doubt they could make it to another site in time.
Thanks for your reply! Guessing from your Freeper name that we are probably about the same age. I do not have any children of my own, but I am a great aunt with one great great neice.:)
I give all Iowans great credit for getting out there tonight and caucusing for their favorite candidate.
I do like things about the Republican candidates, but really looking at their records I must say I find Governor Perry at the top of my list. I hope he does well tonight in Iowa, but this is just the beginning of a long race to the nomination of our candidate.
This thread will be active through this evening and I look forward to hearing comments from Iowa freepers.
“The amount of support Ron Paul has makes no sense to me at all.”
His base is.....
1. Democrats that no longer smoke dope.
2. Republicans that have started smoking dope.
Santorum, the earmark king; bridge to nowhere..the man that lost the election in Pa by a landslide..the man that endorsed Santorum. No thanks.
Santorum, the earmark king; bridge to nowhere..the man that lost the election in Pa by a landslide..the man that endorsed Arlen Spector. No thanks.
>>Who are the Crazy Uncle Ron supporters?
3. Disillusioned Obama supporters.
4. The politically naive. (relative newcomers to politics)
You guys don’t have roads where you live? wow.
Who exactly is God's choice for tonight?
Sen. Santorum’s concluding remarks on the eve of the vote to override Clinton’s veto of the partial-birth abortion ban. The vote came up short, and this ghastly procedure sadly remained legal:
(September 17, 1998)
“We somehow see little children, little babies, different than older children. Older children—if you have killed your older children, that is really bad. We have no sympathy for you. But somehow, if you killed a baby just born we try to figure out a way to get around it. We try to figure out a way that that does not quite meet the threshold of murder. If you look at the punishments meted out—substantially lower. They are substantially lower than other murder cases. We just do not value those little babies as much.
“Why? Why? Is it any mystery why? If we start, as we have, down the path of not valuing those little babies because we do not value them in the womb, or four-fifths outside the womb, or just newly outside the womb, who is next? Look around. Who is going to be next? Who is going to be the next group of people who we are not going to value, who does not have the might to force down what they believe is right? I made it. I am here in this body. I am whole. I am healthy. If you have not made it yet, watch it, because it then depends on whether you are on the committee that decides, or you are on the court that decides who lives and who dies. Because there is no line anymore. There is no truth on which we are basing this. There is no `life or nonlife.’ There is might. There is political power and that is what determines who lives and dies, who is valuable and who is not.
“Tomorrow, 34 Senators can exercise their might on who lives and dies. They can decide for a country that a group of people, a group of little helpless babies, do not belong.
“I am hopeful that when tomorrow comes, after much prayer tonight by so many people all over the country, and the world, that three more Members will open their eyes when they wake up in the morning and realize that but for the grace of God, there go I, and that we have to open our hearts more and include the least among us, the little children.
Mr. President, I yield the floor.”
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/F?r105:17:./temp/~r105D77S3b:e7733:
(The link is a temporary Search result and expires after 30 minutes. You can search under 105th Congress, Santorum, with the date listed above to retrieve the entire text.)
Why, anyone who’s been listening to the drive-bys knows that St. Willard has been anointed for this task.
Unethical punks.
A whole lot of Ron Paul supporters are just punk kids who think they're actually conservative, but haven't got a clue as to what that means.
I won't be surprised at all however to find that Paul gets a lot of votes from Dems. The Paul punks and the leftists are soulmates.
I think much of Ron Pauls support will evaporate tonight. Some other Not Romney will win.
I had to shift some numbers and people around in my simulation when Newt tanked. I still watch county by county totals to see how the vote totals line up with what I had, then will release them later this week. Didn’t get a chance to run my full simulation again yesterday because of other obligations:
Predictions:
Santorum: 28,920 - 21.60%
Romney: 28,347 - 21.17%
Paul: 26,107 - 19.50%
Gingrich: 21,517 - 16.07%
Perry: 17,406 - 13.00%
Bachmann: 7,801 - 5.83%
Huntsman: 3,804 - 2.84%
I remember months ago when Perry first announced when Rush said that the “inside the beltway GOP does not like Perry”
When I heard Rush's comments it made me start looking into Governor Perry right then! If the GOP elites don't like Perry it must be because he is NOT a RINO! GO PERRY!
amazing that there are about 200 posts on this thread...and nowhere near vote counting time!
Mrs. Paul’s “support” will never materialize into actual votes. Any polling that has him over 5% is invalid. If the results were based in any sense of reality, his numbers should be automatically be discarded.
Just thinking the same thing. Off topic - watched a show on the Iron Dog Race last night on Nat'l Geo. Todd Palin was in it (finished 3rd I think). He's registered for the 2012 race. The show didn't focus at all on him, just heard his name as they were saying who was ahead of the racers being featured. One brief shot of Sarah waiting for Todd to come in at the finish & then saying something to him when he did come in. Race is in Feb .....
It’s like a Freeper caucus. We’re kicking around the possibilities.
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