NBC/Marist IOWA poll: Romney 23, Paul 21, Santorum 15 (Numbers seem to confirm CNN, Rasmussen)

Hotair ^ | 12/30/2011 | Ed Morrissey

[SeekAndFind]

In the last few days before the Iowa caucus, one would expect the polling to get chaotic and inconsistent, given the nature of caucusing and the interference of the holidays. That’s what makes today’s NBC/Marist poll so intriguing — it’s practically a carbon copy of yesterday’s Rasmussen poll. Both polls have Mitt Romney and Ron Paul at a virtual tie at the top, and Rick Santorum making a big move into third place:

A new NBC-Marist poll confirms that with the caucuses four days away former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is the frontrunner in Iowa (with Texas Rep. Ron Paul close on his heels), while former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum is experiencing a late-in-the-game surge.

Romney and Paul are battling for the top spot, winning the loyalty of 23 percent and 21 percent of likely caucus-goers, respectively. The survey finds Santorum at 15 percent, a jump from 6 percent over the last month. The caucuses are Jan. 3.

At the beginning of the month in this NBC/Marist series, Romney and Paul tied at 19, while Santorum languished at 6% among likely voters. Both sets of numbers included leaners, which only dropped the undecided respondents from 12% to 7%, and boosted Ron Paul more than anyone else (two points to one for both Romney and Santorum). Newt Gingrich has seen his support drop by more than half in the same period, from 28% to 13%, while Rick Perry rose from 10% to 14% to finish just behind Santorum. Michele Bachmann lost a point this month, essentially treading water near the bottom of the pack.

In the second-choice category, Perry finished second to Romney, 21/20, with Santorum in third at 15%. That’s almost double what both Perry and Santorum had at the beginning of the month, but Romney’s second-choice support has grown, too. Most of that came from Herman Cain’s former second-choice support as well as a significant decline for Gingrich, who at 13% still has an edge over Paul’s 9%. That figure seems to indicate that Paul’s support in the caucuses is shallow indeed; he’s gotten all of the support he can muster at this point. Any late breaking decisions by voters will favor Romney, Perry, and Santorum most as voters move away from other candidates.

I think it’s safe to say that NBC/Marist and Rasmussen have a good handle on what the race in Iowa looks like this week. We’ll see what Iowans think by Tuesday. One key Iowan still hasn’t made up his mind, but has begun to say what he can abide, at least — and what he can’t:

Steve King would be warmly welcomed onto any of the campaign buses crisscrossing Iowa in the homestretch before Tuesday’s caucuses, but he spent Thursday at his home in the state’s conservative northwest.

The influential congressman’s position on the sidelines epitomizes the failure of Iowa’s abundant social conservatives to unite behind one candidate who could overtake Mitt Romney, widely distrusted because of his Mormonism and previous support for abortion and gay rights. King expected to settle on a candidate in September or October. He didn’t. …

Erick Erickson, the popular conservative blogger for RedState, mocked Santorum’s rise to third place in the poll, noting the former Pennsylvania senator’s threadbare campaign outside of Iowa. That’s was Mike Huckabee’s problem after Iowa’s social conservatives put him over the top in the 2008 caucuses. “No Surprise, Iowa Social Conservatives Are About to Shoot Us All in the Foot Again,” read the headline on Erickson’s post about the new poll. A Santorum surge, Erickson wrote, means Romney is likely to win the nomination.

That prospect doesn’t bother King, who pointed to Romney’s “exemplary family life” with his wife of 42 years and five sons. “He has more children and fewer vices than I have, so how can I criticize him?” King said, in what could be viewed as an appeal to social conservatives to come to terms with Romney’s likely success. “I could do business with Mitt Romney. I could do business with any of these candidates.”

Actually, there is one candidate whose foreign policy position troubles King far more than Romney’s waffling on abortion. Ron Paul advocates pulling all American troops out of foreign countries as part of a massive military disengagement. “That would be a calamity,” King said. He also worries that a Paul victory in the Iowa caucuses would diminish the state’s status because the quirky libertarian is so unlikely to win the nomination.

I don’t think I ever got a chance to post an interview I conducted with Rep. King before the debate in Des Moines on December 10th, so now seems like a good time to do so. King clearly wants to find a candidate he feels comfortable in endorsing, and his endorsement is probably the one left on the table that could still make some difference, but just as was three weeks ago, King still hasn’t found the right fit.

[RockinRight]

Ugh...

[Servant of the Cross]

NBC/Marist. This one isn't biased - American Research Group: Romney 22; Gingrich 17; Paul 16; Santorum 11

[Georgia Girl 2]

Well thats it I guess. Romney has won the GOP nomination. No use in going any further than Iowa. Its over. (sarc)

[heiss]

Santorum is the guy. Besides, he is an actual conservative. He would not have joined Nancy Pelosi or Al Sharpton to promote their liberal issues. Santorum is not a serial cheater. He will not betray conservatives.

Vote for anybody else is wasted. Santorum or Romney. That’s the choice.

[bereanway]

Looks like Perry has a chance to make a big move at 14% with 20% now listing him as their second choice.

Perry will soon become the default choice of the socons as Bachmann and Santorum don’t appear to have a ground game outside of Iowa. The news this morning out of TN seems to confirm as much.

[ilgipper]

If Romney somehow does win Iowa, I don’t see anyone else beating him down the line. Unfortunately. He will win NH, and then someone else, most likely Gingrich would win SC. From there, I would see a standoff much like 2008 where there is a two man race in FL, with the establishment Romney winning by a few percentage over the alternative. Just like McCain pulled out the victory last time over Romney as the alternative.

In a big state like FL media and TV have a lot of influence, and you can be sure some big names like Jeb Bush or someone will come out for Romney in the final days.

Our best bet was/is for Romney to finish down in in the 3rd or 4th spot in Iowa and make it clear to the nation that the voters were rejecting the anointed one. Unfortunately, most of the alternatives have failed to make their case and have been trashed by ‘the field’

[VanDeKoik]

“Santorum is the guy. Besides, he is an actual conservative. “

So the fact that he has no money, and no organization outside of this damn stupid state mean anything to you guys? Did you guy even consider that states that have cities with bigger populations come after this?

Apparently not, because you also dont bother seeing that this dumb run for him is giving Romney 1st and Paul 2nd.

Congrats! I guess losing to a liberal and a frigging nutball is a “true conservative” trait too.

[mmanager]

This is about delegate count. Iowa and New Hampshire is about pro-rating the delegates based on ones finish. When we move to the south it is winner take all. Those southern states are where Newt is going to bury the rest.

Newt fan’s need to be patient, Iowa and New Hampshire may give one a boost but the brass-ring is coming up next and there is no way Mitten’s, WrongPaul and Santorium can sustain their numbers in the south.

I predict Virginia will not matter, it will be over by then.

[heiss]

Policy wise Newt is no different from mitt (inv mandate, gw) and in some areas he is more liberal (amnesty, ethanol subsidies, and frankly, can you imagine romney with Nancy on that couch?).

Santorum is also non-mormon so he can get those non-mormon votes from.

If Santorum pulls off Iowa he is the only alternative to Romney. He can win SC. Money can buy you a lot of things (like former house speaker as your ethanol subsidy “consultant”) but money alone is not decisive in this race.

[Retired Greyhound]

I think Perry is going to surprise folks. And he will be viable in South Carolina and Florida because of his resources.

[org.whodat]

Different time period, dang, pesky facts.

[VanDeKoik]

When you are done in fantasy land, please make sure you turn off the lights.

“Santorum is also non-mormon”??

Is this really what you are banking on? Some petty interdenominational garbage?

Jesus(no pun), does anyone take this election seriously???

[BigBobber]

Santorum looks and acts like a college sophomore. Not his fault. He would probably be a good president, but will never be elected to that high office because of his demeanor. He could not even get re-elected in his own state.

Maybe he wouldn’t sit on a couch with Pelosi, but he endorsed Arlan Specktor - a worse transgression in my mind.

Santorum and Bachmann are running for Vice President. Once you understand that everything starts to make sense.

[tirednvirginia]

Please, everyone. Time for a full-court press on Romney. He hasn’t seen his day yet.

The day Romney becomes the nominee, it will begin and Obama will be reelected.

Why can’t we begin the full court press now? Stop Romney.

[Georgia Girl 2]

Well Romney will probably take Iowa but if Newt finishes in the top 3 in NH he is probably a shoe in for SC. I think Newt will take Fl as he has a good lead and he will definitely take GA. Personally I think way too much emphasis is put on Iowa. There is a lot of resistance to Romney this year just like in 2008. Newt also now has the money to fight back. Romney spent about a gazillion dollars in negative ads on Newt in Iowa and they do tend to work. Newts pledge not to go negative was a bad idea. I have a feeling he will back off on that real quick.

[SENTINEL]

Courtesy of another freeper and Inman from his post earlier today.

"If we must have an enemy at the head of Government, let it be one whom we can oppose, and for whom we are not responsible, who will not involve our party in the disgrace of his foolish and bad measures." - Alexander Hamilton

We will have control of congress after 2012. Given that, it is better that we have an angry and alert populace insisting on political war with an open enemy in the white house, than a slumbering electorate being betrayed by the Benedict Arnold of 2012.

No Romney, PERIOD ! We told them, We told them, We told them ! Personally I'm writing in George Washington if Romney is the candidate.

[JoSixChip]

"Santorum is the guy. Besides, he is an actual conservative. He would not have joined Nancy Pelosi or Al Sharpton to promote their liberal issues."

But he had no problem jumping in bed with and supporting spector.

[heiss]

I would rather vote for obama than newt in ge.
Newt may be able to push amnesty through.

He was radical big gov left wing social engineer in 10 year period.

[BillyBoy]

>> Maybe he wouldn’t sit on a couch with Pelosi, but he endorsed Arlan Specktor - a worse transgression in my mind. <<

A worse transgression than endorsing Specter is when Newt endorsed this thing for Congress, Dede Scozzafava:

And Perry endorsed this 'gal' for POTUS, Rudy Giuliani:

If you can find a GOP presidential candidate that hasn't endorsed an odious RINO scumbag for a major office, I'd love to hear it. Otherwise you're throwing stones in a glass house. When I criticize other GOP presidential candidates for having a lousy record on some issue (like catering to illegals), I don't throw my support to someone else who has done the SAME thing.