This chart is from the 1st regular webpage. I linked the printer friendly page.
Posted on 12/13/2011 7:21:25 PM PST by neverdem
Could the GOP nomination battle end up in a brokered convention? That's the hot question on pundits' minds these days. The correct answer is that there's a chance a brokered convention could occur, but it is exceedingly slim.
To understand why, we need a quick reminder on the Republican nomination system as it exists for 2012. Basically, the Republican National Committee looked enviously at the lengthy Democratic primary from 2008 -- which strengthened the Democrats by forcing candidates to conduct registration drives and set up infrastructure in all 50 states -- and decided that a longer primary system would benefit the GOP as well.
So, it decided to require primaries and caucuses held prior to April 1 to allocate delegates through a proportional representation system. To greatly oversimplify, a candidate who receives at least 25 percent of the vote in any given state will receive that same percentage of the delegates (some states have a 20 percent viability threshold, and some states will have “mini-races” in each congressional district). A total of 1,277 delegates will be awarded prior to April 1, so it is nearly impossible for a candidate to rack up the 1,145 delegates needed to win the nomination outright by the end of March.
The RNC also wanted to avoid a situation such as what occurred in 1976, when neither Gerald Ford nor Ronald Reagan had claimed a majority of the delegates by the time of the Republican National Convention, and the uncertainty surrounding the nomination process allowed Jimmy Carter to claim a double-digit lead in the polls. Therefore, after April 1, states are free to allocate their delegates as they choose. Most of them...
--snip--
Below is a useful chart of the month that each state holds its primary/caucus, and how many delegates are up for grabs:
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
This chart is from the 1st regular webpage. I linked the printer friendly page.
The author usually knows his stuff. Sorry about the oversized chart. I should have opened it in a new window.
You must have missed one state, I can only count 56. ;-).
Thank you!
LLS
Every Election cycle, they predict a Brokered Convention for the Party out of power. The did it for Obozo and Hillary. There is NOT going to be a brokered convention. The last one was 60 years ago in 1952. It ain’t friggin’ happening!!!
Right now we have running:
Bachmann, Newt, Huntsman, Johnson, Paul, Perry, Romney, and Santorum, along with some others that may get on the ballot in one or two states and take 1000 votes or so. It looks like Bachmann, Johnson, Perry, and Santorum are losing or not gaining traction. They may get a couple of delegates, but not many. They will likely drop at some point and endorse others. Likely Newt or in Johnson's case, Paul.
That leaves Newt, Huntsman, Paul, and Romney. Paul will get his 10% of the vote. He'll get some delegates in some mostly small states with caucuses. Huntsman has the money and can rise if Newt or Romney stumbles. He also could spoil Romney in New Hampshire. If Huntsman doesn't gain ground by NH, he's likely done.
After New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina, funding will either skyrocket or dry up depending on results. It'll be a two way race with the rest being protest votes. Then likely Newt or Romney will suspend their campaign after Super Tuesday and we'll have our nominee.
Money will be exhausted far faster.
It has already started... newt is his own worst enemy... he always telegraphs the real newt... he cannot help himself... even when he knows that he will suffer right wing blow back... just as he did in the You Tube video of his montage of FDR love...
http://www.businessinsider.com/hey-remember-when-newt-gingrich-thought-progressive-fdr-was-the-greatest-president-of-the-20th-century-2011-12#ooid=M5Ym40MzoHl7iiX9QcxHsPG9Rlo0C4Hi
where newt says, "I have said it before... and it always gets me in hot water with the right... but I think that the greatest President of the modern era... the Greatest President of the 20th Century... was Franklin Delano Roosevelt".
From his embracing of fdr as the best President of the last Century... to his voting for the Brady Bill and the Lautenberg Bill... to his alliance with the UN and CFR... progressivism runs long... it runs deep and it runs continuously throughout newt's career.
LLS
I would like to see the state that voted Republican in the last election have more influence then the state that vote Demo.
However, on another thread I made an observation about Reagan and that issue. Reagan was not a member of CFR but he knew that that group has sewn up elections in this country since the early 1920s, although their first huge victory was the election of Woodrow Wilson before WWI. Reagan knew that in order to accomplish his short range goals he was going to have to toe the CFR line in appointments and staffing for their long range objectives. That's why he chose GHWB as his veep. Bush was a former Director of CFR and if you'll recall he was the one who actually much later during his own Presidency coined the phrase New World Order into the modern lexicon. Then Reagan proceeded to staff every single one of his cabinet secretaries and their deputies down about six levels with CFR members. It's not like he was dancing to their tune, but he knew all the musicians and all the songs and he was willing to "hum along" in order to get the job done. HIS job done. That is a simple fact of political life in this country. I mean in addition to being CFR both the Bush's are also BONESMEN as well! Talk about elitist cabals!
Nothing of substance gets done in American politics unless it has the CFR stamp of approval and that goes for both major parties and most 3rd parties, too. Everybody knows this has been the case since the creeping incremental takeover of our government by the shadow players in the 1920's. Later came Bilderbergers. The best that we can hope for at this point is that Newt will choose a real veep with deep conservative convictions like Bachmann or Perry or Cain. Then we can only hope that he really DOES choose Bolton for State and Palin for Energy and .... well you get the idea. If he has enough conservatives (real Patriots) in his cabinet, they will keep him in line or they'll blow the whistle when needed to call out the militia to remind him from whence real power flows in a Constitutional Republic. Likewise we can hope for a more solidly conservative Congress.
Since smoking has been banned in public spaces like backrooms, I don’t see it happening. ;)
Romney's imploding in Iowa and he's in a freefall in New Hampshire. If you believe what Newsmax says. Huntsman and Romney will likely be gone after New Hampshire goes to the polls. I see Paul staying in due to momentum that he's gained in the early states like Iowa and New Hampshire. Paul is in third place at the moment in New Hampshire and at this rate he will be in second place before New Hampshire goes to the polls. I actually think Paul will get more than 10%
Huntsman hasn't gained ground throughout this campaign and he won't gain ground any time in the future. That's being overly hopeful for a guy who is nothing more than a sock puppet for the Obama Regime.
I hope a new candidate jumps in or there is a brokered convention but I doubt it will happen. The former, maaaaybe. The latter, very low odds.
The system is junk because the system is corrupt and controlled.
LLS
CFR is but one of hundreds of progressive stains on newt’s candidacy... just one of many... and not the most progressive problem that he has... not even close.
LLS
A brokered convention is far from unlikely, given the new delegate apportionment system. Every candidate who declines to fold prior to the convention is going to have some votes in his/her backpocket which they may be able to trade to a candidate higher up.
Another scenario is where three candidates come into the convention and none of them have enough votes to knock out the other two. Somebody will have to give his endorsement to another candidate.
I was part of a Jaycee convention once where the third highest candidate refused to fold for ballot after ballot. His troops held behind him for ballot after ballot. Finally one of the leaders began to lose a trickle of votes and rather than give up to his biggest and bitterest rival, he directed his supporters to vote to the third candidate who won after more than 24 hours of balloting. It can happen.
The most likely candidates for the above scenario are Romney and Newt as the highest candidate with Perry the third place guy. (I’m going out on a limb here, but I don’t think Paul has the staying power except in Iowa and Bachman, Santorum probably don’t have the money once past Iowa to improve their percentages.)
I understand the risk they pose to our future sovereignty and still I support Newt this time. But let's see how Bachmann does in Iowa and SC.
I am praying hard for her. Anybody but newt, romney or obama... or huntsman... I mean he is an obama clone.
LLS
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