[neverdem]

This chart is from the 1st regular webpage. I linked the printer friendly page.

[neverdem]

The author usually knows his stuff. Sorry about the oversized chart. I should have opened it in a new window.

[JimSEA]

You must have missed one state, I can only count 56. ;-).

[upchuck]

I linked the printer friendly page.

Thank you!

[LibLieSlayer]

Slim but possible... but then no one can ever predict politics... although a lot of money is made in doing so.

LLS

[Darren McCarty]

I happen to agree. The other reason is momentum.

Right now we have running:
Bachmann, Newt, Huntsman, Johnson, Paul, Perry, Romney, and Santorum, along with some others that may get on the ballot in one or two states and take 1000 votes or so. It looks like Bachmann, Johnson, Perry, and Santorum are losing or not gaining traction. They may get a couple of delegates, but not many. They will likely drop at some point and endorse others. Likely Newt or in Johnson's case, Paul.

That leaves Newt, Huntsman, Paul, and Romney. Paul will get his 10% of the vote. He'll get some delegates in some mostly small states with caucuses. Huntsman has the money and can rise if Newt or Romney stumbles. He also could spoil Romney in New Hampshire. If Huntsman doesn't gain ground by NH, he's likely done.

After New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina, funding will either skyrocket or dry up depending on results. It'll be a two way race with the rest being protest votes. Then likely Newt or Romney will suspend their campaign after Super Tuesday and we'll have our nominee.

[newzjunkey]

A total of 1,277 delegates will be awarded prior to April 1, so it is nearly impossible for a candidate to rack up the 1,145 delegates needed to win the nomination outright by the end of March.

Money will be exhausted far faster.

[Big Horn]

I would like to see the state that voted Republican in the last election have more influence then the state that vote Demo.

[BigSkyFreeper]

Since smoking has been banned in public spaces like backrooms, I don’t see it happening. ;)

[Impy]

I hope a new candidate jumps in or there is a brokered convention but I doubt it will happen. The former, maaaaybe. The latter, very low odds.

[wildbill]

A brokered convention is far from unlikely, given the new delegate apportionment system. Every candidate who declines to fold prior to the convention is going to have some votes in his/her backpocket which they may be able to trade to a candidate higher up.

Another scenario is where three candidates come into the convention and none of them have enough votes to knock out the other two. Somebody will have to give his endorsement to another candidate.

I was part of a Jaycee convention once where the third highest candidate refused to fold for ballot after ballot. His troops held behind him for ballot after ballot. Finally one of the leaders began to lose a trickle of votes and rather than give up to his biggest and bitterest rival, he directed his supporters to vote to the third candidate who won after more than 24 hours of balloting. It can happen.

The most likely candidates for the above scenario are Romney and Newt as the highest candidate with Perry the third place guy. (I’m going out on a limb here, but I don’t think Paul has the staying power except in Iowa and Bachman, Santorum probably don’t have the money once past Iowa to improve their percentages.)