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Obama’s Middle East Policy: A Unified Field Theory
Rubin Reports ^ | 12/05/2011 | Barry Rubin

Posted on 12/04/2011 8:22:30 PM PST by goldstategop

In the history of physics, the “unified field theory” was an attempt to bring together an understanding of all forms of energy in a single explanation. Albert Einstein tried and failed to discover this. I don’t know much about physics but I know about Middle East policy.

So here’s an effort to bring together all of Obama’s regional policy into a single analysis and explaining everything in 1100 words.

The first point is that the Obama Administration’s behavior must be divided into two phases. They overlap and feature the same kind of thinking but they are also quite separate.

Phase One, from January 2009 until December 2011 was characterized by an emphasis on Israel-Palestinian peacemaking. Obama’s Administration believed that it was possible to make rapid progress toward peace and also thought that this was essential to achieve anything else in the Middle East.

To achieve peace, they thought, required mainly putting pressure on Israel for more concessions and winning support from Arab states and Muslims by proving that the United States was more sympathetic to them than any previous presidency.

I don’t want to review all of the details but this included being more critical of Israel, lavishly flattering Arabs and Muslims, asking Arab states for help, demanding a building freeze on Israeli settlements, adding a construction stop in east Jerusalem to these demands, calling for a December 2009 Camp David summit, urging a return to the 1967 borders with minor changes, and other steps.

There were many subtle barbs here at Israel that pro-Obama and many anti-Obama writers missed. For example, the Obama Administration at first reneged on its predecessor’s promise that Israel could keep West Bank “settlement blocs.” The Obama Administration secretly agreed not to ask for a freeze in east Jerusalem and then broke that promise by publicly attacking Israel on that point. The real problem with the “1967 borders” stance was that the Obama called for an Israeli return to the 1967 borders only after which there would be negotiations to determine what changes, if any, would be made.

There are two key points to make here. The first is that U.S. policy was a total failure, something the Administration admitted. The second was that the failure came due to Arab state refusal to help and Palestinian Authority total rejectionism. The Administration has never admitted, perhaps not really understood, this factor.

It was easy to overstate the nature of the gap between U.S. policy and Israel. Most of the Administration activities were purely verbal and not material. Military aid and relationships with Israel continued. The Israeli government handled these problems pretty well. By late 2009 the relationship had been basically stabilized and not too much harm had been done.

Phase Two: Of course, the basic ideas that would characterize Phase Two were visible from the beginning of the Obama Administration. Yet here, too, the most important points were often missed. Take Obama’s Cairo speech, for example. It was criticized on various grounds—the hollow “even-handedness,” the implication that Israel was only the result of the Holocaust, the invitation of Muslim Brotherhood leaders, etc.

But the super-elephant in the room that nobody else has ever noted is this: Obama endorsed an Islamic identity for the Arabs over and above nationalism or loyalty to any specific state. It was not a pro-Arab speech but a pro-Islamist speech.

Another aspect of this policy of being nice to Islamists (or Islamist allies like Syria) and mean to historic U.S. allies was the Obama Administration’s slowness to move toward sanctions against Iran, its softness toward Turkey, Hizballah and other radical forces in Lebanon, and Syria. It even gave aid and comfort to Hamas in the Gaza Strip by pressing Israel to reduce sanctions to a minimum.

While other elements of this approach can be cited from the first few years, this approach took the lead beginning in January 2011 with the onset of the “Arab Spring.” Obama didn’t just endorse democracy, he actively worked to bring down governments friendly to the United States (Egypt, Tunisia, and Bahrain) and ignored the views and interests of other U.S. allies (Israel, Jordan Saudi Arabia). Ignoring the State Department’s proposal of a cautious transition, he swept away the barriers to Islamist takeovers. The Libyan operation, whatever its motivations, amounted to the same thing.

During the earlier part of Phase Two–in February 2011 when the upheaval was happening–Obama was still in denial. When asked about the Muslim Brotherhood, he responded:

“I think that the Muslim Brotherhood is one faction in Egypt. They don’t have majority support in Egypt. But they are well-organized and there are strains of their ideology that are anti-U.S. There’s no doubt about it. But here’s the thing that we have to understand, there are a whole bunch of secular folks in Egypt, there are a whole bunch of educators and civil society in Egypt that wants to come to the fore as well. And it’s important for us not the say that our only two options are either the Muslim Brotherhood or a suppressed Egyptian people.

“What I want a representative government in Egypt. And I have confidence that if Egypt moves in an orderly transition process, that we will have a government in Egypt that we can work with together as a partner.”

In other words, the people can’t get it wrong; the Brotherhood can’t win; and everything will be all right. As the months passed, however, this evolved into believing that the people can’t get it wrong; the Brotherhood will win; and everything will be all right.

The Clinton and Panetta speeches explain the new policy. Have no doubt that all of these statements are coordinated along with many others. The talking points have gone out to everyone. The phrases and concepts–like the idea that Israel is isolating itself–have been used more than once. These are not isolated errors but rather following the White House-designated script.

For example the U.S. ambassador to Belgium explains to a conference of Jewish lawyers that Muslim antisemitism stems from Israel’s policy (thus ignoring centuries of proof to the contrary) and will end if Israel reaches a peace agreement with the Palestinians (thus ignoring the fact that Islamists oppose any peace agreement and do everything possible to block it). He also showed a video of himself being warmly applauded while visiting a Muslim school. Before the stunned participants in the conference could respond, he left.

Summary: Muslims good; Islamists moderate; No peace? Israel’s fault; ears closed. Have a nice day!

In brief, the Obama Administration encourages and supports the coming to power of fanatically anti-Israel groups, then have the nerve to say Israel is becoming isolated because it isn’t making enough concessions! They encourage and support the rise of regimes that are totally against any peace with Israel or any two-state solution, then have the nerve to say that Israel can defuse the situation by making peace.

In the new phase, the Turkish Islamist regime became Obama’s guru. The Turkish model was presented as the best route for the future. To Obama’s Administration, this mean a stable democracy incorporating “moderate Islamism.” In reality, it means takeovers by radical Islamists pretending to adhere to democratic norms.

The Administration assumes that the Muslim Brotherhood would be moderate. Only the barest lip service was given to its need to prove its credentials. The Obama Administration actually welcomed Islamist victories in Egypt and Tunisia, while doing nothing to prevent that from happening in Libya. In Syria, the Obama Administration collaborated with Turkey to push Islamists to the fore in running the Syrian opposition.

In short, the Obama Administration has taken the Islamist side, the side of anti-American, anti-Western, genocide-minded toward Israel, anti-Christian, and anti-women’s rights forces. It keeps insisting that these are harmless forces, even the “good guys” who will bring about true democracy.

As a result, every traditional Arab ally in the region has been betrayed, as well as Israel. Every real democratic movement in the region has been betrayed (Egypt, Iran, Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, etc.) either by a failure to help them, by active U.S. help for their enemy, or both.

The results are predictably catastrophic. As the danger becomes increasingly obvious, as the Islamists show their fangs, the Obama Administration will ignore it. As crises develop further, the Obama Administration will either do nothing or side with the aggressors.

This kind of problem is totally unprecedented in the history of U.S. Middle East policy. There have, of course, been many mistakes. Yet policymakers have kept some ambiguity in analyzing these developments. The Obama Administration has no doubts.

Previous policymakers who are professionals dedicated to protecting U.S. interests have been open-minded to recognizing that they were wrong and adjusting policy accordingly. By now, with the landslides for Islamists in Egypt and Tunisia they would have quickly changed course. The Obama Administration is singularly closed-minded and, unfortunately, these bad tendencies are endorsed by much of the media and academic “experts” who, in the past, provided a critical perspective.

The president is systematically removing strong and knowledgeable people from top posts. The national security advisor and the secretary of defense are now political hacks, mere mouthpieces for Obama. While Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has at times showed dissent, she has now been turned into a puppet either because she accepts the policy or is just going through the motions and counting the days until she leaves office, presumably to be replaced by another pawn of the White House

It is clear that Obama will neither learn nor change and if he is given a second term, the whirlwind will be reaped.


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Government; Israel; News/Current Events; Philosophy
KEYWORDS: barackobama; barryrubin; islam; islamobama; islamofascism; israel; middleeast; middleeastpolicy; muslimbrotherhood; obamaislam; rubinreports; salafists; unifiedfieldtheory
The Obama Administration's Middle East policy is disintegrating and leading to a dangerous situation for the United States. This is exactly why he must be denied a second term in 2012.
1 posted on 12/04/2011 8:22:42 PM PST by goldstategop
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To: goldstategop

I think it is very unlikely that a Republican will be elected in 2012. Everything is going according to the plan, and the GOP is in on it.


2 posted on 12/04/2011 8:26:30 PM PST by ClearCase_guy (Nothing will change until after the war. It's coming.)
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To: goldstategop

It’s clear O’s policy is to bring about a fundamentalist radical islamic Caliphate. No question about it.


3 posted on 12/04/2011 9:17:03 PM PST by Secret Agent Man (I'd like to tell you, but then I'd have to kill you.)
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Comment #4 Removed by Moderator

Comment #5 Removed by Moderator

To: goldstategop

This regime’s policy can be summed up in three words: “F* your friends” or two words in Arabic: “Allah Akbar”.


6 posted on 12/05/2011 1:56:42 AM PST by NTHockey (Rules of engagement #1: Take no prisoners)
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To: NTHockey; goldstategop

“This regime’s policy can be summed up in two words in Arabic: “Allah Akbar”.”

That’s it!

Although some evangelicals consider Obama the AntiChrist I think he is the one who will facilitate the caliphate. Bringing Islam together to attack Israel, and we all know how that ends =/


7 posted on 12/05/2011 2:45:42 AM PST by vanilla swirl (We are the Patrick Henry we have been waiting for!)
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To: dennisw; Cachelot; Nix 2; veronica; Catspaw; knighthawk; Alouette; Optimist; weikel; Lent; GregB; ..
Middle East and terrorism, occasional political and Jewish issues Ping List. High Volume

If you’d like to be on or off, please FR mail me.

..................

8 posted on 12/05/2011 5:28:07 AM PST by SJackson (Haven't changed the environment, just take a bath. Eat a piece of chocolate. You need one. Michelle)
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To: goldstategop

The article assumes the US is relevant. The truth is that Obama is ignored, discounted if you will. Early on he was determined to be the insignificant twit that he actually is.

He is playing but by himself. The middle east is now playing a different game and he doesn’t know it.


9 posted on 12/05/2011 5:56:48 AM PST by bert (K.E. N.P. +12 ..... Crucifixion is coming)
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To: All

The average American hasn’t a clue how much of our tax money Obama has sent down Muslim sh*t holes while he threatens to cut medicare and withold senior’s social security checks!

BILLIONS FOR JIHAD!

Obamas 2009 Supplemental Appropriations for Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Pandemic Flu was revised and passed by the full committee.
It gives billions http://creepingsharia.wordpress.com/2009/05/1...
of U.S. taxpayer dollars to countries and entities that support Sharia law and/or harbor, hide and support those who want to destroy the U.S. and our allies.
Read the summary from David Obeys office that was quietly released last week with nary a word from any media.

$3.6 billion, matching the request, to expand and improve capabilities of the Afghan security forces

$400 million, as requested, to build the counterinsurgency capabilities of the Pakistani security forces

Afghanistan:$1.52 billion,$86 million above the request

West Bank and Gaza:$665 million in bilateral economic, humanitarian, and security assistance for the West Bank and Gaza

Jordan:$250 million,$250 million above the request, including $100 million for economic and $150 million for security assistance

Egypt:$360 million,$310 million above the request, including $50 million for economic assistance,$50 million for border security, and $260 million for security assistance

Pakistan:$1.9 billion,$591 million above the request

Iraq:$968 million,$336 million above the request

Oversight:$20 million,$13 million above the request, to expand oversight capacity of the State Department, USAID, and the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan to review programs in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq
Lebanon:$74 million

International Food Assistance:$500 million,$200 million above the request, for PL 480 international food assistance to alleviate suffering during the global economic crisis

Refugee Assistance:$343 million,$50 million above the request, including humanitarian assistance for Gaza. Funding for the UN Relief and Works Agency programs in the West Bank and Gaza is limited to $119 million (Note: Gaza = Hamas)

Disaster Assistance:$200 million to avert famines and provide life-saving assistance during natural disasters and for internally displaced people around the world, including Somalia, Zimbabwe, Ethiopia, the Middle East and South Asia

Peacekeeping:$837 million for United Nations
peacekeeping operations, including an expanded mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and a new mission in Chad and the Central African Republic

Department of Justice:$17 million, matching the request, for counter-terrorism activities and to provide training and assistance for the Iraqi criminal justice system
Obama gives your tax dollars to rebuild Muslim mosques around the world
http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/... #

ACCORDING TO THE ASSOCIATED PRESS, THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION WILL GIVE AWAY NEARLY $6 MILLION OF AMERICAN TAX DOLLARS TO RESTORE 63 HISTORIC AND CULTURAL SITES, INCLUDING ISLAMIC MOSQUES AND MINARETS, IN 55 NATIONS. See the State Department document here.
http://exchanges.state.gov/media/pdfs/office-...

And THAT’S just the tip of the iceberg.
THIS will blow your mind!!

http://gbk.eads.usaidallnet.gov/
They should have 2010 up, but they don’t. That’s where you’ll find Obama’s largesse towards Muslim countries really go off the charts.
.
http://www.foreignassistance.gov/DataView.aspx

charts:

http://gbk.eads.usaidallnet.gov/data/fast-facts.html

.


10 posted on 01/01/2012 4:44:25 AM PST by patriot08 (TEXAS GAL- born and bred and proud of it!)
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