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Posted on 11/22/2011 7:19:56 AM PST by Notwithstanding
The Political Derby Composite Poll is a tool that takes the most recent major polls and weights their results based on poll age, sample type, and margin of error each day using a proprietary formula. Unlike other poll compilations, this is not a simple average. The polls that make up the PD Composite are well-known reputable national polls who sample “likely primary voters” and “registered voters”, as opposed to only “adults, including, but not limited to: NBC News/Wall Street Journal, Pew Research, Quinnipiac University, and Rasmussen Reports... The PD Composite will be updated in a regular post that will run at least weekly, or more often if new polling data changes results significantly.
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EXACTLY!
As as to taking out those opposed to Romney, I think they have taken out or damaged themselves by their performance in debates (Perry) or performance in glibly answering complicated questions (Cain on foreign affairs). And BTW Cain is still doing quite well.
As to Romney, he is so dull and unlikeable...what's to attack?
I don't think it'll be Romney because Romney can only muster 20-25% support. And on top of that, everyone is sick and tired of being told who the nominee will be by "D.C. insiders."
Even the democrats are protecting Romney while we debate. Gee. I wonder why (NOT).
It's not like he's really a closet liberal or anything. (/s)
EXACTLY! - except you have to also add in Bachman, Perry, Santorum and probably Paul.
28% = RINO (Romney or Huntsman)
72% = Non-RINO
Ditto that!
Oh yeah. Same here. We're battling the Washington elites and their talking heads in the press. They want Romney, and they're trying to shove him down our throats. All we can do is try to fight back.
This gives me hope for a Cain victory in the primaries again. Go, Cain!
Romney supporters = < 26% (= All Libs)
Cain Supporters + Gingrich Supporters + Santorum Supporters + Bachmann Supporters + Perry Supporters = > 75%
The conservatives OUTNUMBER the LIBS!!!! We have TOO MANY Conservatives running. They need to get together, pick a candidate and support him/her and BLOW away Romney in the Primary!!!!
If we DON’T do this, we are facing ANOTHER McCain type debacle.
Its BAD ENOUGH those two twits Boehner and McConnell BLEW things by capitulating on that Supercommittee. NOW 32% of Americans blame the DEMOCRATS in Congress and 42% of Americans blame the GOP for the budget mess!!!
If the GOP can’t defeat Obama and take control of Congress, that political party has forfeited its right to exist. It needs to go.
Yeah, but it's steady. No one - not even the other Republican candidates - are really trying to take him out because of it.
The conservative candidates should gang up on him and move him out before it's too late. Rove Inc. has chosen him, so he's still going to be standing in the end, and that gives him unlimited funds, too.
That would boost Cain by about 10% more.
Then, if Cain wins South Caorlina and does well in New Hampshire, I hope Perry will bow out and that will throw another 10+ percent to Cain.
I do not expect Paul to get out any time soon.
So, then you have Cain, Romney, Gingritch and Paul. If Cain wins Florida...Gingritch may get out at that point and the majority of his support (maybe 2/3rds) goes to Cain. At that point, if it goes that way, you are looking at Cain with maybe 55-60%, Romney with 30-35% and Paul with his stanbing 10%.
The Cain train should roll on from there.
But that's a lot of what-ifs and speculation. Let's see what happens in Iowa first.
New Hampshire is usually pretty liberal, right? I would think Romney, or Huntsman would do well there. I don't see New Hampshire voting for a black conservative. Maybe, but I just don't see it.
SC would be great if Cain could take it. That would be huge.
I think it is most likely that Romney will take New Hampshire...but they are not as liberal as most people think. For the NE US they are pretty conservative. I believe Cain can do well there, although Romney will probably take it. If Cain takes New Hampshire...then that will be an earth shaking event politically for the GOP.
Dems vote in the Republican primary. Most of Mitts supporters there will vote for 0bama.
—”It’s time for Bachmann, Santorum and Huntsman to throw in the towel. Tell their supporters that they gave it their best effort and openly endorse one of the viable candidates.”
Hey, I’m a Cain supporter, but you are talking crazy.
It’s only the middle of November.
Here’s a flashback from Nov. 7th, 2007 in which Rasmussen attempts to prognosticate based upon November poll numbers and, as you can see, he got it waaaay wrong:
http://www.conservative.org/wp-content/themes/Conservative/bl-archive/Issues/issue95/071106pol.php
“It’s also fairly easy to suggest that Mike Huckabee and John McCain are very, very long shots. It is hard to see them getting the nomination without major mistakes from all the other campaigns. But, given the volatility of the race, it’s not quite possible to rule them out.
“Among the top three candidates—Giuliani, Thompson, and Romney—it remains much easier to show why each of them should lose the nomination rather than win it. But, barring a major surprise, one of those three will be the Republican nominee in 2008. “
In other words, it’s too early for ANYONE to throw in the towel just yet.
Cheers
Cain bump. In before the Perry/Romney/Gingrich spinners.
That said, while Romney is steady, the anti-Romney vote that vacillates among the others is also steady. If two of Romney's prime competitors (Gingrich, Perry, or Cain) dropped, I believe the votes would shift not to Romney but to the one of that trio remaining.
Cain, Gringrich, and Perry are all very likeable candidates. Even though each has his weakness, they are all good candidates that voters could get excited about.
Romney on the other hand is stiff and dull and insincere. In fact, Romney generates about as much excitement as that nice young Mormon missionary riding up to your front door on his bicycle. As clean cut and decent as he may be...you just wish he would go away.
If Romney wins the nomination, our goose is cooked.
I agree and having participated in Cook County politics for decades suspect something. Cui bono if they stay in?
Agreed, but Cain’s risk is that he has solid adherents who will overlook the bad press and see it for what it is. He won’t make it in the general if he can’t cut it now. His answers of late make him look amateurish and dangerously naive.
Reagan had well thought out positions that took him decades to refine. His gut could lead him because he’d studied so hard and thought so deeply. The myth that Reagan was a dolt actually benefited him against his enemies.
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I think you’re right. Sitting here typing we can imagine anything, but all the candidates have to live in the real world. How many FReepers have ever run a campaign or run for office?
I suspect the GOP ticket will be Romney/Rubio.
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