Posted on 09/20/2011 10:11:50 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
A good poll for Romney, a mediocre one for Perry, and pure devastation for Bachmann. She was at 13 percent in early August, shortly before Perry jumped in, and 10 percent in late August. Now she’s tied with Cain and Gingrich for fourth place, a good eight points behind, um, Ron Paul. Game over.
Perry is stronger among Republicans and independents who lean Republican, the voters who settle nominations. In a head-to-head race, 49% say they would vote for Perry, 39% for Romney…
In the poll, 44% say they definitely would not vote for Perry; 35% say that of Romney. Looked at another way, 62% say would either definitely vote for Romney or consider doing so; 53% say that of Perry.
Perry has increased his standing a bit, compared with results from Gallup’s daily poll in late August, but Romney has narrowed the gap between them. Then, Perry led Romney, 29%-17%. His 12-point margin is down to 7 points…
In the poll, 53% say they would prefer the nominee with the best chance of beating Obama; 43% say they want the candidate who agrees with them on almost all issues.
The boldface bit tells you why this is a good poll for Romney and only a mediocre one for Perry. (That plus the fact that Romney’s gained ground since last time, natch.) Head to head, Mitt leads Obama by two but Perry trails by five; the more numbers like that we see, the more Romney can capitalize on the majority of primary voters who are leaning towards electability in their desperation to oust Obama. The other takeaway from this, I think, is that Perry’s window to steamroll the rest of the field is now closed. If he had had two monster debate performances and widened his lead over Romney, you might see more big donors starting to shake loose and fall into his camp as the inevitable nominee. As it is, Palin must be watching his backsliding and Bachmann’s collapse and feeling more encouraged to run than ever. Still plenty of tea-party votes in play, and who knows how much of Perry’s support is owed not to his jobs record or any personal attribute but simply to him being a “true conservative” alternative to Romney. Palin, having a stronger brand, can pull some of those votes and make it a three-way race. Even if she falls short against Romney on electability grounds, by topping Perry she’d preserve her status as America’s most prominent tea-party pol.
One other point about electability. I’ve been meaning to post about this since last week but might as well toss it in here. How much do Democrats fear a Perry presidency? Maybe this much:
[G]iven these growing fears that Obama may lose in 2012 to any Republican with a pulse, maybe it’s time for Democrats to stop hoping that Perry will be the next Barry Goldwater. There’s admittedly not much they can do to shape the outcome of the presidential primaries, but they might wish to think twice before using their rapid-response teams to help Perry bury Romney.
One party operative close to these decisions told me there have been a “lot of conversations” about the dilemma, with some labor and environmental groups arguing for easing up on the anti-Romney message machine out of a belief that he would be the “lesser of two evils.”
Good thinking. If Obama is doomed, who would Democrats rather have in possession of the nuclear suitcase: the technocratic Romney, or the coyote-shooting Perry?
That’s practically a campaign ad for Perry in the primaries, not only according to “they’ll tell you who they fear” logic but as a knife in Romney’s electability argument. If Democrats are so desperately worried about The One losing to Perry in the general that they’d ease up on Romney to help him win the nomination, how unelectable can he be? Right, Perry ad team?
Here’s the sadly obligatory “Paul Gigot thinks Christie is still thinking about running” clip, which as far as I know is completely unsupported by any evidence that Christie really is thinking about running. In fact, in the entire course of the months-long “Christie for president” saga, I can’t recall a single syllable uttered by the man himself encouraging people to believe he might consider it. Ah well. The filing deadline to get on the ballot is next month, I believe, so this’ll all be over soon. Just a few more stories here and there to endure about Mitch Daniels or Paul Ryan moping about the state of the field and then we can concentrate on the race as is.
The horses are taking the second turn. I would not want to predict a winner yet, though a mare looks like it has run out of steam.
To really mop the floor with Obama you need to get jaded conservatives off their duffs in late 2012 (to register to vote if not registered, then to vote). Is Romney that kind of inspiration? Perry has more energy, IMHO, and doesn’t have the mysterious-Mormon factor that could cause some to stay their vote.
Still well below 50%. Will be much more comfortable when the third tier candidates start dropping out if their votes do not go to Romney.
How did McCain poll this point into primary warmups?
NICE TRY. But it doesn’t work.
THe leftwing media has been busy blasting conservative candidatres who appear to be in the lead. They have even blasted conservatives who aren’t even running.
But they are SILENT on Romney.
Wonder why?
JUST LIKE MCCAIN in 2008, THEIR choice is Romney in 2012 BECAUSE THEY KNOW he will have the HARDEST time beating OBAMA!!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2012_2008_gop_presidential_race_4_years_ago.html
Complete and in usable format!
By all means pick the candidate most likely to win. Worked in ‘08. If they give me Rick Bush, I won’t be there. I voted for Bush in ‘00. I’d just as soon I hadn’t now.
Absolutely not a Romney, supporter, but on this issue of the “Mormon-factor”, given how weak Obama is, I don’t see how it would effect the Southern States (GA, AL, MS, TN, KY) to give the state to Obama.
Romney would carry all the McCain states. He would also probably carry IN by about 6-7 points. IF the race is about the Economy, then FL/OH seem very much up his alley. The 2 states I am most concerned with for him would be NC and VA. We’ve seen what happens when you try to run a “moderate” in VA. NC has enough of a demographic make-up that could keep the state blue if the “Mormon-factor” played a role. Romney has to be concerned because NC+VA = 28 EV’s. Romney wants to make a play for the upper midwest in WI/MI. Even if he won these two traditionally blue states, he’d still fall 2 EV’s short of offsetting the losses in VA/NC. Romney wants to win NC,VA,OH,FL,IN and NH, which would get him to 270.
I don’t think Rick Perry has the same problem Romney does in VA/NC. It’s almost certain he would take Rubio to secure FL. OH votes as the economy goes, so if it still sucks, I see it very difficult for Obama to win again there. That leaves 1 more state Perry has to pick up to get over 270. His best shot I believe would be in NM.
bumpa de bump.
As one of those who would not vote for Romney (an Obama clone from a bizarre sect that is the closest to Islam and actually had to be subdued by the US Cavalry so they wouldn’t take over US territory and drive out Americans in order to set up their own sharia-type law), I can say —NO WAY.
I have worked for GOP presidential candidates who I thought were total losers (McCain), and for Bush, who most people on this board appear to hate. I voted, essentially, for Palin, but I wouldn’t vote for a GOP VP this time around because I think it’s a waste of time. Why should the GOP think that you present a loser as the Presidential candidate and then try to shore him up with a good VP pick?
I don’t care who Romney picks to be his VP, I ain’t voting.
And if he’s the candidate, I’m not working for the GOP this time around. In fact, I wouldn’t even vote for Romney. The major issue in this thing is not the deficit, but Big Government, and Romney is all on the side of the big government that eats your life.
I simply won’t vote in the next election except for local candidates (and I certainly won’t be on the phone tree or being a poll watcher, as I have done in the past) if this odious Obama clone is selected by our GOP masters to be “our” candidate.
A GOP ham sandwich would probably walk away with the votes in 2012. Obama is the devil America knows, and most of America agrees now that he is not wanted.
My analysis of our current choices:
Perry - Executive experience and a good track record, mostly conservative with problems on immigration.
Romney - Politician....will say anything, take any position for a vote. You cannot fight Obamacare with Romney.
Bachmann - Great conservative but no executive or leadership experience. Has made some strange statements/mistakes that are causing doubt.
Paul - Attacks Republicans more than Obama.
Cain - Great conservative, accomplished executive, but lacking political experience.
Gingrich - most well-spoken, intelligent conservative who has compromised those credentials with global warming and in his personal life.
Santorum - well-spoken conservative. No leadership experience and his loss in 2006 hurts his chances.
Huntsman - he is only there as a media darling, should be running in the Democrat primary.
Given the current choices, Perry is the best compromise.
Thanks! It’s amazing how low Romney was polling.
McCain proved very disappointing in 2008 with his remark that there “would be nothing to fear” from a President Obama. While he may have been referring in that context to Obama’s color, and I would agree that color ought not to be a factor, surely McCain knew that there would be a lot to fear from Obama’s stupidity — from Democrat and socialist policies promulgated by a President Obama.
Perry has, at least, declared an interest in being Obama’s “worst nightmare.” To have an opposition that actually opposes, is half the battle it seems.
Romney has launched attack ads at Perry, some of this being based upon things that Romney was for after he was against it. How has Romney represented himself as being a superior choice to Obama? That’s not so clear. Although he is a bone headed booster of failed local versions of Obamacare, he has repeatedly stated he does not want a national version of Obamacare and would gladly sign a bill abolishing it. That, a Republican Congress might grant him.
I live in Florida, and Florida would vote conservative no matter what. We all love Rubio because he’s a great speaker and really projects a conservative message.
I think he’d overshadow any of the GOP “front-runners,” but I’m not sure conservatives want to vote for VP again. I held my nose with McCain and voted for him because I liked Palin. But the turnout on the GOP side wasn’t great
Having worked the phone trees and been a poll-watcher, I can tell you that a huge number of the registered GOP voters I contacted said, “Yes, I’ll vote, but can I leave the presidential slot blank?” So we need a good (not “hold your nose”) presidential candidate.
Palin obviously does not want to run, Bachmann has gotten flaky (I thought she was better and more articulate than Palin, but she jumped the shark with the attack on Perry), and it seems now that we are down to Perry (who has actually raised his own money) and Romney, who is wealthy and is planning to spend nearly a billion dollars on his campaign...just like Obama.
Virginia will not be Øbammy territory in 2012. Take it to the bank.
To be sure, the Mormon factor will probably cause Romney to lose some votes among evangelicals in Southside and SW Virginia, but I think he’ll appeal better than will Perry to independents and Yankees in Fairfax County — just as the soft-spoken Bob McDonnell was able to carry FFX during the 2009 gubernatorial race.
Moreover, I think the chance to “re-install” George Allen in the U. S. Senate will rev up the Repub base for a big turnout — even tho’ my saying so will probably get me flamed by the tiny coterie of Allen-bashers who usually show up on FR’s Virginia-themed threads!
Therefore, all in all, I think Virginia is a very safe GOP bet for 2012.
Yeah....puts things in perspective.
Sad. I had high hopes for Bachmann but she was not ready for prime time.
In the recent incident that brought Mrs. Bachmann the most controversy — pointing out a rare side effect of Gardasil and agonizing on TV about the innocent girls which would have been subjected to the risk — I see a mother jealous for the freedom of her American godchildren, as it were. She did not want Gardasil banned and had no problem with Perry recommending it, but no way should it go on a mandatory list even with a loophole (private schools were disputing the loophole at the time the legislature shot it down) and neither should it be added to mandatory insurance plans, bumping up everybody’s premiums whether or not they choose Gardasil. Better to provide outright subsidies to the poor who would want to choose it or an equivalent vaccine.
If Michelle leaves the battle, I think she will ask her supporters to throw their support to Cain, who in turn when he leaves will ask his supporters to throw their support to Perry. Neither of those two are particularly fond of Romney. Too much squish.
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