Posted on 08/30/2011 12:07:30 PM PDT by Sgt_Schultze
Never-Wrong Pundit Picks Obama to Win in 2012
By Paul Bedard , Lauren Fox
Posted: August 30, 2011 Print
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Allan Lichtman, the American University professor whose election formula has correctly called every president since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election, has a belated birthday present for Barack Obama: Rest easy, your re-election is in the bag.
“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” says Lichtman, the brains behind The Keys to the White House.
Lichtman’s prediction helps to explain a quirk in some polling that finds that while Americans disapprove of the president, they still think he will win re-election
(Excerpt) Read more at usnews.com ...
How was 2000 scored? If you look at every election since 1984 only one, 2000, was ever in any doubt.
what’s his justification? I am not clicking through to ussnooze website to give them traffic.
I can’t picture how this would be a conservative prediction. No one has been reelected with this bad a performance.
“Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.”
Proving the point that NOTHING is a scandal, is the media refuses to report on it.
‘92 looked like a Bush win this far out, he was still riding high from Desert Storm.
That was disproved in 2004.
Boy, this guy sure is going to be disappointed!
What a lame claim to fame. So have I.
Bush, Clinton, Clinton, Bush, Bush, Obama.
George W Bush's two wins were the only ones that were even difficult.
You had to be insane to think Dukakis, Dole or McCain had a shot.
They won’t . I do expect major hacking of computer voting systems. Another thing the. GOP never got under control. And a billion dollar war chest can buy a lot of hacking. I dont think he won in 2008.
I think Lichtman’s model is predicated on the old format MSM and it’s gate-keeping and issue-framing skills that favored libdems. There are more ways for information to get around those who carefully protect liberalism, and the viral nature cannot be impeded by Dan or Walter or Stan anymore.
I figure 17. IMHO:
California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, Vermont, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, Colorado.
Although he has the right to brag, I’d be far more impressed if his record included 1980 or an idea if his figures would have predicted 1980.
Its going to be that type of sea change election IMO...the repudiation of a specific person and political ideology a la Carter and the embracing of the candidate that best exemplifies what we want America to be again.
Correctomundo. This guy probably still hasn't heard of Fast and Furious.
Washington DC
The same with the Social Unrest Factor. No reporting of black flash mobs and union thugs running wild.
Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. Says Lichtman, “Even back in January 2010 when I first released my predictions, I was already counting on a significant loss.” Obama loses this key.
Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Says Lichtman on Obama’s unchallenged status, “I never thought there would be any serious contest against Barack Obama in the Democratic primary.” Obama wins this key. Wanna bet? I'll bet he IS challenged.
Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Easy win here for Obama.
Third Party: There is no significant third party challenge. Obama wins this point. Wanna bet?
Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Here Lichtman declares an “undecided.” Sound the bullshit alarm!
Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Says Lichtman, “I discounted long term economy against Obama. Clearly we are in a recession.” Obama loses this key.
Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. “There have been major policy changes in this administration. We’ve seen the biggest stimulus in history and an complete overhaul of the healthcare system so I gave him policy change,” says the scholar. Another win for Obama. A "win" only if said change was good and was popular, neither of which is true.
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Says Lichtman, “There wasn’t any social unrest when I made my predictions for 2012 and there still isn’t.” Obama wins a fifth key here. What do you call the flash mobs?
Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. “This administration has been squeaky clean. There’s nothing on scandal,” says Lichtman. Another Obama win. Squeaky clean my ass. Gunrunner anyone?
Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any major failure that resembles something like the Bay of Pigs and don’t foresee anything.” Obama wins again. Libya? Egypt?
Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. “Since Osama bin Laden was found and killed, I think Obama has achieved military success.” Obama wins his eighth key.
Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Explains Lichtman, “I did not give President Obama the incumbent charisma key. I counted it against him. He’s really led from behind. He didn’t really take the lead in the healthcare debate, he didn’t use his speaking ability to move the American people during the recession. He’s lost his ability to connect since the 2008 election.” Obama loses this key.
Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any candidate in the GOP who meets this criteria and probably won’t.” Obama wins, bringing his total to nine keys, three more than needed to win reelection.BS. I think there is at least one.
If you take MY numbers, he's at least one short of meeting this clown's criteria.
I was just thinking the other day that I hadn’t seen Lichtman in years. Alas, like Freddie Kruger he has returned.
If reading the threads on this site is any indicator, I am afraid he’s right. At the end of the day, the various GOP candidates’ camps will destroy each other.
Lichtman’s successful prediction history, interestingly enough, omits Reagan’s ‘80 win when the incumbent had problems similar to today’s incumbent.
The odds that all 16 coin flippers would be wrong in a 1 in 8 probability is (1-(1/8))^16 of about 11.8%. If you use a 1 in 16 probability, then that number rises to 35.6%.
Bush I really never had a serious challenge from Governor Doofus either, so you might put the guy's track record down to the only two closely contested elections in the cycle: 2000 and 2004. The odds of all 16 coin flippers getting everything wrong is then reduced to (1-(1/4))^16 or a whopping 1%.
True.
How much you want to bet he had Hilary at this point last election. How far before the election did he pick every one?
Pray for America
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