Posted on 08/28/2011 2:19:34 PM PDT by veritas3
The scale of Hurricane Irene, which could cause more extensive damage along the Eastern Seaboard than any storm in decades, is reviving an old question: are hurricanes getting worse because of human-induced climate change?
...But many of them do believe that hurricanes will get more intense as the planet warms, and they see large hurricanes like Irene as a harbinger.
While the number of the most intense storms has clearly been rising since the 1970s, researchers have come to differing conclusions about whether that increase can be attributed to human activities.
“On a longer time scale, I think — but not all of my colleagues agree — that the evidence for a connection between Atlantic hurricanes and global climate change is fairly compelling,” said Kerry Emanuel, an expert on the issue at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
HUM looks like they didn't study the history of recorded major Atlantic Hurricanes, starting from 1602. Seems for most of these years there was no Electric Plants, Autos, Excess Population, excess CO2 etc. Look over the Historic Hurricane 1609-1960 list below & tell your friends. How could these Historic Storms have happened? We need to ask the other expert...ALGORE to enlighten us; or The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); or United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP); or the University of East Anglia . Bet they have the scientific answers to this dilemma! After all they are a hell of a lot smarter about these things than we are!
• Tempest of 1609--At the time that the first ever colony in the United States was being developed, a strong hurricane menaced the Western Atlantic in the weeks following the departure of a fleet with 500 colonists left Great Britain for the New World. The ships then met with the maelstrom head on, and scattering all the vessels. Most were able to survive the onslaught of Mother Nature except for the flagship of the fleet, the Sea Venture, which was deposited in the infamous "Isle of Devils." Nevertheless, those who were on the ship still managed to reach shore, and received a much better fate than those, who had already situated themselves in the colony. The story of the Sea Venture was the basis of William Shakespeare's play, The Tempest. • Colonial Hurricane of 1635--Was a powerful New England hurricane that struck the Massachussetts Bay Colony in 1635 some fifteen years after the Mayflower struck land at Plymouth Rock. This storm had reminded many of the pilgrims and settlers of past hurricanes that struck in the West Indies or Caribbean. Many of the pilgrims believed that this storm was apocalyptic. • 1667--The Year Of The Hurricane--At a time when the Mid-Atlantic states of North Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland agreed to temporarily halt production of tobacco, a strong hurricane ripped through the Mid-Atlantic region on August 27th. While there was no recorded statistics such as where the storm made landfall, its track, and its forward speed and intensity. It destroyed 80 percent of the tobacco and corn while destroying some 15,000 homes in Virginia and Maryland. • Accomack Storm of October 1693--This storm was captured by Mr. Scarburgh at his residence in Virginia's Eastern Shore. Described by many weather record keepers as a very powerful storm, the Accomack Storm "cut inlets as far north as Fire Island, near New York City." • The Great Gust of 1724--According to Rick Schwartz's book, "Hurricanes and the Mid-Atlantic States," two hurricanes brought significant wind and rain to the Mid-Atlantic region in 1724. The first storm moved through the area around August 12th, and caused torrential rains and devastating winds. Less than a week later, another violent storm system came through on August 17th, 18th, and 19th with violent winds and rain. These two systems are among the most significant tropical storms to affect the Mid-Atlantic during the colonial period of the late 1600s and 1700s. • Hurricane of October, 1743--A storm that affected what would become the Northeastern United States and New England, brought gusty winds and rainy conditions as far as Philadelphia, and produced flooding in Boston. Central barometric pressure of the storm was measured to be 29.35 inches of Hg in Boston. This storm, which wasn't particularly powerful, was memorable because it garnered the interest of future patriot and one of the founders of the United States, Benjamin Franklin, who believed the storm was coming in from Boston. However, it was going to Boston. Nevertheless, it began the long educational journey, which would be our understanding of hurricanes. • Hurricane of October, 1749--The storm was perhaps one of the strongest storm ever in the Mid-Atlantic. According to Rick Schwartz, the hurricane produced a huge tidal surge of 15 feet. Based upon that observation, many experts believe that this system was a Category Four on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It was responsible for creating Willoughby Spit, a small area of land near Norfolk that was inside the Chesapeake Bay. • The Great Chesapeake Bay Hurricane of 1769--This hurricane plagued the Mid-Atlantic coast from North Carolina up into the Chesapeake over the two days of September 7-8, 1769, and was probably one of the strongest storms in the Mid-Atlantic during the 18th Century. It made landfall near New Bern, North Carolina, and laid that town in ruin as tides rose 12 feet above normal. Most notably, it caused widespread damage to the Stratford Hall plantation, which belonged to the family of famous confederate General Robert E. Lee. • The Independence Hurricane of 1775--With the winds of revolution blowing about in the fledgling 13 colonies, Mother Nature had a wind that temporarily put a halt to those rebellious thoughts. A hurricane roared up the East Coast, and triggered one of the early Revolutionary War skirmishes in the biggest colony of Virginia. It came close to impacting Georgia and South Carolina on September 2nd before moving ashore over North Carolina. The storm then picked up steam through Virginia, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. One of the more notable casualties of the storm was the roof of the Maryland State House, which was replaced by a wind resistant dome. • The Great Coastal Hurricane of 1785--Hurricanes that occur within weeks of each other usually take parallel tracks. The Atlantic Hurricane season of 1785 was a very busy one. One hurricane in early September of that year wrecked the ship called the Faithful Steward. Weeks later, another storm developed, and brushed the Delmarva Peninsula. The storm's legacy was the creation of the "long-sought" lighthouse at Cape Henry, which was opened seven years later in 1792. Lighthouses were essential in preventing shipwrecks like the Faithful Steward, and another immigrant ship guided by shipmaster, Captain Smith. • George Washington's Hurricane of 1788--This hurricane, which began its drive toward landfall after nearing Bermuda on July 19th, proceeded on a west-northwest course into the Outer Banks of North Carolina, and then into Virginia. The Chesapeake Bay region absorbed the worst that the storm had to offer. Most notably though, this storm is remembered for the way it was described by the father of the United States, and first president, George Washington. By the time the storm reached Washington's home in Mount Vernon, it was likely to have been a moderate tropical storm with winds about 50 mph. • Hurricanes of 1795--Two hurricanes assaulted Virginia in August 1795, and destroyed the crops of another hero of the American Revolution, Thomas Jefferson. The two storms, which were ten days apart, caused the Appomattox River to crest more than 12 feet above flood stage at the city of Petersburg, which was the highest level reached in 70 years. Jefferson, who kept a perfect record of regular weather observations for 40 years between 1776 and 1816, recorded the devastation that the two storms left behind, especially the heavy losses that he suffered at his plantation, the famous Monticello. • Great Coastal Hurricane of 1806--The first major hurricane of the 19th Century made landfall south of the city of Wilmington on the southern shores of North Carolina on August 21st, and then proceeded on a gradual northeasterly drift for about 250 miles over the subsequent 36 hours. Constant gale force winds produced tremendous beach erosion, and "firmly established" the sandbar of Willoughby Spit at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay near Norfolk. It was also responsible for the loss of the ship, Rose-in-Bloom, which founded near Barnegat, New Jersey. • Great September Gale of 1815--Was the last hurricane to strike New England before the Long Island Express of 1938. The storm struck on September 23, 1815, and brought an 11 foot storm surge to Providence, which was the highest storm surge in the Rhode Island captial prior to the Great Hurricane of 1938, which had a 17.6 foot storm surge. This storm was the first hurricane to strike New England in exactly 180 years. • Cape May Hurricane of 1821--The last major hurricane to make a direct landfall in the Garden State of New Jersey. This storm, which was a Category Four Hurricane, struck Cape May, New Jersey on September 3, 1821, and had hurricane force winds go as far west as Philadelphia while folks in New Jersey experienced wind gusts of up to 200 mph. The storm cut a path of destruction that is similar to that of the Garden State Parkway. More detailed information on this hurricane is at Greg Hoffman's Real Lousy Weather Page. • The Hurricane of 1846--Referred to as "The Great", used its northeast quadrant that caused havoc on the Delaware all the way up to Camden, New Jersey. This storm revealed the fact that Delaware Bay is open to southeast winds in the right quadrant, and water in the Bay would go upriver into cities such as Wilmington, Philadelphia, and Camden. • Hurricane of September, 1874--Struck the Carolinas around the end of September, 1874. This storm is remembered for being the first such hurricane to be shown on a weather map by the Weather Bureau. At the time it was shown, the hurricane was located off the Southeast Coast between Jacksonville, Florida and Savannah, Georgia. • Atlantic Hurricane of 1893--Was a strong Category One Hurricane that struck New York City with 90 mph winds on August 24th of that year. Barometric pressure was only 29.23 inches of Hg, but it leved some one hundred trees in Central Park. The beach and piers on Coney Island was devastated. However, it wasn't as bad as Hog Island, a sand spit off Rockaway Beach that was wiped off the map. • Sea Islands Hurricane of 1893--A major hurricane of Category Three strength that made landfall in Savannah, Georgia on August 27th, but its northeast quadrant hammered Sea Islands in Beaufort County, South Carolina. As a result, approximately 2,000 to 2,500 people were killed and upwards of 30,000 people were left homeless. • The "Hurricane" of 1903--The storm was indicated to be a hurricane by many in the media at the time, but it was in fact, a tropical storm with 70 mph winds along the coast. It was the first such tropical storm or hurricane to impact the Jersey shore in one hundred years. It was also called the "Vagabond Hurricane" since it caused such a stir in media outlets such as Philadelphia and New York, which had people covering the storm for the various newspapers in those cities. • Chesapeake Bay Hurricane of 1933--A powerful Cape Verde Storm that reached Category Four strength at one point before weakening to Category Two strength. The storm ended up striking on August 23, 1933 causing 79 million dollars in damage according to 1969 estimates, and left some 18 people dead. It also knocked out service to about 79,000 telephones as well as uprooted some 600 trees in Virginia Beach. The storm also set a record for storm surge with one that was 9.8 feet above normal in spots. • Major Hurricane of September, 1933--1933 was a very active year for tropical storms and hurricanes with 21 named storms, and 10 of them becoming hurricanes. In addition to the Great Chesapeake Hurricane of 1933, the Mid-Atlantic was hit by another hurricane almost exactly a month to the day later when a Category Three storm emerged from a disturbance in the Bahamas, and came up the coast to make landfall at Cape Lookout, North Carolina. The storm ended up causing about a fraction of the damage caused by the Chesapeake Bay storm. Only about 2,000 telephones were knocked out by the storm, and only two people died in Virginia. • Long Island Express of 1938--A classic east coast hurricane, this Category Three storm moved rapidly from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina into New England in a matter of just six hours killing 600 people. • Great Hurricane of September, 1944--Is perhaps a forgotten storm in light of the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, and the Long Island Express of 1938. However, this was a memorable storm in its own right. Cape Henry in Virginia was hit with sustained winds of 134 mph, and gusts up to 150 mph. Meanwhile, in Norfolk, winds reached close to hurricane force while gusts went up to 90 mph. The powerful storm caused tremendous damage along the coast from North Carolina to New England with some 41,000 buildings damaged, and a death toll of 390 people. The storm cost some $100 million dollars in damage including $25 million in New Jersey alone, where some 300 homes were destroyed on Long Beach Island. More detailed information on this hurricane is at Greg Hoffman's Real Lousy Weather Page. • Hurricane Hazel--A Category Four Hurricane that came ashore in North Carolina in October, 1954, and then brought hurricane force winds as far inland as Canada. Passing 95 miles to the East of Charleston, South Carolina, Hazel made landfall very near the North Carolina and South Carolina border, and brought a record 18 foot storm surge at Calabash, North Carolina. Wind gusts of 150 mph were felt in Holden Beach, Calabash, and Little River Inlet 100 mph gusts were felt farther inland at Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Delaware, New Jersey, and New York. Hazel carved a path of destruction that left over 600 dead, and damages exceeded $350 million 1953 U.S. dollars. • Hurricane Connie--Was the first of three hurricanes to make landfall in the Carolinas in 1955. Some ten months after Hazel devastated the Tar Heel state, Connie made landfall over Cape Lookout, North Carolina on August 12, 1955. The storm produced heavy rains, tornadoes, and wind gusts up to 100 mph. The storm headed northward, and brought heavy rains in excess of 9 inches in Eastern Pennsylvania, Delaware, and New Jersey while dumping over 12 inches in portions of New York City. • Hurricane Diane--First billion dollar hurricane. Made landfall along the Outer Banks of North Carolina, and caused havoc from the Carolinas to New England in August 1955. Just five days after Connie, Diane came ashore on August 17th over Carolina Beach. At its peak, Diane produced winds of 125 mph, but at landfall winds were down 50 mph in Cape Hatteras while Wilmington had a gust of minimal hurricane force. Its flooding rains proved more devastating as they killed two hundred while establishing a new benchmark for damage. The havoc wreaked by Diane brought out Presidential Commission on Storm Modification that eventually led to Project Stormfury. • Hurricane Ione--Struck a month after Connie and Diane in September, 1955. The storm struck just west of Atlantic Beach along the North Carolina coast. This was another storm that made landfall well after it had peaked in intensity with 125 mph winds and a minimum central pressure of 27.70 inches. Nevertheless, it brought 16 inches of rainfall to parts of the Tar Heel state, and left six dead as well as $90 million in damages before curving out to sea. • Hurricane Helene--Perhaps one of the most powerful hurricanes during the 1950s not to make landfall in the Carolinas although it came very close. Helene came within 20 miles of the coast at Cape Fear on September 27, 1958. Winds still reached 135 mph at Wilmington while Southport, North Carolina had winds sustained at 125 mph with gusts between 150 and 160 mph, and a minimum central pressure of 27.75 inches. • Hurricane Donna--Had a very erratic path in the summer of 1960 that started in the Caribbean, then went to the Florida Keys, then into the Gulf of Mexico, where it would make a turn to the north and make a second landfall over Florida at Fort Myers. It continued northeastward across the Florida Peninsula, and moved back out into the Atlantic near Daytona Beach. Not done yet, Donna headed up the East Coast, and made another landfall at Topsail Island, North Carolina. It then finished its trip by heading into New England, and a final landfall across Long Island. At its peak, Donna had wind gusts ranging between 175 and 200 mph, a minimum central pressure of 27.46 inches, and a 13 foot storm surge. Its total damage cost was over one billion 1960 United States dollars while Donna left 50 people dead.
HUM...MAYBE WE ARE SMARTER THAN THE EXPERTS!
It kind of like how the Ice Age ended as the climate changed. Just another one of those **** Happens things, IMHO.
The New York Times is pathetic at picking out Harbingers.....
Paragraphs are our friends.
That was yesterday - this is today - way more funner to read this drivel today:>)
(especially with big words like "Harbinger" *snicker*)
My eyes! My eyes! Good point, nonetheless - common sense trumps the so-called “experts” everytime.
Irene was a dud in NYC. Heh.
ALL weather is a harbinger of man caused global warming. Big storms, small storms, hurricanes of any size, snow, rain, drizzle, tornadoes, ice storms, flooding, earth quakes, are all signs of global warming caused by carbon dioxide emission by mankind.
If you do not believe this just ask Al Gore, or another group funded to prove that global warming is caused by mankind. They will also tell you that the End is Near. They number in the thousands.
Ok also posted here today: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2769951/posts
It is like Al Gore, who has become a caricature of himself!
Let’s be perfectly clear: if Irene is a flop, that means there is no man (white male) induced global warming, right?
Unexpected from the NY Slimes. /sarc
I think the movie “Idiocracy” was a Harbinger of 0bama - the president even used a teleprompter - a sign of dumbing-down in ‘06.
"... which could cause more ..." or of course it may not... This isn't news, it is pure speculation. Why don't they report on odds of any given NFL team winning the Superbowl this year.
...is reviving an old question: are hurricanes getting worse because of human-induced climate change?
That's not even a question until you prove that there is such a thing as "human-induced" climate change. Is the climate changing? Undoubtedly, and gosh I hope so. The Earth has always been a dynamic place. If/when it stops changing and stagnates, we are all in trouble.
Are humans influencing the change in climate? Maybe, maybe not. The science is anything but settled, in spite of what some hucksters would have us believe.
Much of what passes for "climate science" would never pass muster as real science in many other fields. Worse, we now know for a fact that a lot (in fact it looks like most) of the data supporting the "finding" of human-influenced climate change has been altered and/or cherry-picked to support a socio-political-power agenda rather than scientific discovery and knowledge.
Finally, no one has proven that a slightly warmer climate would be detrimental. Some studies indicate a warmer climate should result in fewer, less intense storms, longer growing seasons (particularly useful in areas where agriculture is not significantly aided by technology), and less fuel use for heating. These studies postulate a net benefit for humans from a slight climate warming.
I offer the following for your consideration.
I work for an insurance company in the U.S. I am not at liberty to disclose the company as the views presented here may not represent the company I work for. My duties include analyzing hurricanes and their impact on the U.S. I hold the CPCU and ChFC professional insurance designations.
I would recommend the following website for some very good historical information on hurricanes. It has data ranging from 1851-2010 on a number of different hurricane related topics. For any objective journalist worth their ink this should be the first reference site they go to.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/nws-nhc-6.pdf
The key phrase to note in any article about hurricanes, or anything else regarding climate change, is the following: “on record.” How far back do the records go?
For hurricanes, the best records we have begin 1851. When I teach people about this I ask the following question: Were there hurricanes prior to this? The obvious answer is yes. Do we know how strong they were? No. Any records prior to 1851 are pretty much guessing. But we do know there were hurricanes prior to 1851.
I also like to point out the advances in communications that have helped identify hurricanes and tropical storms.
1856 - telegraph
1905 - wireless telegraph for ships
1944 - aerial recon begins for hurricanes
1960 - TIROS weather satellite
1975 - GOES weather satellite (first permanent satellite for tracking tropical storms!)
As advances in technology have occured, the number of tropical storms being reported has increased. Gee, who would have thunk that? Obviously not Al Gore or the greenies.
Next, when measuring the impact of hurricanes, most journalists and greenies cite the cost. Cost, while important has nothing to do with global warming, climate change or whatever they are calling it this week.
The key measure you should focus on in millibars...the strenght of the hurricane. If you’ll read the article you will find some interesting stats on the strongest hurricanes to make landfall on the U.S.
Libs just hate it when I bring out these facts....they also hate that a conservative is using science to disprove their false claims!
I hope all are well.
Masterful weasel-wording. Is "the scale of Hurricane Irene" really trying to revive that discredited claim? Or is it a rabidly leftist propaganda sheet masquerading as a newspaper? Irene was a large, relatively weak hurricane. Isabel in 2003 was just as large and significantly stronger.
The killer question for the warmistas is this one: if global warming is caused by an increase in CO2, why isn't it getting warmer as CO2 levels continue to rise?
I LIKE IKE
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