Posted on 04/02/2011 4:49:48 PM PDT by Ooh-Ah
See Video from Greta Van Susteran's show! Bolton skeptical about Chinas economy
Just when you thought all Bolton could talk about was foreign policy, he does a great segment on Chinas economy vs our economy and debt.
To sum it up, Bolton really doesnt agree with Trump that we are getting ripped by China. Of course they are cheating and stealing from us in several ways, but he doesnt agree that Chinas economy will out grow the US economy in 10 to 15 years. In fact he believes that all these tales of Chinas super-growing economy could be greatly exaggerated.
He makes a lot of good points to substantiate this.
Impressive. I really hope he runs for president!
WOW...what a smart man...great SOS for Sarah Palin’s Administration....
But I think everyone here on FR has it right, China is in fact the Epitome of Communism, after all what do Leftist, Socialist, Commies all do?
They STEAL! they take what isn't theirs and use it to their own ends! China steals from us, just the way the Looting class steals from us. They cannot create they only steal, and when they cant steal no more they stagnate
ehh... Not really, what do you think the Abortion industry is all TRULY about?
Dang! He combed his hair nicely and trimmed his mustache.
Now if he could start wearing blue suits.
Homogenous?
LOL
There are 57 distinct ethnic minorities who yearn to for their autonomy to return.
The real number of Chinese are about 300 million.
China is a giant confederation of smaller territories and countries who want their independence.
The MBA schools turned out a bunch of leftist moles with no notion of business ethics and even less loyalty let alone patriotism regarding their own countrymen, that’s the inescapable conclusion I’ve reached.
Profit above all, they’d sell their own mother, and if it completely destroys the family, well, the more the merrier, family is archaic anyway. Same attitude toward country, they’re transnationals and have utter disdain for the people they’re impoverishing on the one hand, but hoping to sell their crap to on the other.
There are more problems afoot than just trade policy or rapacious unions or government taxation and regulation, in other words.
“To sum it up, Bolton really doesnt agree with Trump that we are getting ripped by China. Of course they are cheating and stealing from us in several ways, but he doesnt agree that Chinas economy will out grow the US economy in 10 to 15 years. “
I guess that’s why all those millions of products that we buy everyday are marked “Made in USA”.
Oh. Wait. Nevermind.
“I guess thats why all those millions of products that we buy everyday are marked Made in USA.
Oh. Wait. Nevermind.”
That’s the point - I’ve been watching their handiwork in raw goods for the past decade...be it oil, steel, wood, concrete. Anyone that cannot accept that they’re growing like mad is basically blind.
As to whether they overtake us...I guess we’ll find out. Just remember that they need a per-capita GDP of just 1/3 of ours to surpass us...and at 1/2 of ours we’re a has-been compared to them. And don’t forget that they already have 150 to 200 million people living at Western standards (in the cities, of course).
Maybe they will implode...and I guess we’ve chosen to base our existence on that event.
The number of real Americans is about 150 million.
The United States is a giant confederation of smaller territories and countries who want their independence, if the Federal Goverment isn't rolled back
Cirica 2020, there! Fixed it for you. ;)
China is aging fast, due to their one child policy which is now pretty much irreversible, and their environmental problems are huge. China is an environmental Cherynobl waiting to happen.
Give it ten years and see where it is.
It was sobering to alight from my plane at JFK, only to hear Ebonics and Spanish-speaking, bad-mannered, ill-kempt, TSA personnel. It was a jarring reminder to me that I have returned from a clean, polished, scrubbed country, full of polite citizens eager to learn English and pursue their capitalist dreams to acquire wealth and western material possessions, to a country tottering on the precipice of Socialism, ready to abandon all the capitalist principles that had made her great, and overrun by inferior genetic specimens, who have neither the desire nor the ability to compete in the global economy of the 21st Century.
Set against this backdrop of my first-hand experience, repeated verbatim after almost every trip to China in recent times, I wonder if this trend will be reversed.
“It was refreshing to visit a country in which people make a strenuous effort to learn and speak English, to the extent that some short-sighted local politicians (quoted by the SCMP) were bemoaning the lack of attention to Classical Chinese language amidst the mad dash to learn English in urban Chinese schools in cities like Beijing and Shanghai. “
The interesting cultural data you provide here has little or nothing to do with economic health. You can go to Japan and have the same experience of cleanliness, with polite people and efficient trains. But consider where Japan is economically right now. They are not a vibrant and growing economy by any stretch of the imagination.
You mention Socialism in America but ignore the fact that the Chinese system is based on Communism, relaxed though it may be now. There are still lots of poor people outside the gleaming cities, living in lousy conditions. The Communist system cannot create a healthy and vibrant economy, by its very nature. The growth stats and other indicators are lots of smoke and mirrors.
Word!
However, I do believe, that despite a lack of transparency in China's economic data, we can look at China's impact on the rest of the world to forsee the coming impact. And that is, what commodities are they buying, what products are they selling (i.e., are they ever increasing in technology), and how much foreign companies are affected by China.
And in all those categories, China does loom large. So, not sure how Bolton can question China's growth when, for example, General Motors now manufacture more automobiles in China than in the US. Or that China has single handedly affect global commodities prices, etc. Those aren't opaque data, but well known and well published data.
In the year 2000, the Chinese auto market was 2 million vs Japan's 6 million. By 2010, Chinese 18+ million and Japan under 5 million. These numbers cannot be made up when the largest number of automobiles sold in China come from foreign auto manufacturers in China.
So, again and in conclusion, all we need to do is look at China's impact on the world to see what road she is on.
My bet is that by 2020, China's nominal GDP will be larger than the US. And I'm not even talking about purchasing power parity (PPP), but market value GDP. In PPP, it'll occur even sooner. But I'll stick with nominal since PPP is controversial.
I agree. China’s being underestimated, especially with their steady infiltration of immigrants into resource-rich Russia, a nation whose ethnic Russian population is dying. I wouldn’t be surprised if, by the end of the century, China ends up buying the Eastern half of Russia. That would end a lot of raw-materials dependency.
I think a collapse of the USA would do short-term damage to China, but they would adapt.
Few economists use infrastructure as an arguement that China will soon surpass the US in GDP. However, I believe that is the cornerstone on why they will be larger than the US.
Consider this, China uses more cement than the rest of the world combined. Concrete it the building block of modern civilization, and China, more than any other country is on a building spree. China consumes roughly 1.6 billion tons/yr of cement vs number two India of 200 million tons/yr. And China will soon surpass 2 billion tons/yr.
This tells me that China is dead serious about infrastructure, energy, communications, transportation, etc. All necessary ingredients for a nation to improve its economic growth.
A GDP is a combination of all goods and services produced. What most people don't realize, is its mostly services, especially in a developed nation like the US. So while the US GDP is about $15 trillion, the total manufactured goods is about 11 or 12% of that, maybe $1.7 trillion or so.
What that means, is the other $13.3 trillion in the US GDP is made up of people paying their power bill, auto insurance, mortgage payments, vacations (i.e., stays at hotels, Disneyland etc.), getting a latte, eating out at restaurants, visits to the doctors office, auto repairs, playing golf on the weekends, etc. You get my point.
In essence, America's GDP is an indication of how mobile the average American is. And she able to move about, work, have fun, etc. because of the immense infrastructure that exist in this country which adds value.
China's manufacturing is well known, however, the mobility of the average Chinese is very limited compared to the averge American. But as she builds her infrastructure, the road ways, the power plants, the hotels, the resorts, the high speed rails, the airports, etc., the average Chinese becomes more and more mobile.
I'm convinced by 2040, the average Chinese will be able to fly from Beijing to London nearly as easily as the average American can fly from New York to Paris. And this will be because China is vigilante in building her infrastructure, which is no trivial matter.
And lets not forget the strengthening currency and China's manufacturing moveing up the value China. As she moves up the value chain, she can support the ever higher wages, which will be reflected in the GDP. In other words, the late night janitor in Shanghai who performs the same work as a late night janitor in New York, will increase his/her global market value simply because China's increase in value of manufactured goods will lift up the janitors purchasing power on the world stage.
I'm convinced, by 2040, China's GDP will be nearly 3 times larger than the US, if not more.
Be interesting to see what the global dynamics in year 2100 will look like :)
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