However, I do believe, that despite a lack of transparency in China's economic data, we can look at China's impact on the rest of the world to forsee the coming impact. And that is, what commodities are they buying, what products are they selling (i.e., are they ever increasing in technology), and how much foreign companies are affected by China.
And in all those categories, China does loom large. So, not sure how Bolton can question China's growth when, for example, General Motors now manufacture more automobiles in China than in the US. Or that China has single handedly affect global commodities prices, etc. Those aren't opaque data, but well known and well published data.
In the year 2000, the Chinese auto market was 2 million vs Japan's 6 million. By 2010, Chinese 18+ million and Japan under 5 million. These numbers cannot be made up when the largest number of automobiles sold in China come from foreign auto manufacturers in China.
So, again and in conclusion, all we need to do is look at China's impact on the world to see what road she is on.
My bet is that by 2020, China's nominal GDP will be larger than the US. And I'm not even talking about purchasing power parity (PPP), but market value GDP. In PPP, it'll occur even sooner. But I'll stick with nominal since PPP is controversial.
I agree. China’s being underestimated, especially with their steady infiltration of immigrants into resource-rich Russia, a nation whose ethnic Russian population is dying. I wouldn’t be surprised if, by the end of the century, China ends up buying the Eastern half of Russia. That would end a lot of raw-materials dependency.
I think a collapse of the USA would do short-term damage to China, but they would adapt.
Cheers!