Posted on 03/10/2011 7:48:47 AM PST by Iron Munro
High-speed trains that Gov. Rick Scott rejected would carry more passengers and operate at a greater financial surplus than projected in a 2009 federal application, data the state released Wednesday showed.
Figures averaged from findings by two independent consulting firms showed more than 3.3 million people would have ridden the Tampa-Orlando line in its first full year of operation in 2016, compared with a projection of 2.4 million in a previous study.
The latest reports the Florida Department of Transportation commissioned at a cost of $1.3 million indicate a $10.24 million surplus from high-speed rail operations in 2016, with ticket revenue of $60.8 million, $12.3 million more than predicted before.
Those ridership and revenue figures do not include the so-called "captive market" between Orlando International Airport, the Orange County Convention Center and Disney World, which would add another 4 million riders and $56.3 million in ticket revenue to 2016 operations.
The results of the new reports, and the fact the U.S. DOT has not re-allocated to other states $2.4 billion in federal money Scott has rejected, could mean Florida high-speed rail is not dead yet.
U.S. Sen Bill Nelson said LaHood is examining how to reapportion Florida's allocation among other states, while also looking at whether a consortium of cities along the Florida route would qualify to apply for it and manage the project rather than the state.
"I still have a sliver of hope that common sense and the facts will prevail," Nelson said following Wednesday's release of the new ridership data.
Scott had once indicated he would wait for the data by Steer Davies Gleave and Wilbur Smith Associates before making his decision on whether to accept the federal funds.
The new data was intended to update previous "investment grade" studies to provide guidance for investors in private rail bond issues and others interested in becoming involved in the project, including the state.
The governor's office in an e-mail Wednesday said Scott was "verbally briefed" on the highlights of the FDOT ridership study before his Feb. 16 rejection of the project.
"The Governor has said all along he believes ridership projections for this and other rail projects are overestimated," the e-mail from Amy Graham stated.
Scott has relied on reports by the libertarian Reason Foundation, which said in January that Florida could face project overruns up to $3 billion, and a February paper by the conservative think tank Heritage Foundation that concluded Obama's high-speed rail program would provide "mediocre passenger rail service to an extremely small fraction of travelers."
Critics challenged assumptions of both reports, which referred to historic appraisals of transportation projects in other countries, and noted that a Reason Foundation director who oversaw the report served on Scott's gubernatorial transition team.
On Tuesday, Scott told cheering Tea Party advocates at a Tallahassee rally: "Less government, lower taxes, no high speed rail."
Rail advocates said Scott is focusing on an anti-rail ideology rather than business and "fact-based" decisions.
U.S. Rep Kathy Castor, D-Tampa, said Wednesday that Scott "rushed to judgment" by rejecting the project.
"Now we see more evidence that shows just how profitable high-speed rail would have been."
The numbers from the new report aren't the only ones that support high-speed rail, Nelson said.
"With today's gas prices, a trip from Orlando to Tampa and back would use about 12 gallons of gas – and cost $47.88," he said. "A roundtrip train ticket would cost as low as $30."
Nelson said LaHood's decision on whether an agency representing Tampa, Lakeland, Orlando and Miami could take over the project is expected this week.
LaHood moved more quickly in December to redistribute $1.2 billion in federal money allocated to Wisconsin and Ohio, where newly-elected Republican governors had campaigned against high-speed rail.
Scott was reluctant during his gubernatorial campaign to support the Obama Administration's nationwide high-speed rail initiative that was to be launched in Florida and create up to 23,000 jobs, many in the construction industry where unemployment rates in Central Florida are near 20 percent.
After his election, Scott said he would consider the project after he reviewed the updated ridership and revenue figures and if the state did not have to invest the remaining $300 million to complete construction.
LaHood said Florida would not be liable for any cost shortfalls or overruns and private sector officials indicated they'd be willing to pitch in remaining construction funds.
What remains uncertain is whether LaHood will decide to force Florida to return $110 million in federal money it has spent on the project to date.
Every time career politicians and bureaucrats lose on an issue they manage to come up with a new consultant's report that backs their point of view.
Notice that the consultants were paid $1.3 million for these studies. Similar amounts were paid for previous consultant reports that projected lower ridership. But when politicians and bureaucrats don't like the projections they keep spending money on more studies and POOF!,like magic, each report is more favorable to their position.
Only when they get the report they like do they agree those are the real figures and they stop paying for more studies.
I call Barbara Streisand...........
Turn the project into a private IPO and see how many investors will dig deep.
Exactly.
Private investors line up when think something will be profitable. And stay away when they don’t.
They just can not let it go. They should build one to the state mental institution in Chattahoochee. The Chattahoochee Choo Choo.
Horse Hockey!
MORE GOVERNMENT LIES
funny how all this demand exists. it’ll continue to exist until the system becomes operational, then it will evaporate, as it always does. the models the ‘experts’ use are faulty, adn their predictions will not come true.
has there ever been a ridership prediction for any mass transit proposal that was anyway near the actual figure?
expect even more rosier predictions until they give up entirely.
If it will run a surplus every year like they claim, then some evil capitalist would have built it long ago.
If at first you don’t succeed, inflate the numbers until you do.
Private investors do Due Diligence. Government hacks do a study. This graphically demonstrates the difference between the two.
Usually these “analysis” ignore the capital construction costs.
That's the one possible area that a commuter rail service could make sense with the number of visitors/tourists in the area. But, if it's a great idea, private funding should be available.
Yup, that is why AMTRAC is making so much money - - - -
Oh wait. We have to subsidise that disaster with tax dollars.
"As low as," in other words, "at a minumum."
And you need one roundtrip ticket per person. How many people are driving from Tampa to Orlando and back with only one person in the car? How much are train tickets for your wife and three kids on your way to the Magic Kingdom? How does that compare to the price of gas even at $5 per gallon?
If they’re allowed to assume $7 a gallong gasoline, then I’m sure that will help their numbers, too.
Heck, why not assume the state stops issuing drivers licenses? That’ll increase ridership as well.
Its a huge money maker. Moral of the story if it can make money it will be built.
None. With a layout of $2.4 BILLION and an expected profit of $10.4 million, the rate of return is less than 0.5% annually. You would be a fool to sink that much money into it.
If High speed rail would make a profit they would be people lining up to bid on the private to invest in a private company.
Well lets see... The Libertarian group must be crazy, the conservative group must be completely nuts, but the two "independent consulting firms" are rock solid evidence of it being a highly profitable decision with no risk at all....
Interesting because high-speed rail just about anyplace on the planet runs at a HUGE FREAKING LOSS and requires massive Government subsidies to stay afloat.
But this one particular train will be different. Go figure.
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