The KeyHouseRaces Election Night Open Thread

KeyHouseRaces.com ^ | 2 November 2010 | Interceptpoint

[InterceptPoint]

Here is how our "Experts" did.

Rank	District		Seat	Democrat	Republican	Avg.	Experts	Winner	District
1	LA	3	Open D	Ravi Sangisetty	Jeff Landry	2.3	Likely R	WIN	LA	3
2	NY	29	Open D	Mathew Zeller	Tom Reed	2.3	Likely R	WIN	NY	29
3	TN	6	Open D	Brett Carter	Diane Black	2.3	Likely R	WIN	TN	6
4	AR	2	Open D	Joyce Elliott	Tim Griffin	2.2	Likely R	WIN	AR	2
5	KS	3	Open D	Stephene Moore	Kevin Yoder	2.2	Likely R	WIN	KS	3
6	TN	8	Open D	Roy Herron	Stephen Fincher	2.2	Likely R	WIN	TN	8
7	IL	11	Incumbent D	Debbie Halvorson	Adam Kinzinger	1.8	Likely R	WIN	IL	11
8	IN	8	Open D	W. Trent Van Haaften	Dr. Larry Bucshon	1.8	Likely R	WIN	IN	8
9	TX	17	Incumbent D	Chet Edwards	Bill Flores	1.8	Likely R	WIN	TX	17
10	FL	8	Incumbent D	Alan Grayson	Daniel Webster	1.7	Likely R	WIN	FL	8
11	OH	15	Incumbent D	Mary Jo Kilroy	Steve Stivers	1.7	Likely R	WIN	OH	15
12	FL	2	Incumbent D	Allen Boyd	Steve Southerland	1.5	Leans R	WIN	FL	2
13	FL	24	Incumbent D	Suzanne Kosmas	Sandy Adams	1.5	Leans R	WIN	FL	24
14	PA	3	Incumbent D	Kathleen Dahlkemper	Mike Kelly	1.5	Leans R	WIN	PA	3
15	WA	8	Incumbent R	Suzan DelBene	Dave Reichert	1.5	Leans R	WIN	WA	8
16	CO	4	Incumbent D	Betsy Markey	Cory Gardner	1.3	Leans R	WIN	CO	4
17	GA	8	Incumbent D	Jim Marshall	Austin Scott	1.3	Leans R	WIN	GA	8
18	MI	1	Open D	Gary McDowell	Dr. Daniel Benishek	1.3	Leans R	WIN	MI	1
19	NH	1	Incumbent D	Carol Shea-Porter	Frank Guinta	1.3	Leans R	WIN	NH	1
20	AZ	1	Incumbent D	Ann Kirkpatrick	Paul Gosar	1.2	Leans R	WIN	AZ	1
21	CA	3	Incumbent R	Ami Bera	Dan Lungren	1.2	Leans R	WIN	CA	3
22	FL	25	Open R	Joe Garcia	David Rivera	1.2	Leans R	WIN	FL	25
23	MD	1	Incumbent D	Frank Kratovil	Andy Harris	1.2	Leans R	WIN	MD	1
24	OH	1	Incumbent D	Steve Driehaus	Steve Chabot	1.2	Leans R	WIN	OH	1
25	WI	8	Incumbent D	Steve Kagen	Reid Ribble	1.2	Leans R	WIN	WI	8
26	NM	2	Incumbent D	Harry Teague	Steve Pearce	1.0	Leans R	WIN	NM	2
27	NV	3	Incumbent D	Dina Titus	Dr. Joe Heck	1.0	Leans R	WIN	NV	3
28	SC	5	Incumbent D	John Spratt Jr.	Mick Mulvaney	1.0	Leans R	WIN	SC	5
29	VA	2	Incumbent D	Glenn Nye	Scott Rigell	1.0	Leans R	WIN	VA	2
30	AR	1	Open D	Chad Causey	Rick Crawford	0.8	Leans R	WIN	AR	1
31	IN	9	Incumbent D	Baron Hill	Todd Young	0.8	Leans R	WIN	IN	9
32	VA	5	Incumbent D	Tom Perriello	Robert Hurt	0.8	Leans R	WIN	VA	5
33	WA	3	Open D	Denny Heck	Jaime Herrera	0.8	Leans R	WIN	WA	3
34	OH	16	Incumbent D	John Boccieri	Jim Renacci	0.7	Leans R	WIN	OH	16
35	WI	7	Open D	Julie Lassa	Sean Duffy	0.7	Leans R	WIN	WI	7
36	AZ	5	Incumbent D	Harold Mitchell	David Schweikert	0.5	Toss-Up	WIN	AZ	5
37	CA	11	Incumbent D	Jerry McNerney	David Harmer	0.5	Toss-Up		CA	11
38	CO	3	Incumbent D	John Salazar	Scott Tipton	0.5	Toss-Up	WIN	CO	3
39	IL	14	Incumbent D	Bill Foster	Randy Hultgren	0.5	Toss-Up	WIN	IL	14
40	MS	1	Incumbent D	Travis Childers	Alan Nunnelee	0.5	Toss-Up	WIN	MS	1
41	ND	AL	Incumbent D	Earl Pomeroy	Rick Berg	0.5	Toss-Up	WIN	ND	AL
42	NY	20	Incumbent D	Scott Murphy	Chris Gibson	0.5	Toss-Up	WIN	NY	20
43	NY	23	Incumbent D	Bill Owens	Matt Doheny	0.5	Toss-Up	WIN	NY	23
44	PA	7	Open D	Bryan Lentz	Pat Meehan	0.5	Toss-Up	WIN	PA	7
45	PA	8	Incumbent D	Patrick Murphy	Mike Fitzpatrick	0.5	Toss-Up	WIN	PA	8
46	PA	11	Incumbent D	Paul Kanjorski	Lou Barletta	0.5	Toss-Up	WIN	PA	11
47	SD	AL	Incumbent D	Stephanie Sandlin	Kristi Noem	0.5	Toss-Up	WIN	SD	AL
48	TX	23	Incumbent D	Ciro Rodriguez	Quico Canseco	0.5	Toss-Up	WIN	TX	23
49	HI	1	Incumbent R	Colleen Hanabusa	Charles Djou	0.3	Toss-Up	WIN	HI	1
50	FL	22	Incumbent D	Ron Klein	Allen West	0.3	Toss-Up	WIN	FL	22
51	GA	2	Incumbent D	Sanford Bishop	Mike Keown	0.3	Toss-Up	WIN	GA	2
52	IL	17	Incumbent D	Phil Hare	Bobby Schilling	0.3	Toss-Up	WIN	IL	17
53	MI	7	Incumbent D	Mark Schauer	Tim Walberg	0.3	Toss-Up	WIN	MI	7
54	NH	2	Open D	Annie Kuster	Charlie Bass	0.3	Toss-Up	WIN	NH	2
55	NJ	3	Incumbent D	John Adler	Jon Runyan	0.3	Toss-Up	WIN	NJ	3
56	NY	19	Incumbent D	John Hall	Nan Hayworth	0.3	Toss-Up	WIN	NY	19
57	OH	18	Incumbent D	Zach Space	Bob Gibbs	0.3	Toss-Up	WIN	OH	18
58	PA	10	Incumbent D	Chris Carney	Tom Marino	0.3	Toss-Up	WIN	PA	10
59	TN	4	Incumbent D	Lincoln Davis	Dr. Scott Desjarlais	0.3	Toss-Up	WIN	TN	4
60	WV	1	Open D	Mike Oliverio	David B. McKinley	0.3	Toss-Up	WIN	WV	1
61	AZ	8	Incumbent D	Gabrielle Giffords	Jesse Kelly	0.2	Toss-Up		AZ	8
62	NC	8	Incumbent D	Larry Kissell	Harold Johnson	0.2	Toss-Up	WIN	NC	8
63	MA	10	Open D	William Keating	Jeff Perry	0.0	Toss-Up	WIN	MA	10
64	OR	5	Incumbent D	Kurt Schrader	Scott Bruun	0.0	Toss-Up	WIN	OR	5
65	VA	9	Incumbent D	Rick Boucher	Morgan Griffith	0.0	Toss-Up	WIN	VA	9
66	CA	20	Incumbent D	Jim Costa	Andy Vidak	-0.2	Toss-Up		CA	20
67	ID	1	Incumbent D	Walter Minnick	Raul Labrador	-0.2	Toss-Up	WIN	ID	1
68	NM	1	Incumbent D	Martin Heinrich	Jon Barela	-0.2	Toss-Up		NM	1
69	IL	10	Open R	Dan Seals	Bob Dold	-0.3	Toss-Up	WIN	IL	10
70	MO	4	Incumbent D	Ike Skelton	Vicky Hartzler	-0.3	Toss-Up	WIN	MO	4
71	NY	24	Incumbent D	Mike Arcuri	Richard Hanna	-0.3	Toss-Up	WIN	NY	24
72	AL	2	Incumbent D	Bobby Bright	Martha Roby	-0.5	Toss-Up	WIN	AL	2
73	MS	4	Incumbent D	Gene Taylor	Steven Palazzo	-0.5	Toss-Up	WIN	MS	4
74	NY	1	Incumbent D	Tim Bishop	Randy Altschuler	-0.5	Toss-Up		NY	1
75	OH	6	Incumbent D	Charlie Wilson	Bill Johnson	-0.5	Toss-Up	WIN	OH	6
76	PA	12	Incumbent D	Mark Critz	Timothy Burns	-0.7	Leans D	WIN	PA	12
77	IN	2	Incumbent D	Joe Donnelly	Jackie Walorski	-0.7	Leans D	WIN	IN	2
78	KY	6	Incumbent D	Ben Chandler	Andy Barr	-0.7	Leans D		KY	6
79	VA	11	Incumbent D	Gerald Connolly	Keith Fimian	-0.7	Leans D		VA	11
80	WA	2	Incumbent D	Rick Larsen	John Koster	-0.7	Leans D		WA	2
81	AZ	7	Incumbent D	Raúl Grijalva	Ruth McClung	-0.8	Leans D		AZ	7
82	CT	4	Incumbent D	Jim Himes	Dan Debicella	-1.0	Leans D	WIN	CT	4
83	CT	5	Incumbent D	Christopher Murphy	Sam Caligiuri	-1.0	Leans D	WIN	CT	5
84	IA	3	Incumbent D	Leonard Boswell	Brad Zaun	-1.0	Leans D	WIN	IA	3
85	MI	9	Incumbent D	Gary Peters	"Rocky" Raczowski	-1.0	Leans D	WIN	MI	9
86	NC	2	Incumbent D	Bob Etheridge	Renee Ellmers	-1.0	Leans D	WIN	NC	2
87	CA	47	Incumbent D	Loretta Sanchez	Van Tran	-1.2	Leans D	WIN	CA	47
88	NC	7	Incumbent D	Mike McIntyre	Ilario Pantano	-1.2	Leans D	WIN	NC	7
89	NY	13	Incumbent D	Mike McMahon	Mike Grimm	-1.2	Leans D	WIN	NY	13
90	RI	1	Open D	David Cicilline	John Loughlin	-1.2	Leans D	WIN	RI	1
91	WI	3	Incumbent D	Ron Kind	Dan Kapanke	-1.2	Leans D	WIN	WI	3
92	CO	7	Incumbent D	Ed Perlmutter	Ryan Frazier	-1.3	Leans D	WIN	CO	7
93	IA	2	Incumbent D	Dave Loebsack	Marianneette Miller Meeks	-1.3	Leans D	WIN	IA	2
94	MN	1	Incumbent D	Tim Walz	Randy Demmer	-1.3	Leans D	WIN	MN	1
95	MN	8	Incumbent D	Jim Oberstar	Chip Cravaack	-1.3	Leans D	WIN	MN	8
96	TX	27	Incumbent D	Solomon Ortiz	R. Blake Farenthold	-1.3	Leans D	WIN	TX	27
97	DE	AL	Open R	John Carney	Glen Urquhart	-1.5	Leans D	WIN	DE	AL
98	IA	1	Incumbent D	Bruce Braley	Ben Lange	-1.5	Leans D	WIN	IA	1
99	LA	2	Incumbent R	Cedric Richmond	Joseph Cao	-1.5	Leans D	WIN	LA	2
100	ME	1	Incumbent D	Chellie Pingree	Dean Scontras	-1.5	Leans D	WIN	ME	1
101	MO	3	Incumbent D	Russ Carnahan	Ed Martin	-1.5	Leans D	WIN	MO	3
102	NC	11	Incumbent D	Heath Shuler	Jeff Miller	-1.5	Leans D	WIN	NC	4
103	NY	25	Incumbent D	Dan Maffei	Ann Marie Buerkle	-1.5	Leans D		NY	25
104	PA	4	Incumbent D	Jason Altmire	Keith Rothfus	-1.7	Likely D	WIN	PA	4
105	MA	4	Incumbent D	Barney Frank	Sean Bielat	-1.8	Likely D	WIN	MA	4
106	NY	22	Incumbent D	Maurice Hinchey	George Phillips	-1.8	Likely D	WIN	NY	22
107	OH	13	Incumbent D	Betty Sutton	Tom Ganley	-1.8	Likely D	WIN	OH	13
108	ME	2	Incumbent D	Mike Michaud	Jason Levesque	-2.0	Likely D	WIN	ME	2
109	WV	3	Incumbent D	Nick Rahall	"Spike" Maynard	-2.0	Likely D	WIN	WV	3
110	PA	17	Incumbent D	Tim Holden	David Argall	-2.2	Likely D	WIN	PA	17
111	IL	8	Incumbent D	Melissa Bean	Joe Walsh	-2.3	Likely D		IL	8
112	UT	2	Incumbent D	Jim Matheson	Morgan Philpot	-2.3	Likely D		UT	2

[randita]

GOP took all but one of those averaging .5 or higher and the only one they lost so far, NY-23, was probably as a result of a split conservative vote. A unified GOP would probably have resulted in a win there. The NY GOP is often derided, but they really helped their cause by working hard to prevent primary battles on most of the competitive districts, but they were unable to do that in NY-23 and one or two others.

CA-11, also rated .5 has not been called.

So if there’s one rule of thumb regarding your methodology this year, candidates with an average of .5 go GOP. Only 1 out of 48 meeting that criteria so far and depending on CA-11, only 2 out of 48 (or 1 out of 49) do not.

Even in races with an average of 0.0-0.3, the GOP had a substantial advantage which would be expected.

Once all the races have been called, we’ll have to figure out what % of races the GOP won which had an average in positive territory. I would be interesting in seeing .5 or 1 point increment breakdowns.

It’s interesting than the races at the top of the chart were +2.3 and the ones at the bottom were -2.3.

[Eleutheria5]

“Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s defeat of tea party favorite Sharron Angle, a former state legislator who had unusual positions and made a number of stumbles in her campaign, was a major symbolic victory. Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) captured the mood when he compared Reid to Dracula and Lazarus. “He’s unbreakable and unbeatable,” Kerry said in a statement.”

Funny he should mention Dracula first.

[randita]

Update from NRCC:

http://www.nrcc.org/live-twitter-update/

#GOP has netted 61 seats, & the following races are too close to call: #AZ07 #AZ08 #CA11 #CA20 #KY06 #IL08 #VA11 #WA02 #NY25 #TX27

[randita]

Reid looked and sounded weak in his acceptance speech. I wonder if he has the stamina and will to survive a challenge from a NY snake like Schumer.

[Eleutheria5]

Death-match of the Celebrities images flash before my eyes.

[Impy]

CT 5 is lost by 8 points.

The 2 AZ seats look rat.

It looks we’ll have CA-20 by a hair.

CA-11 is tighter than a witch’s uh nose. That should have been an easy win. Guess that seat on the outskirts of the bay area is trending left.

WA-02 will be while with the mail in votes, just like the Senate race. I’m hopeful.

Rat is ahead in KY-06 and VA-11 by recount margins.

I don’t think the rats can overturn IL-8.

NY-25 looks rat but still votes out I think.

I don’t know what the hell is going on in Connecticut. It looks like some vote in still outstanding. The rat was crowned Governor EARLY but I guess they took it back, it’s now tight will the Republican up.

In CT Himes is the projected winner and the Pub conceded but Himes apparently trails with vote sill outstanding.

CNN has Texas-27 uncalled so it’s not reflected in their 239 Republicans so far. We won by a few hundred there.

Don’t know if Fox differs, their website is not working properly for me.

Total GOP # I guess will be around 244 when it’s all over.

[gleeaikin]

Having listened to todays victory speeches, it seems this election shows the people have the goal that government should creat jobs and save money. Somehow, these two goals seem mutually exclusive.

[NYRepublican72]

NY-25 switched back to the Pubbie.

[randita]

Message from Harmer:

Limbo. That’s where we find ourselves.

As the votes were counted last night, we quickly jumped to a 3% lead and held it for most of the evening. As the number of precincts reporting increased, our lead gradually decreased, but we maintained it all through the night. As of 4:09 a.m. Pacific time, with 99% of the precincts reporting, we led by 23 votes (Harmer 81,762; McNerney 81,739).

Then, in the “preliminary final count,” the incumbent suddenly jumped ahead (McNerney 82,124; Harmer 82,003).

If that sounds suspicious, it is. We have reason for serious concern about the integrity of the count and the security of the ballots in some areas. And many absentee and provisional ballots remain to be counted.

We insist that every legally-cast ballot be accurately and properly counted. Getting that done is going to be a battle. We may not know the result for days.

We urgently need additional observers to monitor the counting. If you can volunteer, call or come in to headquarters immediately.

Meanwhile ... you have no idea how much I hate to say this, but the campaign didn’t end when the polls closed last night, and our hard-working staff needs to stay on the job. We’ve exhausted the campaign treasury. Now we need to replenish it. If you can contribute, please do.

We’ll keep you posted.

Yours truly,

David Harmer

[TexasNative2000]

IP - now that the election is does, I wanted to thank you for your work on this thread. I spent most of last night on this thread, the KHR.com website, and the NYTimes Election Coverage website.

Between the three of those sources, I stayed ahead of network coverage by about 15 minutes. Thanks again for some great work.

[lowtaxsmallgov]

Ditto that. Thanks IP, that was truly great work.

I’m hoping that we’re all looking forward to 2012 to beat the crap out of the leftists even harder next time.

[Arthur Wildfire! March]

No worries. Our message is understood despite the spin.