Rank | District | Seat | Democrat | Republican | Avg. | Experts | Winner | District | ||
1 | LA | 3 | Open D | Ravi Sangisetty | Jeff Landry | 2.3 | Likely R | WIN | LA | 3 |
2 | NY | 29 | Open D | Mathew Zeller | Tom Reed | 2.3 | Likely R | WIN | NY | 29 |
3 | TN | 6 | Open D | Brett Carter | Diane Black | 2.3 | Likely R | WIN | TN | 6 |
4 | AR | 2 | Open D | Joyce Elliott | Tim Griffin | 2.2 | Likely R | WIN | AR | 2 |
5 | KS | 3 | Open D | Stephene Moore | Kevin Yoder | 2.2 | Likely R | WIN | KS | 3 |
6 | TN | 8 | Open D | Roy Herron | Stephen Fincher | 2.2 | Likely R | WIN | TN | 8 |
7 | IL | 11 | Incumbent D | Debbie Halvorson | Adam Kinzinger | 1.8 | Likely R | WIN | IL | 11 |
8 | IN | 8 | Open D | W. Trent Van Haaften | Dr. Larry Bucshon | 1.8 | Likely R | WIN | IN | 8 |
9 | TX | 17 | Incumbent D | Chet Edwards | Bill Flores | 1.8 | Likely R | WIN | TX | 17 |
10 | FL | 8 | Incumbent D | Alan Grayson | Daniel Webster | 1.7 | Likely R | WIN | FL | 8 |
11 | OH | 15 | Incumbent D | Mary Jo Kilroy | Steve Stivers | 1.7 | Likely R | WIN | OH | 15 |
12 | FL | 2 | Incumbent D | Allen Boyd | Steve Southerland | 1.5 | Leans R | WIN | FL | 2 |
13 | FL | 24 | Incumbent D | Suzanne Kosmas | Sandy Adams | 1.5 | Leans R | WIN | FL | 24 |
14 | PA | 3 | Incumbent D | Kathleen Dahlkemper | Mike Kelly | 1.5 | Leans R | WIN | PA | 3 |
15 | WA | 8 | Incumbent R | Suzan DelBene | Dave Reichert | 1.5 | Leans R | WIN | WA | 8 |
16 | CO | 4 | Incumbent D | Betsy Markey | Cory Gardner | 1.3 | Leans R | WIN | CO | 4 |
17 | GA | 8 | Incumbent D | Jim Marshall | Austin Scott | 1.3 | Leans R | WIN | GA | 8 |
18 | MI | 1 | Open D | Gary McDowell | Dr. Daniel Benishek | 1.3 | Leans R | WIN | MI | 1 |
19 | NH | 1 | Incumbent D | Carol Shea-Porter | Frank Guinta | 1.3 | Leans R | WIN | NH | 1 |
20 | AZ | 1 | Incumbent D | Ann Kirkpatrick | Paul Gosar | 1.2 | Leans R | WIN | AZ | 1 |
21 | CA | 3 | Incumbent R | Ami Bera | Dan Lungren | 1.2 | Leans R | WIN | CA | 3 |
22 | FL | 25 | Open R | Joe Garcia | David Rivera | 1.2 | Leans R | WIN | FL | 25 |
23 | MD | 1 | Incumbent D | Frank Kratovil | Andy Harris | 1.2 | Leans R | WIN | MD | 1 |
24 | OH | 1 | Incumbent D | Steve Driehaus | Steve Chabot | 1.2 | Leans R | WIN | OH | 1 |
25 | WI | 8 | Incumbent D | Steve Kagen | Reid Ribble | 1.2 | Leans R | WIN | WI | 8 |
26 | NM | 2 | Incumbent D | Harry Teague | Steve Pearce | 1.0 | Leans R | WIN | NM | 2 |
27 | NV | 3 | Incumbent D | Dina Titus | Dr. Joe Heck | 1.0 | Leans R | WIN | NV | 3 |
28 | SC | 5 | Incumbent D | John Spratt Jr. | Mick Mulvaney | 1.0 | Leans R | WIN | SC | 5 |
29 | VA | 2 | Incumbent D | Glenn Nye | Scott Rigell | 1.0 | Leans R | WIN | VA | 2 |
30 | AR | 1 | Open D | Chad Causey | Rick Crawford | 0.8 | Leans R | WIN | AR | 1 |
31 | IN | 9 | Incumbent D | Baron Hill | Todd Young | 0.8 | Leans R | WIN | IN | 9 |
32 | VA | 5 | Incumbent D | Tom Perriello | Robert Hurt | 0.8 | Leans R | WIN | VA | 5 |
33 | WA | 3 | Open D | Denny Heck | Jaime Herrera | 0.8 | Leans R | WIN | WA | 3 |
34 | OH | 16 | Incumbent D | John Boccieri | Jim Renacci | 0.7 | Leans R | WIN | OH | 16 |
35 | WI | 7 | Open D | Julie Lassa | Sean Duffy | 0.7 | Leans R | WIN | WI | 7 |
36 | AZ | 5 | Incumbent D | Harold Mitchell | David Schweikert | 0.5 | Toss-Up | WIN | AZ | 5 |
37 | CA | 11 | Incumbent D | Jerry McNerney | David Harmer | 0.5 | Toss-Up | CA | 11 | |
38 | CO | 3 | Incumbent D | John Salazar | Scott Tipton | 0.5 | Toss-Up | WIN | CO | 3 |
39 | IL | 14 | Incumbent D | Bill Foster | Randy Hultgren | 0.5 | Toss-Up | WIN | IL | 14 |
40 | MS | 1 | Incumbent D | Travis Childers | Alan Nunnelee | 0.5 | Toss-Up | WIN | MS | 1 |
41 | ND | AL | Incumbent D | Earl Pomeroy | Rick Berg | 0.5 | Toss-Up | WIN | ND | AL |
42 | NY | 20 | Incumbent D | Scott Murphy | Chris Gibson | 0.5 | Toss-Up | WIN | NY | 20 |
43 | NY | 23 | Incumbent D | Bill Owens | Matt Doheny | 0.5 | Toss-Up | WIN | NY | 23 |
44 | PA | 7 | Open D | Bryan Lentz | Pat Meehan | 0.5 | Toss-Up | WIN | PA | 7 |
45 | PA | 8 | Incumbent D | Patrick Murphy | Mike Fitzpatrick | 0.5 | Toss-Up | WIN | PA | 8 |
46 | PA | 11 | Incumbent D | Paul Kanjorski | Lou Barletta | 0.5 | Toss-Up | WIN | PA | 11 |
47 | SD | AL | Incumbent D | Stephanie Sandlin | Kristi Noem | 0.5 | Toss-Up | WIN | SD | AL |
48 | TX | 23 | Incumbent D | Ciro Rodriguez | Quico Canseco | 0.5 | Toss-Up | WIN | TX | 23 |
49 | HI | 1 | Incumbent R | Colleen Hanabusa | Charles Djou | 0.3 | Toss-Up | WIN | HI | 1 |
50 | FL | 22 | Incumbent D | Ron Klein | Allen West | 0.3 | Toss-Up | WIN | FL | 22 |
51 | GA | 2 | Incumbent D | Sanford Bishop | Mike Keown | 0.3 | Toss-Up | WIN | GA | 2 |
52 | IL | 17 | Incumbent D | Phil Hare | Bobby Schilling | 0.3 | Toss-Up | WIN | IL | 17 |
53 | MI | 7 | Incumbent D | Mark Schauer | Tim Walberg | 0.3 | Toss-Up | WIN | MI | 7 |
54 | NH | 2 | Open D | Annie Kuster | Charlie Bass | 0.3 | Toss-Up | WIN | NH | 2 |
55 | NJ | 3 | Incumbent D | John Adler | Jon Runyan | 0.3 | Toss-Up | WIN | NJ | 3 |
56 | NY | 19 | Incumbent D | John Hall | Nan Hayworth | 0.3 | Toss-Up | WIN | NY | 19 |
57 | OH | 18 | Incumbent D | Zach Space | Bob Gibbs | 0.3 | Toss-Up | WIN | OH | 18 |
58 | PA | 10 | Incumbent D | Chris Carney | Tom Marino | 0.3 | Toss-Up | WIN | PA | 10 |
59 | TN | 4 | Incumbent D | Lincoln Davis | Dr. Scott Desjarlais | 0.3 | Toss-Up | WIN | TN | 4 |
60 | WV | 1 | Open D | Mike Oliverio | David B. McKinley | 0.3 | Toss-Up | WIN | WV | 1 |
61 | AZ | 8 | Incumbent D | Gabrielle Giffords | Jesse Kelly | 0.2 | Toss-Up | AZ | 8 | |
62 | NC | 8 | Incumbent D | Larry Kissell | Harold Johnson | 0.2 | Toss-Up | WIN | NC | 8 |
63 | MA | 10 | Open D | William Keating | Jeff Perry | 0.0 | Toss-Up | WIN | MA | 10 |
64 | OR | 5 | Incumbent D | Kurt Schrader | Scott Bruun | 0.0 | Toss-Up | WIN | OR | 5 |
65 | VA | 9 | Incumbent D | Rick Boucher | Morgan Griffith | 0.0 | Toss-Up | WIN | VA | 9 |
66 | CA | 20 | Incumbent D | Jim Costa | Andy Vidak | -0.2 | Toss-Up | CA | 20 | |
67 | ID | 1 | Incumbent D | Walter Minnick | Raul Labrador | -0.2 | Toss-Up | WIN | ID | 1 |
68 | NM | 1 | Incumbent D | Martin Heinrich | Jon Barela | -0.2 | Toss-Up | NM | 1 | |
69 | IL | 10 | Open R | Dan Seals | Bob Dold | -0.3 | Toss-Up | WIN | IL | 10 |
70 | MO | 4 | Incumbent D | Ike Skelton | Vicky Hartzler | -0.3 | Toss-Up | WIN | MO | 4 |
71 | NY | 24 | Incumbent D | Mike Arcuri | Richard Hanna | -0.3 | Toss-Up | WIN | NY | 24 |
72 | AL | 2 | Incumbent D | Bobby Bright | Martha Roby | -0.5 | Toss-Up | WIN | AL | 2 |
73 | MS | 4 | Incumbent D | Gene Taylor | Steven Palazzo | -0.5 | Toss-Up | WIN | MS | 4 |
74 | NY | 1 | Incumbent D | Tim Bishop | Randy Altschuler | -0.5 | Toss-Up | NY | 1 | |
75 | OH | 6 | Incumbent D | Charlie Wilson | Bill Johnson | -0.5 | Toss-Up | WIN | OH | 6 |
76 | PA | 12 | Incumbent D | Mark Critz | Timothy Burns | -0.7 | Leans D | WIN | PA | 12 |
77 | IN | 2 | Incumbent D | Joe Donnelly | Jackie Walorski | -0.7 | Leans D | WIN | IN | 2 |
78 | KY | 6 | Incumbent D | Ben Chandler | Andy Barr | -0.7 | Leans D | KY | 6 | |
79 | VA | 11 | Incumbent D | Gerald Connolly | Keith Fimian | -0.7 | Leans D | VA | 11 | |
80 | WA | 2 | Incumbent D | Rick Larsen | John Koster | -0.7 | Leans D | WA | 2 | |
81 | AZ | 7 | Incumbent D | Raúl Grijalva | Ruth McClung | -0.8 | Leans D | AZ | 7 | |
82 | CT | 4 | Incumbent D | Jim Himes | Dan Debicella | -1.0 | Leans D | WIN | CT | 4 |
83 | CT | 5 | Incumbent D | Christopher Murphy | Sam Caligiuri | -1.0 | Leans D | WIN | CT | 5 |
84 | IA | 3 | Incumbent D | Leonard Boswell | Brad Zaun | -1.0 | Leans D | WIN | IA | 3 |
85 | MI | 9 | Incumbent D | Gary Peters | "Rocky" Raczowski | -1.0 | Leans D | WIN | MI | 9 |
86 | NC | 2 | Incumbent D | Bob Etheridge | Renee Ellmers | -1.0 | Leans D | WIN | NC | 2 |
87 | CA | 47 | Incumbent D | Loretta Sanchez | Van Tran | -1.2 | Leans D | WIN | CA | 47 |
88 | NC | 7 | Incumbent D | Mike McIntyre | Ilario Pantano | -1.2 | Leans D | WIN | NC | 7 |
89 | NY | 13 | Incumbent D | Mike McMahon | Mike Grimm | -1.2 | Leans D | WIN | NY | 13 |
90 | RI | 1 | Open D | David Cicilline | John Loughlin | -1.2 | Leans D | WIN | RI | 1 |
91 | WI | 3 | Incumbent D | Ron Kind | Dan Kapanke | -1.2 | Leans D | WIN | WI | 3 |
92 | CO | 7 | Incumbent D | Ed Perlmutter | Ryan Frazier | -1.3 | Leans D | WIN | CO | 7 |
93 | IA | 2 | Incumbent D | Dave Loebsack | Marianneette Miller Meeks | -1.3 | Leans D | WIN | IA | 2 |
94 | MN | 1 | Incumbent D | Tim Walz | Randy Demmer | -1.3 | Leans D | WIN | MN | 1 |
95 | MN | 8 | Incumbent D | Jim Oberstar | Chip Cravaack | -1.3 | Leans D | WIN | MN | 8 |
96 | TX | 27 | Incumbent D | Solomon Ortiz | R. Blake Farenthold | -1.3 | Leans D | WIN | TX | 27 |
97 | DE | AL | Open R | John Carney | Glen Urquhart | -1.5 | Leans D | WIN | DE | AL |
98 | IA | 1 | Incumbent D | Bruce Braley | Ben Lange | -1.5 | Leans D | WIN | IA | 1 |
99 | LA | 2 | Incumbent R | Cedric Richmond | Joseph Cao | -1.5 | Leans D | WIN | LA | 2 |
100 | ME | 1 | Incumbent D | Chellie Pingree | Dean Scontras | -1.5 | Leans D | WIN | ME | 1 |
101 | MO | 3 | Incumbent D | Russ Carnahan | Ed Martin | -1.5 | Leans D | WIN | MO | 3 |
102 | NC | 11 | Incumbent D | Heath Shuler | Jeff Miller | -1.5 | Leans D | WIN | NC | 4 |
103 | NY | 25 | Incumbent D | Dan Maffei | Ann Marie Buerkle | -1.5 | Leans D | NY | 25 | |
104 | PA | 4 | Incumbent D | Jason Altmire | Keith Rothfus | -1.7 | Likely D | WIN | PA | 4 |
105 | MA | 4 | Incumbent D | Barney Frank | Sean Bielat | -1.8 | Likely D | WIN | MA | 4 |
106 | NY | 22 | Incumbent D | Maurice Hinchey | George Phillips | -1.8 | Likely D | WIN | NY | 22 |
107 | OH | 13 | Incumbent D | Betty Sutton | Tom Ganley | -1.8 | Likely D | WIN | OH | 13 |
108 | ME | 2 | Incumbent D | Mike Michaud | Jason Levesque | -2.0 | Likely D | WIN | ME | 2 |
109 | WV | 3 | Incumbent D | Nick Rahall | "Spike" Maynard | -2.0 | Likely D | WIN | WV | 3 |
110 | PA | 17 | Incumbent D | Tim Holden | David Argall | -2.2 | Likely D | WIN | PA | 17 |
111 | IL | 8 | Incumbent D | Melissa Bean | Joe Walsh | -2.3 | Likely D | IL | 8 | |
112 | UT | 2 | Incumbent D | Jim Matheson | Morgan Philpot | -2.3 | Likely D | UT | 2 |
GOP took all but one of those averaging .5 or higher and the only one they lost so far, NY-23, was probably as a result of a split conservative vote. A unified GOP would probably have resulted in a win there. The NY GOP is often derided, but they really helped their cause by working hard to prevent primary battles on most of the competitive districts, but they were unable to do that in NY-23 and one or two others.
CA-11, also rated .5 has not been called.
So if there’s one rule of thumb regarding your methodology this year, candidates with an average of .5 go GOP. Only 1 out of 48 meeting that criteria so far and depending on CA-11, only 2 out of 48 (or 1 out of 49) do not.
Even in races with an average of 0.0-0.3, the GOP had a substantial advantage which would be expected.
Once all the races have been called, we’ll have to figure out what % of races the GOP won which had an average in positive territory. I would be interesting in seeing .5 or 1 point increment breakdowns.
It’s interesting than the races at the top of the chart were +2.3 and the ones at the bottom were -2.3.
Update from NRCC:
http://www.nrcc.org/live-twitter-update/
#GOP has netted 61 seats, & the following races are too close to call: #AZ07 #AZ08 #CA11 #CA20 #KY06 #IL08 #VA11 #WA02 #NY25 #TX27