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Posted on 11/02/2010 4:51:20 AM PDT by Maceman
While our forecast and a good deal of polling data suggest that the Republicans may win the House of Representatives on Tuesday, perhaps all is not lost for the Democrats. Here’s one possible scenario for how things might not end up as expected.
It was hard to pinpoint exactly when in the night things started to go wrong. But at some point, a trash can was knocked over in John A. Boehner’s office in the Longworth House Office Building. A half-hour later, a hole was punched in the wall at the Republican National Committee’s headquarters.
Republicans didn’t really have much reason to be upset. They were going to pick up somewhere between 29 and 34 House seats from Democrats, pending the outcome of a recount or two and the receipt of mail ballots in some Western states. They gained five Senate seats from Democrats, and won the governorships in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Florida, among many other states. It had been a wave election, indeed — but a wave on the magnitude of 2006, rather than 1994.
. . .
1. The cellphone effect. This one is pretty simple, really: a lot of American adults (now about one-quarter of them) have ditched landlines and rely exclusively on mobile phones, and a lot of pollsters don’t call mobile phones.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...
I see Nate Sliver is is trying his hand at erotic fiction.
That was my point. I was listening to NPR. They seem to think that 120% of Democrats will vote this year. So, when Harry Reid wins by 10 or 15 million votes, you can be sure it’s not “fraud”, it’s just “enthusiasm”.
But, if you read the article, that's exactly his point. He is trying to identify all the straws that Democrats want to grasp -- and then effectively destroys them.
His conclusion is that the Republicans are most likely take control of the House by a significant margin. But, he points out that a huge blowout (70+ seats switch to Republican) is unlikely, and that the Democrats holding on to control of the House is just as unlikely.
If this were a radio report instead of print, you would have heard the heels clicking together as he spoke...
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover they can vote themselves largess from the public treasury.”
Once the people learned that we could vote in people that would just give us what we want...it was over. Although we are not a “democracy” it still applies.
http://www.wrisley.com/cycle.htm
one reason only........ fraud
Not inconceivable. In Philly and Chicago, Democrats have long backed voting rights for necro-Americans.
My grandma likes to joke that my grandfather voted Democrat for the first time in 40 years in 2004, because he: (1) lived in Philadelphia; and (2) was recently deceased.
“I was listening to NPR”
Ahhh, National PUBIC Radio...I forgot that they were still in business.
Problem is the cellphone effect has yet to materialize in any real way. Also given that some polls do poll cellphones and the largest number of sole cell phone users are youth the effect is minimal. In a tight race it may manifest in a point or two difference but I dont see it making or breaking many races.
1. ACORN
2. Dead voters
3. Illegal voters
4. Trashed absentee ballots from our military
5. Recounting the votes until they win
True, but his “reasoning-wishful thinking” has motivated me this morning. It makes some sense but not in the way he thinks it does. With party affiliation and independent numbers all screwed up, throw in his cell phone theory and this will be a great day for America.
I wonder if a tingle is going down his buddy Chrissy Matthew's leg reading that obvious piece of fiction?
Nate Silver makes a good case against presuming GOP hubris today. The Democrats could overperform despite everything the polls are saying and narrowly hold onto the House.
I don9;;t think it will happen tonight but we shouldn’t be shocked if despite all the negative headwinds they’re facing, the Democrats somehow manage to hang on to control of the House.
Conservatives should not be overconfident and think they have the election in the bag. Unless every one goes out and votes - a Democratic comeback could be the surprise of this 2010 election.
‘
My theory is a bit simpler. Nate is a commy loving anti-american bigot who has doubled down on this country going into the crapper.
Nate should join his journalista buddies in hell.
Fraud will not work unless the margins are razor thin and there aren’t very many races of this type.
Reason #6—it’s 31 in Hell.
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"Sheesh, I can only hope. Here in Wisconsin a millionaire yahoo who believes that sunspots caused global warming not humankind, is going to steal the Senate seat away from Feingold, one of the most independent progressive senators around. There's a slim chance Feingold might win but it's about as likely as them dang sunspots melting the icebergs."
LoL!
The “Robopoll effect”
Ha!
I got a robopoll call recently. The first question was approval of King Baraq. Apparently, my answer wasn’t acceptable, so the bot hung up on me.
So, how accurate will that poll be?
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