Posted on 11/02/2010 4:51:20 AM PDT by Maceman
While our forecast and a good deal of polling data suggest that the Republicans may win the House of Representatives on Tuesday, perhaps all is not lost for the Democrats. Here’s one possible scenario for how things might not end up as expected.
It was hard to pinpoint exactly when in the night things started to go wrong. But at some point, a trash can was knocked over in John A. Boehner’s office in the Longworth House Office Building. A half-hour later, a hole was punched in the wall at the Republican National Committee’s headquarters.
Republicans didn’t really have much reason to be upset. They were going to pick up somewhere between 29 and 34 House seats from Democrats, pending the outcome of a recount or two and the receipt of mail ballots in some Western states. They gained five Senate seats from Democrats, and won the governorships in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Florida, among many other states. It had been a wave election, indeed — but a wave on the magnitude of 2006, rather than 1994.
. . .
1. The cellphone effect. This one is pretty simple, really: a lot of American adults (now about one-quarter of them) have ditched landlines and rely exclusively on mobile phones, and a lot of pollsters don’t call mobile phones.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...
....just the NYT pissin in da wind
We’ll know soon.
Reason 1: Stupid, lazy people want more “free” stuff, paid for with other peoples’ money. The Democrats are more than happy to provide this; it’s about all they do these days.
Voter Fraud
The only way the dems win is if they make enough noise to wake the dead.
Translation: They're stealing it.
I want what Nate Silver is smoking. But you’d have to live in California to get that stuff after today.
So the polls all tilt toward over-sampling of Republicans... these liars can’t even come up with lies that are semi-believable.
Here’s what this story is REALLY about: a cover story in case voter fraud is massive and obvious.
My theory for why Nate is full of it: Nate’s yoga instructor convinced Nate that drinking his own urine is therpeutic.
Nate has his theories and I have my own.
My theory for why Nate is full of it: Nate’s yoga instructor convinced Nate that drinking his own urine is therapeutic.
5 Reasons Republicans Could Do Even Better Than Expected
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/31/5-reasons-republicans-could-do-even-better-than-expected/
1. Downballot and cross-ballot effects. Republicans are poised to win somewhere from 22 to 28 of the 37 United States Senate races on the ballot. There are also 37 races for governor; the picture there is a bit murkier, but Republicans will almost certainly win a clear majority, and could conceivably win as many as about 30.
2. Unlikely voters voted — and they voted Republican! Almost all pollsters apply likely voter models of some kind, which estimate how likely a respondent is to vote based on their degree of interest in the election, their voting history, and in some cases, their knowledge of things like where their polling place is. On average, these models show Republican candidates performing about 6 points ahead of their standing among all registered voters in these surveys.
3. The incumbent rule, or something like it, makes a comeback. The incumbent rule — the notion that undecided voters tend to break against the incumbent — is something that I’ve spent a lot of time debunking. There isn’t really any evidence that it’s been true in recent elections (the period I’ve studied in detail covers 1998 through 2008). Undecided voters in these elections were about as likely to vote for incumbents as challengers.
4. The Scott Brown effect. Here is a little pet theory of mine. Say that you’re a fairly conservative Republican in Massachusetts. Your senators have been John Kerry and Ted Kennedy for many, many years. Your representative to the House is a Democrat. Your governor is a Democrat. Your state always votes Democrat for President. You feel compelled to vote out of patriotic duty, and you usually do. But deep down, you’re resigned to the fact that your vote won’t really make any difference, and the candidates you want to win never will. And to be honest, you’ve got a little bit of pent-up frustration about this.
5. Likely voter models could be calibrated to the 2006 and 2008 elections, which were unusually good for Democrats. In addition to wrongly excluding some Republican “unlikely voters” (see Point No. 2), it’s also conceivable that some likely voter models based on past voting histories are overrating the propensity of Democrats to vote. The reason could be that some of them are based on past voting history, and a common question is whether the voter had participated in the last two elections.
5 1 Reasons Democrats Could Beat the Polls and Hold the House:
Voter Fraud
Ding ding ding..Folks we have a winner! Exactly,VOTER FRAUD! The way all of a sudden every news organization is saying a Republican landslide says they are doing it because they know something we do not know. FRAUD FRAUD FRAUD The media never says anything in a good way towards conservative unless they can then use is against them...
The left might be living on food stamps and welfare but they all have iPhones.
Highly unlikely to see them bothering to vote. They have their phone, their flat screen, their internet connections all paid for and they know that stuff is not going away.
BINGO !
“There is massive interest among Democrats in this election. They are fired up and ready to go. Real enthusiasm on the Left this year. Vote totals expected to be very high.”
That is total BS. Were you listening to a Commie News Network affiliate?
Vote totals will be high, but not for Dimowits.
Demorat wet dream. Ring, ring, ring. Time to wake up and smell the coffee.
Please think twice about applying the word “Reasoning” to Democrats.
They operate on basic motor functions, like “food!” “porn!” “give me money!”... stuff like that. Kind of like the zombies in “Dawn of the Dead.”
I have a better scenario than this NYT clown. We wake up tomorrow and we’ve destroyed them. Democrats commit mass suicide in their parents’ basements, coffee houses and union halls. We celebrate and offer to donate $1.00 to each of them to help with the burials.
THIS IS D-DAY FOR THE RATS. Let’s make it their worst nightmare!
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