Early voting offers encouragement to Democrats

The Washington Post ^ | Saturday, October 23, 2010 | Karen Tumulty

[speelurker]

In an election year when good news has been scarce for Democrats, anxious party strategists are heartened by at least one development: In states that have started voting, early indications are that Democratic turnout could be stronger than expected.

Despite the much-discussed "enthusiasm gap," early balloting suggests that the voter turnout engine that Barack Obama revved up in 2008 has not sputtered out entirely, according to the Atlas Project, a Democratic consulting firm that analyzed voter data.

The firm told its clients Friday that early ballots in the 17 states where voting has been sufficient to draw historical comparisons show a partisan balance that looks very much like that in 2006, the year Democrats took back the House and the Senate.

"In many states, it even appears that the electorate so far is a little more Democratic than in 2006, although it is still early in the early voting process," reported the firm, which was founded by Mary Beth Cahill, manager of John F. Kerry's 2004 presidential campaign, and Steve Rosenthal, a former political director for the AFL-CIO. "Further, in some states like Georgia, Florida, Michigan and North Carolina, African Americans in particular seem to be making up a greater proportion of early voters at this point than in 2006."

[JLAGRAYFOX]

This is totally untrue!!! Fact is: The exact opposite is true. Pubbies & Company are running way ahead just about everywhere and...it is going to get much stronger on the Republican/Conservative side!!! Prediction: the entire South will go heavily Republican/Conservative. Texas & Florida will lead the way. Texas will just about turn totally red and Florida will be just slightly behind it. This is going to be a wipeout of Democrats all across the nation. If the Dems had any brains or sense, they should just stay home. Obama and his minions are toast. Now, all you good folks get out and vote to totally destroy the “hate America” Democrat Party all across the nation on or before November 2, 2010!!!

[The Duke]

The Democrats are in a no-win situation. In fact the best thing they could probably hope for would be a clean sweep by the Republicans.

[Dr. Bogus Pachysandra]

“Whistling in the dark...”

Wee Weeing into the wind!

[vrwconspiracist]

Man, if I were a Dem who may not want to decide now that I’m supporting Obama in the Dem primary in 2012, I might just sit this election out or at least go in and vote third party. If Obama keeps the House losses under 60 and a tie or better in the Senate, he’ll be calling it a mandate for retaining the “change” he’s “led” so far...

[piytar]

This is all you need to read about this propaganda: “the firm, which was founded by Mary Beth Cahill, manager of John F. Kerry’s 2004 presidential campaign, and Steve Rosenthal, a former political director for the AFL-CIO.”

Hope that helps...

[ncalburt]

Exactly.

Good Old Commie Karen , who seems to be changing jobs alot lately.
I guess there is a oversupply of Obama JournOlists in the dying left wing media market.

karen lives in the DC /NYC bubble in which republicans are never seen but dem party propaganda groups are her best buddies.

[Brilliant]

The question is not so much whether registered Dems are voting early, but rather who they are voting for.

[ExTexasRedhead]

DemocRATs I’ve talked are voting Republican. So, spin the early RAT voting again!!!

[BigEdLB]

If you do that against the wind, you will get wet...

[Outlaw Woman]

They have the ballots in the general election separated by party?? We have one ballot here in MO during the general.

[Outlaw Woman]

ahhh....got it. Thanks

[dusttoyou]

Correcto! Some are confusing MSM “Spin” for dem momentum.

Unless the dems have the reverse psychology down pat, they'll be lucky if we don't get a veto proof.

[FrankR]

democrats are easy to encourage...they voted for obama, didn't they?

They are all "handout whores", and will do anything for gold chains and plastic beads...

[Col Frank Slade]

“according to the Atlas Project, a Democratic consulting firm that analyzed voter data”.

Yea - OK that sounds like a legit poll.

[oldbill]

Tumulty is a left wing hack.

What is going on, however, is that the Democrats use early voting to avoid the scrutiny they might get on election day.

There are no party observers at early voting places, so you can get away with a lot of unqualified voting since no one asks questions or does much checking on the voter’s validity.

Tumulty and the Post are trying to develop momentum for waking up their democrat voters but it won’t work this time.

And forget about the polls and the “race is getting close” stories. What you are seeing is a common tactic by pollsters. As the election approaches you say the gap is closing, and try to get it into the “margin of error” band of 3%. That way you preserve your credibility when the election goes against your earlier polling numbers.

Nobody is going to hire you for the next election if you are wrong too many times on this election.

Just watch how many of these “too close to call” polls turn out to have results outside the magic 3% “margin of error”.

[Slyfox]

early indications are that Democratic turnout could be stronger than expected

Now, that could mean that they didn't expect hardly any demoncraps to show up to vote at all, and are happy with the few that are showing up.

[engrpat]

I live in No. Texas and our paper had the following information:

Early voting to date in Tarrant County shows 51,398 vs. 34,821 the last gubernatorial election.

Statewide shows 550,939 vs. 287,172 4 years ago.

I really doubt if 260,000 voters have rushed out to vote for White and the democrats.

[Former War Criminal]

I hope to God your assessment is correct, but...

In 2008, my wife and I made calls for about six weeks leading up to the general election. Since we were in Massachusetts, the conventional wisdom of the local Republican brain trust was to have us call only into New Hampshire.

The response for McCain/Palin was overwhelming. We both went to bed on Election eve thinking that New Hampshire was a sure thing for the Republicans.

It's been a national nightmare ever since, although the election to replace Teddy Kennedy has provided some consolation.

We go to Sean Bielat rallies now as a form of therapy. Hopefully, that is not an inside joke!

[unkus]

DemocRATs I’ve talked are voting Republican. So, spin the early RAT voting again!!!

---

In the privacy of the voting booth more Dems. will vote Republican than we will ever know. A lot of Union voters vote Republican and don’t say a word.

[Liz]

Early Voting Favoring GOP
Hot Air ^ | 10/23/2010 | Ed Morrissey
FR Posted on Saturday, October 23, 2010 by Brices Crossroads

Jim Geraghty got an e-mail from a reader who crunched the numbers... in the early-voting states, and the news looks pretty encouraging...

Comparing the numbers from 2008, Geraghty’s reader says that in seven key states, Republicans have improved their performance in turnout for early voting thus far by almost 15 points, a stunning turnaround and one that may put the likely-voter models used by even the best pollsters in doubt.

The smallest gain is 4.2% in West Virginia, where even Democrats are breaking towards the GOP, to a 27-point gain in Florida, where over half of all early voting has been Republicans.

In Colorado, where voters have to choose a governor and a Senator, Republican ballots increased over 7 points from the 2008 early voting.....

In Nevada, the Clark County vote (which includes Las Vegas) shows an increase of 7 points for Republicans, and in Washoe County (Reno, Tahoe) the GOP have increased over 11 points in early-voting turnout....

Pollsters expected a more robust Republican turnout in 2010 than in 2008, of course. In analyzing most of their likely-voter models in the last few weeks, it’s clear that they didn’t expect a +15 in the gap from 2008. Many have been arguing that Democrats had begun closing that gap in the last two weeks.

Assuming that holds up not just in early voting but also in Election Day turnout (as well as absentee ballots, which get counted on Election Day and not as early voting), then most of the likely-voter models will have significantly underestimated the Republican wave, even apart from the right turn of the independents.

Even if GOP turnout on Election Day turns out to be half as significant, the likely voter models will still have left the polls short of the amplitude of the wave that’s coming. (Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...

OHIO CAMPAIGN STOP "Barack, you think these cheering suckers will vote Democrat, again, after all your screwups."

" My screwups? You the one who went globe-trotting to Spain. That dumba** trip killed my agenda for good."