Hot Air ^ | 10/23/2010 | Ed Morrissey
FR Posted on Saturday, October 23, 2010 by Brices Crossroads
Jim Geraghty got an e-mail from a reader who crunched the numbers... in the early-voting states, and the news looks pretty encouraging...
Comparing the numbers from 2008, Geraghty’s reader says that in seven key states, Republicans have improved their performance in turnout for early voting thus far by almost 15 points, a stunning turnaround and one that may put the likely-voter models used by even the best pollsters in doubt.
The smallest gain is 4.2% in West Virginia, where even Democrats are breaking towards the GOP, to a 27-point gain in Florida, where over half of all early voting has been Republicans.
In Colorado, where voters have to choose a governor and a Senator, Republican ballots increased over 7 points from the 2008 early voting.....
In Nevada, the Clark County vote (which includes Las Vegas) shows an increase of 7 points for Republicans, and in Washoe County (Reno, Tahoe) the GOP have increased over 11 points in early-voting turnout....
Pollsters expected a more robust Republican turnout in 2010 than in 2008, of course. In analyzing most of their likely-voter models in the last few weeks, it’s clear that they didn’t expect a +15 in the gap from 2008. Many have been arguing that Democrats had begun closing that gap in the last two weeks.
Assuming that holds up not just in early voting but also in Election Day turnout (as well as absentee ballots, which get counted on Election Day and not as early voting), then most of the likely-voter models will have significantly underestimated the Republican wave, even apart from the right turn of the independents.
Even if GOP turnout on Election Day turns out to be half as significant, the likely voter models will still have left the polls short of the amplitude of the wave that’s coming. (Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
OHIO CAMPAIGN STOP "Barack, you think these cheering suckers will vote Democrat, again, after all your screwups."
" My screwups? You the one who went globe-trotting to Spain. That dumba** trip killed my agenda for good."