Big shift by analyst in Alan Grayson-Dan Webster race

cfnews.com ^ | 10-4-10 | Scott Harris

[Justaham]

There has been a dramatic shift in the forecast of a nationally recognized political analyst in the race between Alan Grayson and Daniel Webster in Florida’s 8th Congressional District.

Nate Silver has begun working with the New York Times this year. Silver has run FiveThirtyEight.com (538 is the total number of electoral votes in a Presidential election), and uses heavy statistical analysis to come up with his forecasts.

According to Silver, incumbent Democrat Alan Grayson has gone from an almost 59 percent chance of winning to less than 40 percent in one week! Silver relies mostly on polls and statistical analysis, and has no narrative to explain the shift. He does note last week's Sunshine State Poll, which had Webster up seven points.

Of course, last week was marked by heavy publicity over the Grayson campaign ad that called Webster 'Taliban Dan.' Many of the reports noted a certain amount of backlash against Grayson.

Silver does only show two polls for District 8, and that is one of the problems in handicapping congressional races. There are just not that many public polls. Real Clear Politics, which tries to list all the recent polls for the races it handicaps, shows only one poll in the Grayson - Webster race. RCP has it as leaning Republican.

[Crichton]

Silver's rating is crap.

He just averages all the "expert" ratings and generic ballot and district polling.

It's a veneer of accuracy over a bunch of dreck.

RealClearPolitics and other 'human' ratings are much better guides without the fake analysis.

[Clintonfatigued]

This is excellent news. An Alan Grayson defeat would be the most satisfying victory in the House races, with the possible exception of unseating Barney Frank.

[DarthVader]

I think Grayson’s chance of defeat has been pretty high since the HC fiasco.

[musicman]

[IllumiNaughtyByNature]

Be careful of RCP though. You need to be able to wade through the static over there, since they use the cr@p poll #'s in their averages.

From what I've been seeing, based on the primary polling and the subsequent results, most of RCP is off by about +3 for GOP/TP candidates (GOP/TP candidates doing 3 pts. better than polls show). It could be even higher since the latest polls have come out and I have not looked closely at them in a couple weeks.

[Brilliant]

I guess that Grayson ran out of money to pay this guy off.

[VeniVidiVici]

What’s interesting is that even some libs are defecting from Grayson. His behavior is too over the top for even some of them. I think the reason is every election cycle they accuse Republicans (falsely) of doing just what Grayson is doing with the flat-out lying.

[Crichton]

Be careful of RCP though. You need to be able to wade through the static over there, since they use the cr@p poll #'s in their averages.

RCP has polling averages and race ratings, separately. They use polling numbers as a guide but add common sense.

There are few, if any, reputable public polls at the district level, so it's all about knowing the candidates, districts, and race dynamics.

[JulieRNR21]

Excellent News! That nasty ‘Taliban’ Ad certainly didn’t help Grayson.....and I was glad to see a number of pastors condemned it as well.

We may see another Massachusetts Miracle....Bwarney Fwranks opponent is a great candidate....and in the Marine Corp Reserve......http://seanbielat.org/

Sean Bielat is the first strong challenger to Barney Frank since the 1980s. His experience and accomplishments have shaped his views:

—As a businessman, Sean believes in focusing on economic growth and fiscal responsibility

—As a Marine, he believes in peace through strength

—As an American, he believes in a return to Constitutional values and citizen-legislators

Sean’s career highlights include—

Major, U.S Marine Corps Reserve
Independent Consultant. Helped client companies build market strategies
Program Manager, iRobot Corporation. Led $100 million, 100 person business line providing life-saving defense robots used to destroy roadside bombs in Iraq and Afghanistan
Chairman, NATO Industrial Armaments Group. Led an international team studying the potential for use of advanced reconnaissance technology in urban warfare
Management Consultant, Mckinsey & Company
Lieutenant, U.S. Marine Corps (active duty)
Sean and his wife are residents of Brookline, MA and recently had their first child, Theo. They are members of St. Mary of the Assumption Catholic Church in Brookline. Sean currently works as an independent consultant and serves as an officer in the Marine Corps Reserve.

Sean worked his way through college and graduate school, aided by scholarships and the GI Bill. He now holds a Master in Public Policy from the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, a Bachelor of Arts from Georgetown University, and a Master of Business Administration from The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. He is a member of the Knights of Columbus, the International Institute for Security Studies, and the Council on Emerging National Security Affairs.

[IllumiNaughtyByNature]

The polls I use are RCP’s final averages on the day before the election vs. final voting totals. I do see their averages skewed with whatever formula they are using and my estimates of R +3 still holds, vs. RCP’s numbers.

[Longbow1969]

We do have a problem with some crazy person named Peg Dunmire running as a 3rd party Tea Party candidate in this district. This could potentially splinter off 5% of the vote or so and, in a close election, allow Grayson to hold his seat.

[seekthetruth]

I would love to see Barney Frank kicked out on Nov.2nd too! Hope Sean Bielat gets all the support he needs from the MA voters!

[Impy]

Silver's rating is crap.

Don't you denigrated crap! Crap can be turned into fertilizer which has useful applications, unlike Mr. Silvers analysis. ;D

After the strongest possible Republican was nominated for this seat it became likely that the House would have 1 less frothing psychopath come January.