Israel has '8 days' to hit Iran nuclear site: Bolton

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[Scythian]

WASHINGTON (AFP) – Israel has "eight days" to launch a military strike against Iran's Bushehr nuclear facility and stop Tehran from acquiring a functioning atomic plant, a former US envoy to the UN has said.

Iran is to bring online its first nuclear power reactor, built with Russia's help, on August 21, when a shipment of nuclear fuel will be loaded into the plant's core.

At that point, John Bolton warned Monday, it will be too late for Israel to launch a military strike against the facility because any attack would spread radiation and affect Iranian civilians.

[agere_contra]

Take a look at the aerial pictures. The second unit has a long way to go before fuel load.

My bad. I should have made it clear that the images I posted were snapshots from Google Earth, not current data.

[agere_contra]

I think you've cracked it. If the lights don't come on in Shiraz, we know the Iranians are trying to make weapons-grade Pu-239.

It looks like (see Table II.1) the ~1% of Pu content in a spent fuel rod from a commercially-run, normal-burn-up PWR is ~56% Pu-239, the rest being other isotopes of Pu. 93% Pu-239 would be weapons-grade Plutonium.

I can't find figures for the Pu isotope profile from a PWR deliberately run at low burnup. Likely this is classified information.

The mechanism for achieving low-flux in a PWR seems to be straightforward. On paper at least the Iranians can lower the moderator pressure in the PWR to about 10% nominal to "harden" the neutron flux, effectively reducing the flux of capturable neutrons.

I don't know if the analogy is a good one, but it seems that a 'slow-cooked' fuel rod ends up with higher Pu-239.

Of course, even if it's all as simple as I am naively making out, the Iranians would also need a reprocessing plant to extract the Plutonium. One more thing for the IAF to bomb.

[tacticalogic]

If the objective is to destroy the reactor and prevent it from being used to produce material for nuclear or "dirty" weapons with minimal collateral damage, then you'd want all the damage to be within the containment.

The idea was to use a penetrator to punch a (repairable) hole in the containment dome and rupture the reactor vessel so that everything inside the dome is unsalvagable, including the fissibles.

[agere_contra]

The wiley Israelis may even hit the steel containment with some sort of HESH round that will leave the containment intact, but that will spall the inner surface of the containment off like ragged shrapnel to wreck everything within.

For nested containment they’ll either need a more complex penetrator or one that punches all the way to bedrock (and ground water).

[Pollster1]

What it sounds like you're saying is there's a larger window depending on certain variables for the rods to go fully hot?

I don't think it's prudent to go into detail, but that's essentially correct. Nothing changes in the fuel rod from storage to installation in a reactor that is shut down with the control rods fully lowered or in some equivalent condition. The risk level for the fuel rods changes fairly rapidly after the control rods are raised and the reactor goes critical.

[nina0113]

At the time I called for carpet bombing Tehran in sections until they gave up the hostages. Nothing in the last 30+ years has given me reason to think I was wrong.

My plan at the time was to publish a list of cities and the scheduled times for their destruction. 8:00 am, Tehran, 9:00 am, somewhere else, right down the line till there was not one brick left on another anywhere in the country.

I was in college then and we used to team up and go in carloads to the Iranian Embassy and drive around shouting slurs at them.

[Karliner]

True, it wouldn't be prudent. Sorry for asking. I just spoke with a nuclear physicist I know, couldn't understand much but he elaborated a bit more, thanks for the answer nevertheless. Of course I'm the same way with my past hx with nuclear power...I don't ever tell a soul, just the basics, raw basics; sadly getting older I use a little pun I created or maybe heard it somewhere and just think it's mine:

"I've forgotten more than I ever remembered( goes with my tag line)."

[Screaming_Gerbil]

...Russia has a lot of vested interest in this plant, and a bunch of dead Russian scientist and Engineers will most definitely not go unanswered by V. Putin.

Yes, but then God almighty is not going to leave an attack on Israel by Russia and the current Islamic nations unanswered either...

Gog, Magog, Israel and Russia (http://www.truthnet.org/islam/Islam-Bible/12Gog-Magog-Russia/Gog-Magog-Russia.htm)

I find it kind of amazing that the bible seems to predict a war near the end times involving Russia and the current Islamic nations vs. Israel...

[GOPJ]

As for Iran, ... "we will incinerate you, we will wipe you off the map" certainly sounds like a declaration of war to me. You'd have to be dumber than Barack Obana to miss that.

Are you saying Obana isn't missing that?

[GOPJ]

Don’t they have plants near Tehran too?

[agere_contra]

Arak HWR is in the northern midwest of Iran, and looks to be a more important (if harder) target than Bushehr. The Arak reactor is for creating weapons grade Plutonium and nothing else.

I don’t know where they are centrifuging their Uranium, but that could do with a visit too.

[GOPJ]

I am British and I live in the UK. The Arizona flag is because "WE ARE ALL ARIZONANS NOW" (Palin) God bless America!

Love your home page!!! Thanks.

Ping to sandrat...

[SandRat]

Sweet.

[agere_contra]

Thanks GOPJ, I appreciate it.

[BipolarBob]

Great. I just got married and bought my first home and the world is going to end.

Well, it had to happen to somebody.