Posted on 07/16/2010 6:16:02 AM PDT by gumbyandpokey
U.S. SENATE RACE: Reid takes lead on Angle
New poll shows Republican losing support among every voter group
By LAURA MYERS © 2010 LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL More Info
* Elections * Opinion Polls * Politics
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL
Harry Reid Senator ahead outside of margin of error
U.S. Sen. Harry Reid has opened a strong lead over Republican opponent Sharron Angle after pummeling her in a ubiquitous TV and radio ad campaign that portrays the Tea Party favorite as "too extreme," according to a new poll for the Las Vegas Review-Journal.
The Democratic incumbent's aggressive strategy of attacking Angle's staunch conservative views from the moment she won the June 8 primary has cost her support among every voter group -- from men and women to both political parties and independents -- in vote-rich Clark and Washoe counties.
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"He's had five perfect weeks," said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the survey. "The race has been all about her, and he's been doing a good job of pounding her."
Yet Coker said it's too soon to write off Angle. More than one-quarter of the nonpartisan swing voters who probably will decide the Nov. 2 election haven't jumped to the still-unpopular Reid but instead are undecided or in the "other" or "none of these candidates" columns, the poll showed.
"I wouldn't write her obituary just yet," Coker said, noting it's a long way to November. "Three and a half months is a lifetime, and at some point she's going to be able to start fighting back."
The Mason-Dixon poll showed that if the general election were held now, Reid would win 44 percent to 37 percent for Angle. Ten percent were undecided, 5 percent would choose "none of these candidates," and the remaining 4 percent would pick another candidate on the ballot.
That is the best Reid has done against Angle this year in a series of Mason-Dixon polls. Previously, the two had been locked in a statistical dead heat with Angle finishing just ahead of Reid in February, 44 percent to 42 percent, and in June, 44 percent to 41 percent, and Reid finishing just ahead of Angle in May, 42 percent to 39 percent.
The phone survey, taken Monday through Wednesday of 625 likely voters in Nevada, is the first in which Reid has finished ahead of Angle outside the margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The Reid campaign attributed the senator's momentum to its efforts to expose the former Reno assemblywoman's views.
They include allowing young workers to opt out of Social Security and instead open personal retirement accounts, doing away with federal agencies such as the Education Department to cut spending and developing Yucca Mountain into a nuclear reprocessing facility.
"We have always said that as Nevada voters become familiar with Sharron Angle's extreme positions on Social Security, education and Yucca Mountain, they will reject her agenda," Reid campaign spokesman Jon Summers said in a statement. "Nevadans know Senator Reid is working every day to create jobs, keep people in their homes and get our economy back on track."
The Angle campaign -- a mom-and- pop operation that had been piling up debt during the GOP primary -- acknowledged it has been overwhelmed and overmatched by the rapid-fire Reid camp, which has been spending about $1 million a month, including on nonstop ads.
But Angle spokesman Jerry Stacy said the campaign is now capable of battling back after raising nearly as much money as Reid during the latest fundraising quarter that ended June 30: $2.3 million compared with $2.4 million. Angle's campaign now has nearly $1.8 million cash on hand, compared with $9 million cash for Reid, who has raised $19.2 million this election cycle.
"While we were busy raising money, Harry Reid was busy distorting Sharron Angle's record while trying to hide from his own," Stacy said in an interview. "Now it's our turn. Now that we have the money, we're going to be able to run a more effective campaign."
Stacy said that Reid's best hope of winning re-election is to keep the focus on Angle because he is unpopular at home. Also, President Barack Obama and Reid are having difficulty convincing voters that the $787 billion stimulus bill and industry bailouts are working to turn the economy around.
"Harry Reid knows he's in trouble, and he can't build himself up," Stacy said. "He can't run on his record and win. People counted Sharron out during the primary, but we proved them wrong. Do not count Sharron Angle out now. What this race is really about is the economy."
Nevada has suffered more than other state during the recession. It has a record unemployment rate of 14 percent, the highest in the nation, and record high home foreclosure and bankruptcy rates.
Angle's first and only TV ad in the general election hits Reid on the economy. Stacy said a second commercial has been cut and will air soon, also taking Reid to task for Nevada's dismal standing, becoming the hardest-hit state in the nation during the Senate leader's watch.
But Reid is starting to go toe-to-toe with Angle on economic issues, both by attacking her in TV and radio ads and by having Obama come to Nevada as he did last week to promote Reid and the Democrats' moves to create new jobs and spur private business development.
While Reid helped save the $8.5 billion CityCenter project on the Strip by pressuring banks to continue funding it, Angle has said she would not have interfered, something the senator's campaign points out in its attack ads. Reid also has a positive ad promoting his CityCenter role.
Angle and other fiscally conservative Republicans argue that private enterprises should fail or succeed on their own and government shouldn't choose which industries are "too big to fail."
Since last month, Reid's campaign has managed to make Angle nearly as unpopular as Reid.
According to the latest Mason-Dixon poll, 46 percent of voters have an unfavorable view of Reid and 37 percent have a favorable view of him now. That compares with 52 percent to 35 percent in June.
Angle's unfavorable rating, meanwhile, jumped by double digits -- from 25 percent in early June to 43 percent now -- while her favorable rating is now 33 percent compared with 38 percent last month.
"I was surprised how quickly and how effectively the Reid campaign came out against her after the primary," said Eric Herzik, political science professor at the University of Nevada, Reno. "I think Angle got caught off guard. Harry Reid didn't give her any breathing time, so she got defined as 'wacky Sharron.' "
As a result, Angle lost support across the board in July compared with early June:
■ Among men, Angle fell from 50 percent support to 41 percent now.
■ Among women, 38 percent to 33 percent.
■ Among Democrats, 12 percent to 8 percent.
■ Among Republicans, 81 percent to 70 percent.
■ Among independents, 41 percent to 35 percent.
■ Among Clark County voters, 37 percent to 32 percent.
■ And among Washoe County voters, 51 percent to 34 percent.
Reid's support ticked up a bit among all those groups except nonpartisans, with his backing holding steady at 37 percent now compared with 37 percent in the June 1-3 survey.
The Democratic incumbent, whose base of support is Southern Nevada, saw his numbers shoot up by double digits in Washoe County -- from 32 percent to 45 percent -- which should jolt Angle, whose base is Northern and rural Nevada, which remains strongly for her and against Reid.
Herzik said the new Mason-Dixon poll findings show how effective Reid's general election strategy has been, and now the question is "how well does Angle respond."
In Angle's previous close elections, Herzik said the grass-roots campaigner has usually finished strong, including when she nearly beat Rep. Dean Heller in 2006 and won the GOP primary this year.
"She needs to come up with a response that levels the playing field," Herzik said. "We've seen that Harry's Part 1 was pretty effective" in his general election campaign. "What is Harry's Part 2? What's the next thing he can use to promote his campaign and really bring down Sharron Angle?"
Social Security doesn't seem to be a winning issue for either camp because voters are so divided on it.
According to the Mason-Dixon poll, 46 percent think that allowing investment in private accounts "is too financially risky" and the current system should be left alone, which endorses Reid's position. But 41 percent agree that young workers should be allowed to "opt out" of Social Security "as long as those who have already paid into the Social Security system receive their benefits as promised," which is what Angle proposes. Another 13 percent were not sure.
Angle has said her focus will be "the economy, the economy, the economy," arguing federal government should create a low-tax, low-regulation, business-friendly environment to create jobs.
Reid's camp seems intent on highlighting his work to bring clean-energy jobs to Nevada and intent on continuing to portray Angle as out of step and out of the mainstream.
Herzik said voters should expect an "October surprise," including some sort of positive economic announcement that Obama and Reid can make to help put him over the top to victory.
In the end, Reid himself has long said he doesn't need to raise his support too much higher to win because voters will face nine choices on the splintered ballot: Reid, Angle, four nonpartisan candidates, one Independent American Party contender, one Tea Party of Nevada candidate and "none."
Contact Laura Myers at lmyers@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2919.
The libs are hoping that voters will stay home again this election. If they make up stories like this it may happen.
Harry has effectively painted Sharron as a total whack job with ads that air every few minutes. There is no question that the “mushy middle” has been influenced. The anti-Reid vote definitely remains a majority, but the Angle folks must get some dough fast so they can hire some of their own professional gunfighters. If conservatives around the Country send $5-$25 to her campaign this summer, this race can be won. The rats have no intensity and a huge number of union workers hate Harry and their thug bosses. They have to lie to the pollsters otherwise they face nasty repercussions.
This is starting to look too much like the McCain/Hayworth race in Arizona. I'm afraid "the fix is in".
This is the Rasmussen poll on the race from Teusday. It shows Angle with a slight lead but highlights the same concerns as the Mason Dixon poll:
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is creeping forward and now is nearly tied with Republican Sharron Angle in his bid for reelection in Nevada.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Nevada finds Angle with 46% support, while Reid earns 43% of the vote. Six percent (6%) like some other candidate in the race, and five percent (5%) remain undecided.
This is Reid’s best showing all year and follows a visit by President Obama to the state to help his campaign.
Reid has also been trying to raise doubts about Angle and a solid plurality of voters now have negative perceptions of both candidates. Reid is viewed Very Favorably by just 26% of Nevada voters and Very Unfavorably by 48%. For Angle, Very Favorables are 18% and Very Unfavorables are 39%.
At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.
I merely pointed out that any poll done in mid July is not reliable due to demographics, no matter how respectable the poll is.
Or is that too hard for you to figure out?
Sorry, not buying a Mason Dixon poll, no way, Rasmussen has her +3, I’m also waiting on Survey USA which probably has the most accurate State by State polls in the business.
An incumbent with a virtual 100% name ID and only 44% favorability rating?
Any rational interpretation of this polling data would suggest that Reid is toast.
The Reid campaign may want to talk up that this poll, or this election, is all about his opponent, but a 44% favor rating is a ticket to private employment. I’d be talking about ANYTHING other than his numbers, as well.
Relax. There is plenty of time for Name ID parity to build for Angle in this election cycle. Once that is achieved, Mr. 44% is toast.
If the partisan interpretation of the above poll (which is devastating for a sitting incumbent) scares you, donate a ten spot (or two or ten) to the Angle campaign.
Angle’s have dropped due to his negative ads. Once Angle fights back she will recapture the lead in quick order.
Bingo! All Republicans must heed the lesson delivered in Karl Rove’s op-ed yesterday. The days of taking on Democrats under the Marquis of Queensbury rules are OVER!
Pat Toomey has a nice start on this with the ads he is running in PA. It already has the usual suspects running off and crying to Obama’s Speech Police.
Its not funny.
Its catastrophic.
Perhaps the GOP will not sweep the Congress.
Americans are demonstrating in Nevada and Arizona, that despite all their rhetoric to the contrary, they are ready for a dictatorship.
This just shows how truly stupid most of the voting public really is.
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Correct
BUT
Like the man says,
If voting really meant anything they wouldn’t let us do it.
“but Mason Dixon is one of the gold standards of polling....”
What makes you think they are the “gold standard?” They weren’t even close in the VA governor’s race last year.
NOT ACCORDING TO RASMUSSEN... and three other polls.
LLS
Those "types of polls" showed Obama winning the presidency by a large margin. Those "types of polls" showed the Democrats making huge gains in the house and senate. I don't suggest you brush off these "types of polls".
“...but she needs to be much more disciplined, yet aggressive, on the campaign trail. The race needs to be about Reid and Obama - the onus will be on Angle to see that happens”
A well-put post. The million dollar question is whether she can become more disciplined on the campaign trail. Her campaign has seemed a bit gaffe-prone since she won the primary.
Angle really needs to shut up and concentrate on the issues that have gotten her this far.
“Blaming a pollster as respected as Mason Dixon is just sticking your head in the sand, imo.”
You keep hanging your hat on Mason Dixon, why, what makes you think they are so credible? Rasmussen and Survey USA are the best in the business, look it up. Like I said before, Mason Dixon wasn’t even close in the VA governor’s race last year while Rasmussen and Survey USA were right on the money.
Pathetic.
It was reported on an earlier thread that this poll was of REGISTERED and not Likely voters.
LLS
I'd say it's Reid's campaign with the problem.
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