Posted on 07/13/2010 6:20:27 AM PDT by rightwingintelligentsia
President Obama is "guaranteed" to win re-election in 2012, according to Allan Lichtman, a professor at American University in Washington, D.C. Lichtman's formula predicts the outcome of the popular vote without considering candidate opinion polls, campaign strategies or political events.
Lichtman's system is based on 13 political conditions that he calls "keys." The keys favor the incumbent president's party: When five or fewer of them are false, the incumbent party wins the presidency. If six or more are false, the opposition party wins. In 2007, Lichmann predicted that any Democratic candidate -- Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, or Barack Obama -- would have beaten John McCain.
Only four of the 13 keys (outlined here) are currently in the "false" column for President Obama. Counting against him are the facts that he has not achieved a major foreign policy victory, that his party will lose seats in the House of Representatives, and that per-capita economic growth does not exceed the two previous presidential terms. "True" keys include: there is no serious contest for the Democratic Party nomination, Obama has not presided over a major foreign policy failure, and his administration has achieved "major changes in national policy."
Lichtman, who described the keys theory in his 2008 book, "Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President," questions the widespread perception that presidential campaigns are "horse races" influenced by minor events and media coverage.
(Excerpt) Read more at politicsdaily.com ...
If it's found out that Iran does indeed have the bomb, this key goes into the 'False' category.
Few guarantees in life, but Obama is guaranteed wins in the city-centric coastal and northeastern states in 2012, assuming he’s not too embarrassed to run. The Dems’ double voters, dead voters, and fill-in-the-form-for-the-absentee voters got Bammy’s back, long as the checks keep cashing. Remember that Sarasota, Florida idiot, Peggy Joseph? “I won’t have to worry ‘bout puttin’ gas in my car. I won’t have to worry ‘bout payin’ my mortgage. You know. If I help him, he’s gonna help me.” Bammy gives ‘em the federal-deficit free stuff they want, they give him the votes he wants.
Ann Coulter has joked that we could rid ourselves of Democrat presidents if we’d stop women from voting, but the Democrats can, guaranteed, prevent any more conservative Republican presidents by abolishing the electoral college that weights rural votes slightly heavier than city votes.
Let's just take these one at a time:
1. There is no serious contest for the Democratic Party nomination: Wait until Hillary resigns as Secretary of State after the midterm elections and then goes on another "listening tour."
2. Obama has not presided over a major foreign policy failure: He has basically ignored foreign policy since he's been in office. Anyone who things that he can keep this up for another couple years is insane.
3. His administration has achieved "major changes in national policy": Most Americans don't view trying to turn Israel into the enemy as a positive change.
Truman served two full terms. LBJ finished JFK’s. However, you are correct.
The Professor probably knows the fix is in.
We can expect to see a lot of creative opeds from liberal mediots trying to hold up the sinking reality of their beloved Lord 0HaHa.
The reality is scored by this oped:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2551511/posts
The Fading Embers of Obama’s Coalition (WAPO turning on Obama)
The Washington Post ^ | July 13, 2010 | Marc A. Thiessen
Posted on Monday, July 12, 2010 10:04:57 PM by no dems
With midterm elections less than four months away, Republicans are fired up and ready to go. But they are not the only ones upset with Barack Obama. The president has also angered many of the key Democratic constituencies he needs to keep control of the House and Senate, and now Democrats are blowing furiously on the fading embers of their electoral coalition, hoping to stave off disaster this November.
Unions are incensed with Obama and congressional Democrats for their failure to deliver on key priorities such as card-check legislation. Another disenchanted constituency is Hispanics. Latino support for Obama has dropped 12 points since the start of the year, as anger has grown over the Democrats’ failure to make immigration reform a priority.
The drop in Hispanic support is dwarfed by the astounding 36-point drop in support for Obama from one of the most reliable Democratic constituencies: Jewish voters. Jewish Americans are outraged with Obama, says former New York Mayor Ed Koch. And it’s not because Obama’s middle name
The Halfrican might not even be around in 2012 .
What Lichtman overlooks, like many “experts”, is the fact that Obama was behind in most polls six weeks before the election. He was give a jet-propelled boost by the financial collapse of late September. Without that he might have lost. The margin of victory certainly would have been a lot closer. If the economy doesn’t improve drastically by 2012, he’s cooked.
And 7 is an odd one, because as written, it’s true. But the policy changes are hated
• KEY 7 (Policy change): The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. (TRUE)
By this man’s standards, Obama is dead meat. His foreign policy crisis is just around the corner in the Middle East as he has emboldened the Jew hating jihadists to attack Israel.
Social unrest is going to be another problem for Obama as he is mobilizing blacks to attack his political/racial enemies. Every time the far left does this, the black ghettos see it as a green light to step up their race hate verbage and criminal activity. Obama only wants them to target the Tea Party people and intimidate voters, but they don’t have that discipline. We see it in the city wildin’ groups who are attacking people of other races for sport.
The economy is a mess and it will be a mess for a long time with Obama in charge. It is going to go from bad to worse.
Finally, he is not a US natural born citizen and he will be confronted with that legal issue if he runs for re-election. McCain saved him once but I don’t think McCain will be able to muster the silence of the GOP to do it again for Obama. There are already elected GOP officials saying it is a problem.
Four: Hoover.
He has 13 conditions and at most, 20 data points (elections). Actually, you have fewer elections because he his talking about reelecting an incumbent. You have to reduce them even further because a bunch of the incumbent reelections were FDR, which strike me as a possible outlier.
You could fit almost any set of 20 data points with 13 variables.
Oh well, its already decided, I guess we’ll all have to stay home now. No need to vote. NOT!
That is percisely why we have the Kenyan in the WH. Too many republicans and conservatives sat out the election. In this last election one was voting against what they didn’t want more so than what they wanted, in McCain. That was their little temper tantrum, and look what happened. IMO, if you sit out an election, you have no right to bitch about the outcome. Those who sat out are just as much to blame as the ones we say voted for obummer out of white guilt.
I don’t agree with required voting, does favor RATS, but everyone should view it as their duty.
(4), which would help Obama, not hurt him (for a conservative/libertarian 3rd Party) and
(7) which is plainly NA if the "major" changes go against public opinion
I note that “incumbent is a raving incompetent” was not one of his keys
If there’s one thing you CAN count on, it’s that university professors know what they’re talking about.
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