It's Almost Impossible To "Get By" In The US Today

Zero Hedge ^ | 04/13/2010 | Graham Summers of Phoenix Capital Research

[SeekAndFind]

While the market cheers on the fantastic job “growth” of March 2010, the more astute of us are concerned with a growing tide of personal bankruptcies. March 2010 saw 158,000 bankruptcy filings. David Rosenberg of Gluskin-Sheff notes that this is an astounding 6,900 filings per day.

This latest filing is up 19% from March 2009’s number which occurred at the absolute nadir of the economic decline, when everyone thought the world was ending. It’s also up 35% from last month’s (February 2010) number.

Given the significance of this, I thought today we’d spend some time delving into numbers for the “median” American’s experience in the US today. Regrettably, much of the data is not up to date so we’ve got to go by 2008 numbers.

In 2008, the median US household income was $50,300. Assuming that the person filing is the “head of household” and has two children (dependents), this means a 1040 tax bill of $4,100, which leaves about $45K in income after taxes (we’re not bothering with state taxes). I realize this is a simplistic calculation, but it’s a decent proxy for income in the US in 2008.

Now, $45K in income spread out over 26 pay periods (every two weeks), means a bi-weekly paycheck of $1,730 and monthly income of $3,460. This is the money “Joe America” and his family to live off of in 2008.

Now, in 2008, the median home value was roughly $225K. Assuming our “median” household put down 20% on their home (unlikely, but it used to be considered the norm), this means a $180K mortgage. Using a 5.5% fixed rate 30-year mortgage, this means Joe America’s 2008 monthly mortgage payments were roughly $1,022.

So, right off the bat, Joe’s monthly income is cut to $2,438.

According to the US Department of Agriculture, the average 2008 monthly food bill for a family of four ranged from $512-$986 depending on how “liberal” you are with your purchases. For simplicity’s sake we’ll take the mid-point of this range ($750) as a monthly food bill.

This brings Joe’s monthly income to $1,688.

Now, Joe needs light, energy, heat, and air conditioning to run his home. According to the Energy Information Administration, the average US household used about 920 kilowatt-hours per month in 2008. At a national average price of 11 cents per kilowatt-hour this comes to a monthly electrical bill of $101.20.

Joe’s now down to $1,587.

Now Joe needs to drive to work to make a living. Similarly, he needs to be able to drive to the grocery store, doctor, etc. According to AAA, the average cost per mile of driving a minivan (Joe’s a family man) in 2008 was 57 cents per mile. This cost is based on average fuel consumption, tires, maintenance, insurance, license and registration, and average loan finance charges.

Multiply this cost by 15,000 miles per year and you’ve got an annual driving bill of $8,550. Divide this into months (by 12) and you’ve got a monthly driving bill of $712.

Joe’s now down to $877 (I’m also assuming Joe’s family only has ONE car). Indeed, if Joe’s family has two cars (one minivan and one sedan) he’s already run out of money for the month.

Now, assuming Joe’s family is one of the lucky ones (depending on your perspective) they’ve got medical insurance. Trying to find an average monthly medical insurance premium for a family in the US is extremely difficult because insurance plans have a wide range in deductibles, premiums, and co-pays. But according to eHealth Insurance, the average monthly premium for family policies in February 2008 was $369.

So if Joe has medical insurance on his family, he’s now down to $508. Throw in cell phone bills, cable TV and Internet bills, and the like, and he’s maybe got $100-200 discretionary income left at the end of the month.

This analysis covers all of the basic necessities of the average American household: mortgage payments, food, energy, gas, driving expenses, and medical insurance. It also assumes that Joe:

1) Didn’t overpay for his house 2) Made a 20% down-payment of $45K on his home purchase 3) Has no debt aside from his mortgage (so no credit card debt, student loans, etc) 4) Only has one car in the family and drives 15,000 miles per year 5) Keeps his energy bill reasonable 6) Does not eat out at restaurants ever/ keeps food expenses moderate 7) Has no pets 8) Pays for health insurance but has no monthly medical expenses (unlikely with two kids) 9) Keeps his personal budget under control regarding cable TV, Internet, and the like 10) Doesn’t spoil his kids with toys, gadgets, trips to the movies, etc. 11) Doesn’t take vacations.

Suffice to say, I am assuming Joe maintains EXTREMELY conservative spending habits. Personally, I know NO ONE who meets all of the above criteria. However, even if the above assumptions applied to the average American, you’re still only looking at $100-200 in “wiggle” room for spending per month!

If Joe:

1) Overpaid on his house 2) Didn’t have a full 20% down payment 3) Owns two cars 4) Eats at restaurants 5) Splurges on heating & A/C bills 6) Has any medical expenses aside from monthly premiums…

… he is running into the red EVERY month.

I also wish to note that my analysis didn’t include real estate taxes and numerous other expenses that most folks have to pay. So even if you are extremely frugal and careful with your money, it is impossible to “get by” in the US without using credit cards, home equity lines of credit or burning through savings. The cost of living is simply TOO high relative to incomes.

This is why there simply cannot be a sustainable recovery in the US economy. Because we outsourced our jobs, incomes fell. Because incomes fell and savers were punished (thanks to abysmal returns on savings rates) we pulled future demand forward by splurging on credit. Because we splurged on credit, prices in every asset under the sun rose in value. Because prices rose while incomes fell, we had to use more credit to cover our costs, which in turn meant taking on more debt (a net drag on incomes).

And on and on.

Does this mean the market is about to tank? Not necessarily, stocks have been disconnected from reality since November if not July. Bubbles (and we ARE in a bubble) take time to pop and this time around will be no different.

Best Regards,

Graham Summers

[WVNan]

RF, Megan just stated that she is Jewish. That explains the marriage. There is a different tradition involved. I am ready to give her a pass for membership.

[Salvation]

And it is going to become more difficult. Especially for senior citizens.

[Woebama]

Yah, us too. The one or one and a half income homeschooling family is a big financial sacrifice in this day and age. Most people make the choice to send their children to institutional schools, whether public or private, and that is sort of how the “system” is designed . . . to have Mom work . . .

[carton253]

That is what passes as Freeper humor. All inside jokes...

You'll catch on.

[meadsjn]

That's called being a "gold digger".

I disagree. A "gold digger" is typically an uneducated female-bimbo, chasing after a guy who already has money, typically a male-bimbo who got it by being a liar, cheat, thief, sports jock, drug dealer, actor, singer, or some other type of worthless a-hole.

A woman who prepares herself academically and culturally for a future role as housewife and mother, to be a constructive partner in a functional family, sounds to me like a "responsible" housewife-to-be and mother-to-be.

[esquirette]

Home school was a sacrifice for us too, but I was blessed to have a degree that was fairly flexible - truly a gift from God.

[meadsjn]

I just don’t get why she’d call my entire post drivel.

I'll bet most of the men here understand completely why. You have earned your wings.

[netmilsmom]

>>The first shot was taken at me.<<

You are very new here.

What you posted seemed shallow. You may think it’s wonderful, but most of us marry for love and not money. Now you can back down from the post, which you seemed to have done but my suggestion is that you read for a while and see the protocol.

Newbies never do well with attitude.

You had a plan, good for you. If my daughter told me that what you wrote was her plan in life, I would tell her, prostitution is prostitution. Even if that’s to be a SAHM. Nothing personal, but I got an education, saved money, continued ballet well into my 30s, married a great man that I love and now I’M a SAHM. I didn’t have to marry someone I thought little of, for cash.

[netmilsmom]

LOLOLOL!!!!!

(then she said that she is an only child)

[netmilsmom]

>>A woman who prepares herself academically and culturally for a future role as housewife and mother, to be a constructive partner in a functional family, sounds to me like a “responsible” housewife-to-be and mother-to-be. <<

A woman who marries a “geek” because he has potential for earning big bucks, is a “gold-digger” any way you slice it.

I’m married to a “geek” because I love him. I came with a hefty savings and a house.

[ctdonath2]

Cash doesn’t care.

[Caipirabob]

It’s cool. I’m just saying, because I know that you’d really like her or admire her if you get to know her.

[netmilsmom]

>>My hubby is the most wonderful man in the entire world. If the personal attacks against me continue, I’ll take my business elsewhere.<<

I fear “The most wonderful man in the world” would be crushed to read your post. I know mine would, but I wouldn’t have said I married below my potential for cash.

If you want to take that personally, be my guest.

[CSM]

I feel like such a maroon.

[cynwoody]

FWIW, I just ran a whois on the article site, zerohedge.com. It's hosted in Sweden and registered to a Liechtenstein address:

Administrative Contact:
    Singer, Marla  
    Hag 52
    Trisenberg, Trisenberg LI-FL-9497
    LI
    4232368531

Marla's no hag, nor is she 52, if this is really her:

[netmilsmom]

Don’t.

Smarmy newbies suck. I remember my first smackdown on FR. Every one of us had one. And depending on the reaction, lets us know if it’s a real poster or a Huffpo plant.