Posted on 03/18/2010 7:11:08 AM PDT by GOPGuide
Longtime incumbent John McCain now leads conservative challenger J.D. Hayworth by just seven points in Arizona’s hotly contested Republican Senate Primary race.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely Arizona GOP Primary voters shows McCain ahead 48% to 41%. Three percent (3%) favor another candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.
Following the announcement that Sarah Palin would campaign for his reelection, McCain opened up a 53% to 31% lead over Hayworth in January. The two men were in a near tie in November.
But now Hayworth, a former congressman turned popular local talk radio host, is a formal candidate, and anti-immigration activist Chris Simcox has quit the race and endorsed him. For McCain, the new numbers also show him dropping again below 50%, and incumbents who poll less than 50% at this stage of a campaign are considered potentially vulnerable.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
Hayworth leads by seven points among male primary voters but trails by 23 among women. He edges McCain by five points among party conservatives, but the incumbent holds substantial margins among Republicans who identify themselves as moderates or liberals.
Hayworth has been attacking McCain as not conservative enough, but the senator, who just two years ago was the Republican presidential nominee, has been countering with a number of heavyweight endorsements from the right. Palin will attend a McCain rally in Tucson later this month.
Polling last fall found that 61% of Arizona Republicans felt McCain was out of touch with the party base.
Arizona Republicans will choose their Senate nominee in an August 24 primary, and for now that’s the major battle of this Senate cycle since no major Democrat has announced yet as a candidate.
Twenty-nine percent (29%) of GOP Primary voters have a very favorable opinion of McCain, who has represented Arizona in the Senate since 1987. Fifteen percent (15%) view him very unfavorably.
Hayworth is seen very favorably by 25% and very unfavorably by 15%.
While both candidates are well-known among likely primary voters, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers at this point in a campaign.
Just 11% of Republicans in the state approve of the job President Obama is doing, while 88% disapprove.
Forty-seven percent (47%) approve of the performance of the state’s GOP governor, Jan Brewer, who is in a tough reelection battle this year. Fifty percent (50%) disapprove. These findings include six percent (6%) who strongly approve of how she’s doing her job and 17% who strongly disapprove.
In 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected nationally that Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports projected the national vote totals for both George W. Bush and John Kerry within half-a-percentage-point.
In Arizona during the 2008 campaign, Rasmussen Reports polling showed McCain winning the state by a 51% to 45% margin. McCain defeated Obama 54% to 45%. In the 2006 Arizona governor’s race, Rasmussen polling showed Janet Napolitano defeating Len Munsil 58% to 37%. Napolitano won 63% to 35%. In the 2006 race for U.S. Senate, Rasmussen polling showed Jon Kyl leading Jim Pederson by nine, 51% to 42%. Kyl won by nine, 53% to 44%.
See all Rasmussen Reports 2008 state results for president, Senate and governor. See 2006 results for Senate and governor. See 2004 state results for president.
The problem with that is, if Arizona gets McCain, the Republican party and the entire nation gets the backstabbing little weasel.
Tancredo endorsed Romney
DeMint endorsed Romney
Pawlenty endorsed McCain
Thompson endorsed McCain
Newt endorsed Scozzafava
Santorum endorsed Specter
Rubio endorsed Huckabee
Santorum endorsed Romney
Scott Brown endorsed Rommey
Ann Coulter endorsed Romney
Mark Levin endorsed Romney
Dick Cheney endorsed McCain
Thune endorsed McCain
Jindahl endorsed McCain
Huckabee endorsed McCain
Bachmann endorsed McCain/Palin
Ron Paul endorsed Chuck Baldwin
Forgot one:
Paul Ryan endorsed McCain for President
I hope, we don’t end up splitting the votes in novemember. It is getting nasty. Whoever wins in this race, should win by a clear margin and focus the attention on getting the democrats out in November.
Very simple. McCain was the lesser of two evils during the election. Not so this time around if we get a REAL conservative running against the One.
Well that's the thing, I DON'T understand why she is supporting him. I also don't buy that whole argument of "well, McCain was good enough when you voted for him last fall against Obama" - and "Sarah would be pounded for saying he was the right candidate last fall and then to say he wasn't the right one now".
BS!!!
Last fall it was a choice between the liberal McCain ticket, somewhat tempered by the more conservative Sarah Palin - and the UBER-liberal Obama. Now, the voters have a choice between the liberal McCain and a more conservative candidate. It's a totally different choice!
And now, there are people that would have me buy the argument that Sarah's misplaced loyalty to McCain OUTWEIGHS her loyalty to the American people! It doesn't wash in my book - and my Sarah Palin bumper sticker goes off my vehicle if she goes ahead next week and campaigns for McCain. I will not blindly follow anyone over a cliff - no matter how much I like them!
Assuming no health breakdown just before the election, I think McCain narrowly wins.
What’s up with a 20+ gap among women? McCain is seem as more sympathetic? ... any thoughts??
Personally, if JD doesn't defeat Juan, I'd rather see a Dim be the next senator from Arizona. A backstabber and underminer within the ranks is more damaging than a known member of the other party. McCain needs to be purged.
I think someone's past endorsements are entirely in play because its the only way you can see a pattern. Considering Sarah's other endorsements, dancing with the one who brung ya doesn't bother me (as much as I loathe McCain).
Woman love Sarah Palin - she is campaigning for McCain - do the math. Like it or not people - she is HELPING McCain!
Haha! You probably should have read the book, then you would have known right there that she was supporting McLame.
It’s difficult to take posters seriously when they claim that an endorsement and 1 or 2 days campaigning from Sarah is going to throw the election to McLame.
Maybe she really is saint Sarah? LOL!
If JD loses it’s because of JD, not Sarah.
(Disclaimer: I detest Juan McLame, but I voted for him in the last election because he was on the ticket with Sarah. Does that make me a RINO?)
Not being from AZ, that seems like the only explanation...betcha she’ll be back for more campaigning closer to the primary, you think?
So you're saying Sarah's endorsement doesn't carry much weight?
(Disclaimer: I detest Juan McLame, but I voted for him in the last election because he was on the ticket with Sarah. Does that make me a RINO?)
No, but to support him now - against a more conservative candidate - DOES make a person a RINO!
I like Sarah, but she can't convince me to vote for McCain in the primary. In the general though, I can't bring myself to sit it out and let a Dem take it. I just can't.
If she's campaigning for him now - yes - I betcha she'll keep campaigning for him all the way up to election day. She's made her bed, and now she's going to have to lay in it.
Hayworth is in the ballpark. This might finally be the end of McLame.
Women need a daddy figure. McCain is like grandpa to them. Remember they usually vote based on emotion.
So you’re saying Sarah’s endorsement doesn’t carry much weight?
Not enough weight to win him the election.
You people keep blaming the wrong person. Who went to who? Did McCain ask Sarah for help or did Sarah go to McCain on her own?
I blame McCain for putting Sarah in a tight spot and I will be curious if McCain returns the favor if Sarah decides to run.
For all I know McCain knows he is unpopular with real conservatives and he is stabbing Sarah in the back once again by taking her down with him.
As for the ones who refuse to vote for her because of McCain, I suspect all it would take is Sarah changing the color of her lipstick to lose the votes of the ones who were never going to vote for her anyway.
Just like what happened in Massachussetts (Assachussetts), hopefully Hayworth will beat out McCain in the primary. I have alot of respect for Sarah Palin, but i disagree with her here.
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