Posted on 03/18/2010 7:11:08 AM PDT by GOPGuide
Longtime incumbent John McCain now leads conservative challenger J.D. Hayworth by just seven points in Arizona’s hotly contested Republican Senate Primary race.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely Arizona GOP Primary voters shows McCain ahead 48% to 41%. Three percent (3%) favor another candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.
Following the announcement that Sarah Palin would campaign for his reelection, McCain opened up a 53% to 31% lead over Hayworth in January. The two men were in a near tie in November.
But now Hayworth, a former congressman turned popular local talk radio host, is a formal candidate, and anti-immigration activist Chris Simcox has quit the race and endorsed him. For McCain, the new numbers also show him dropping again below 50%, and incumbents who poll less than 50% at this stage of a campaign are considered potentially vulnerable.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
Hayworth leads by seven points among male primary voters but trails by 23 among women. He edges McCain by five points among party conservatives, but the incumbent holds substantial margins among Republicans who identify themselves as moderates or liberals.
Hayworth has been attacking McCain as not conservative enough, but the senator, who just two years ago was the Republican presidential nominee, has been countering with a number of heavyweight endorsements from the right. Palin will attend a McCain rally in Tucson later this month.
Polling last fall found that 61% of Arizona Republicans felt McCain was out of touch with the party base.
Arizona Republicans will choose their Senate nominee in an August 24 primary, and for now that’s the major battle of this Senate cycle since no major Democrat has announced yet as a candidate.
Twenty-nine percent (29%) of GOP Primary voters have a very favorable opinion of McCain, who has represented Arizona in the Senate since 1987. Fifteen percent (15%) view him very unfavorably.
Hayworth is seen very favorably by 25% and very unfavorably by 15%.
While both candidates are well-known among likely primary voters, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers at this point in a campaign.
Just 11% of Republicans in the state approve of the job President Obama is doing, while 88% disapprove.
Forty-seven percent (47%) approve of the performance of the state’s GOP governor, Jan Brewer, who is in a tough reelection battle this year. Fifty percent (50%) disapprove. These findings include six percent (6%) who strongly approve of how she’s doing her job and 17% who strongly disapprove.
In 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected nationally that Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports projected the national vote totals for both George W. Bush and John Kerry within half-a-percentage-point.
In Arizona during the 2008 campaign, Rasmussen Reports polling showed McCain winning the state by a 51% to 45% margin. McCain defeated Obama 54% to 45%. In the 2006 Arizona governor’s race, Rasmussen polling showed Janet Napolitano defeating Len Munsil 58% to 37%. Napolitano won 63% to 35%. In the 2006 race for U.S. Senate, Rasmussen polling showed Jon Kyl leading Jim Pederson by nine, 51% to 42%. Kyl won by nine, 53% to 44%.
See all Rasmussen Reports 2008 state results for president, Senate and governor. See 2006 results for Senate and governor. See 2004 state results for president.
>>>>>>.... many here would not have voted for Reagan based on some of his tax and abortion votes as gov of California, and some of his endorsements and campaigning choices, too.
Personal endorsements are mostly meaningless and campaign decisions are quickly forgotten. There has always been a small contingent of malcontents and revisionists who opposed Reagan throughout his political career.
I think the vast majority of FReepers would have voted for Reagan, as both a candidate for Governor and President. Reagan did raise taxes as Governor, but he returned $5-billion to taxpayers in the form of four major rebates. More importantly, Reagan revived California by fostering economic growth through small business expansion and migration of exisitng businesses to California. The abortion issue has been blown way out of proportion by those revisionists I mentioned. Reagan never supported abortion on demand, personally or as a matter of public policy.
How’s things over there at McLame campaign headquarters, TROLL?
Take your McWhacked talking points and get lost. McNutt is a Liberal RINO.
Thanks for posting this. I’ve been registered as a Democrat in AZ in order to vote for the weaker primary candidate. However, the stakes are too high to continue, and this post prompted me to go online and re-register as a Pubbie. There’s no way I’m gonna miss a chance to take McClain down.
So the people who keep saying, “she’s supporting McCain, she’ll never get my vote” would have voted for Reagan?
I don’t think so.
No argument, just name calling. McLame? McWhacked? McNutt?
I don’t live in AZ, am not shilling for, nor voting for McCain, have never given him $ and will not.
I’m trying to pin purists down as to what, exactly, makes Hayworth more conservative than McCain EXCEPT amnesty?
You’ve jumped on a purist bandwagon with no facts. Hayworth is not the purist you think he is. He’s more like Scott Brown than you want to admit.
As central as McCain is, he’s not Ted Kennedy, therefore Hayworth is not the better substitute that Brown was.
We do NOT need another pork barrel, entitlement voting, unfunded mandate supporting Repub in DC. I do not think Hayworth is who you think he is.
McCain is strong on national security.
He is strong on responsible spending.
These are the two areas in which BO is RUINING this country.
What are Hayworth’s strengths in these areas?
What is Hayworth’s conservative creds BESIDES amnesty and hosting a conservative talk show?
Too bad you can’t argue for your guy, but just attack and namecall anyone who brings up legitimate points.
McCain’s not my guy, but he’s better at this time for this country than Hayworth. IMO.
Hehehehe. This is actually good news for JD. Time for that back stabbing McCain to be put out to pasture.
From your keyboard to the voters ears.
Only if you call TARP "responsible."
There you are, see my last post. I am in the middle of it all, so I have the fly on the wall out look. I think this is great news.
“Paul Ryan endorsed McCain for President”
Was he supposed to endorse Obama instead?
There’s a difference here. One is a RINO, one a conservative. Sarah should know better.
As for all the others on the list, the same applies. They HAD to endorse someone that would at least have a bit in common with their views.
Or should they have done something else? Like...
“He’s more like Scott Brown than you want to admit.”
But McCain is more like Martha Coakley than you would like to admit.
“Considering Sarah’s other endorsements...”
Rand Paul bothers the hell out of me too.
With shades of Scozzafava.
I live in AZ and I can’t stand McWhacked, and he deserves all those names and much more, and gets them on this website.
JD Hayworth was a congressman from AZ for 12 years and he was VERY conservative, and did NOT campaign conservative and go squishy in the Beltway.
You’re full of McCain BS. I think you’re part of McLame’s campaign. Get off this site with your lies about JD and about McInsane.
Go to some RINO site where they want to hear it. This is a CONSERVATIVE site. McNutt is a Liberal RINO and a traitor to the Right. He campaigns harder against the conservative Hayworth than he ever did against his friend across the aisle, Obasturd.
It is clear that you are a shill for McCain. The only alternative is that you are dumber than a box of rocks, based upon what you have posted here. I will give you the benefit of the doubt.....you are a shill.
Buh bye.
And here, I thought it was alive and well in Gibbs' head!
Your lips to Gods ears...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.