Mississippi Delta earthquake: America's Haiti waiting to happen?

The Christian Science Monitor ^ | January 17, 2010 | Suzi Parker

[LucyJo]

Scientists predict a Haiti-magnitude earthquake along the New Madrid fault during the next 50 years. The fault runs under the Mississippi Delta, one of the poorest parts of the US.

[greeneyes]

“The article fails to mention the fatal factor of a delta quake—liquefaction. The delta is basically a silt bar.”

Also a factor in St. Louis.

[Joya]

http://www.kait8.com/global/story.asp?s=12071693

JONESBORO, AR (KAIT) – An earthquake along the New Madrid Fault Line rattled a few homes Tuesday afternoon.

According to the United States Geological Survey, a 3.7 earthquake hit southeast Missouri around 1:30 in the afternoon.

The quake’s epicenter was about 2 miles east of East Prairie, Missouri. The depth of the quake was about 3 miles deep.

[21twelve]

For a real scare - overlay it with the oil and gas pipeline systems that feed the populated east coast. Here’s hoping it doesn’t happen in winter. (Oh - and it WILL happen).

[Southbound]

FYI, I believe the MO Dept. of Natural Resources has done a study on the “projected” effects of another New Madrid quake and where it would do the most damage. St. Louis and Memphis, of course, but the rest of the country should look at the effects produced by the last big ones and act accordingly. Chicago.......maybe, but not near like St. Louis or Memphis. A good history of the 1811-12 quakes is recommended. IIRC, there were three big ones varying (depending on who you read) from 7.9 to 8.3, BUT there was no one to measure them back then. BTW, the New Madrid fault, as I understand it, does NOT lie under the Mississippi delta, but along the eastern edge of the “Boot Heel region of Southeastern Missouri

[Travis McGee]

people just want to go with the flow, go along to get along, and not stir up problems they can ignore.

[Travis McGee]

You might like to read the excerpt from my third novel that’s posted on my website. It deals in detail with the aftermath of a major New Madrid quake.

[muawiyah]

Love that map.

Think of a gigantic ice sheet to the North. it's two miles high and weighs gigatons. Over a period of 2 million or so years it's come and gone at least 20 times (with a number of advances interspersed with brief interstadials).

It's like a gigantic hammer hitting the Earth's surface just North of that area.

Over and over and over and over and finally the area just above the mantle along that line through Illinois, Indiana and Ohio snaps ~ I believe they call it the Carmel Fault ~ at least through Indiana.

So, once it snaps, the mantle gets pressed downward by the weight of the ice-hammer and "flows" to the South where it begins raising the land under the Mississippi fault (already 17 miles deep and getting deeper by the millenium).

To the East the continent itself tilted. It dropped in the North and Florida rose in the South. The Appalachians mitigated the torque since they already have vast fault lines.

Thinking geologically in geological spans of time it's pretty clear the New Madrid quake occurred simply as a consequence of the Ice Sheets Not Returning On Time! The land to the North continued to rebound for an extra 5,000 years, and the land to the South (center of the red area of the map) settled back.

[Quix]

QUITE SO. QUITE SO.

Therefore, they build up their

IGNORE MUSCLES

and let their preparedness, coping muscles atrophe.

Real brilliant survival skills those.

Sigh.

Nevertheless, watchmen must still cry the alarm regardless of who wishes to terminally sleep-walk, or not.

Thanks for your wonderful part.

[mad_as_he$$]

When it happens it will be tragic event. The sad thing is that Governments in the region have known about this possibility for years and have not improved building codes. Chile would be millions dead if it weren't for tough building codes.

[Quix]

Went to your site to read the New Madrid chapter and the site turned squirrelly. Maybe it has too many visitors all of a sudden.

Thanks for the note.

[JustaDumbBlonde]

"You obviously are very limited in your mental capacity. It is the planes in the air that will need the alternate site to LAND, not the planes on the ground. What a dimwith you are."

Good grief, I guess it is too much to hope that you were kidding when you made that multi-embarassing statement.

[Travis McGee]

How do you mean, the site turned squirrelly?

[Travis McGee]

Wow, those are some BIG thoughts, when you turn to macro geo time!

[Jim Noble]

I think this is the most precise prediction I’ve heard about the New Madrid fault

The article says that "[they] predict that [it] could occur in the next 50 years".

That's not a prediction. Of course it could occur.

[LucyJo]

"When it happens it will be tragic event. The sad thing is that Governments in the region have known about this possibility for years and have not improved building codes. Chile would be millions dead if it weren't for tough building codes."

About The New Madrid Fault

THE GREAT NEW MADRID EARTHQUAKE OF 1811-1812 was actually a series of over 2000 shocks in five months, five of which were 8.0 or more in magnitude. Eighteen of these rang church bells on the Eastern seaboard. The very land itself was destroyed in the Missouri Bootheel, making it unfit even for farmers for many years. It was the largest burst of seismic energy east of the Rocky Mountains in the history of the United States and was several times larger than the San Francisco quake of 1906.

WHEN WILL ANOTHER EARTHQUAKE HAPPEN THE SIZE OF THOSE IN 1811-1812? Several lines of research suggest that the catastrophic upheavals like those in 1811-12 visit the New Madrid region every 500-600 years. Hence, emergency planners, engineers, and seismologists do not expect a repeat of the intensity of the 1811-12 series for at least 100 years or more. However, even though the chance is remote, experts assign a 3% probability of a major earthquake by the year 2040. Earthquake probabilities for known active faults always increase with time, because stresses within the earth slowly and inexorably mount, year by year, until the rocks can take no more, and sudden rupture becomes inevitable.

OUR GREATEST CONCERNS ARE THE 6.0-7.6 SIZED EVENTS, which do have significant probabilities in the near future. A 6.0 shock has a 90% chance by the year 2040. Damaging earthquakes of this magnitude are a virtual certainly within the lifetimes of our children.

But, in reality, not even the experts know for certain. The scope, as well as the degree, of potential damage is scary regardless of when it could happen.

[Quix]

error messages as though it would not open; wrong URL etc.

even though moments before it had opened fine and nothing was changed in terms of the URL.

Was merely clicking on your book cover and trying to go to that chapter.

Let me try again

Seems to be working fine now.

Thanks.

[Travis McGee]

Hopefully you just hit one of those “site down” minutes I get a few times a day....

[mad_as_he$$]

I lived in Kalifornia for many years. On thing I am certain about is that earthquake predicting is about as accurate as the Gypsy Fortune Teller.

The Goobermint spent hundreds of millions of dollars putting seismic equipment in the small town of Parkfield absolutely certain that the next rupture of the fault would happen there. Nada, zip, zero - the fault got quiet and nothing is going on.

BTW did you know the Mississippi River ran backwards for sometime after the big one on the New Madrid.

[muawiyah]

Most of the building codes that need to be improved concern multi-story buildings.

The predominant style of home in the Midwest and the Mississippi Valley is ONE STORY.

As long as they don't start using tons and tons of red quarry tile for roofing they'll probably be OK.

Now, about "downtowns", anything older than about 50 years will turn to trash.

[muawiyah]

One of the reasons folks are poor in the Central/South Mississippi Valley is the lack of development. At the same time that's a good thing.

Best to live somewhere else.