Mississippi Delta earthquake: America's Haiti waiting to happen?

The Christian Science Monitor ^ | January 17, 2010 | Suzi Parker

[LucyJo]

Scientists predict a Haiti-magnitude earthquake along the New Madrid fault during the next 50 years. The fault runs under the Mississippi Delta, one of the poorest parts of the US.

[LucyJo]

One of the strongest series of earthquakes ever to hit the United States happened not in Alaska or along California's San Andreas fault, but in southeast Missouri along the Mississippi River.

In 1811 and 1812, the New Madrid fault zone that zig zags through five states shook so violently that it shifted furniture in Washington, D.C., and rang church bells in Boston. The series of temblors changed the course of the Mississippi River near Memphis, and historical accounts claim the river even flowed backward briefly.

[madison10]

What does it being poor have to do with an earthquake hitting the area?

[Graybeard58]

Earth quakes pick on poor people, just like hurricanes do.

Don’t even get me started about tornadoes and trailer parks.

[cripplecreek]

They go looking for pickup trucks on blocks. That’s how disaster knows were to strike.

[DannyTN]

"What does it being poor have to do with an earthquake hitting the area?"

The poor lives in housing that is not as likely to stand up to an earthquake. And they can't afford to lose what little they have and will need public assistance if they do.

[Eyes Unclouded]

Something about a pact with the devil...

[hinckley buzzard]

The article fails to mention the fatal factor of a delta quake--liquefaction. The delta is basically a silt bar. Shake it and it liquefies. Everything on top of it, buildings, bridges, levies, will sink like it was water. Nothing will be left but a bunch of "survival kits" floating on the surface, and the occasional boat.

[cripplecreek]

I think this is the most precise prediction I’ve heard about the New Madrid fault. I’d be curious as to what they base it on.

[Bernard Marx]

Don’t even get me started about tornadoes and trailer parks.

Here on the CA coast the weather forecast last night said there might be water spouts today that could reach land.

"Don't worry, we're safe" I told my wife. "There are several trailer parks between the beach and our house."

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Solid rock in this part of Missouri.

[who knows what evil?]

I’d be curious as to what they base it on.

Voodoo.

[muawiyah]

Another New Madrid quake of the size and location of the 1811/1812 quake will knock Chicago, St. Louis, Indianapolis, Evansville, the cities of the plain in Central Illinois, Louisville, Cincinatti, Nashville, Vicksburg, Memphis and a whole host of other places OVER!

[LucyJo]

The "experts" say the Delta isn't as prepared to deal with an earthquake of that magnitude, because of the poverty and lack of "retrofitting".

Geologists consider the New Madrid fault line a major seismic zone and predict that an earthquake roughly the magnitude of the Haiti earthquake (7.0 on the Richter scale) could occur in the area during the next 50 years.

That forecast is of particular concern because the New Madrid zone sits beneath one of the country’s most economically distressed areas – the Delta. In many counties in the Mississippi Delta, the poverty level is triple the national average.

Moreover, the area is comparatively less prepared to deal with a huge earthquake than are other seismically active areas in the US, says Mark Ghilarducci, vice president of James Lee Witt Associates, a crisis and emergency management consulting company in Washington.

“There have not been enough resources applied for retrofitting that there could be,” Mr. Ghilarducci says. “I would like to see far more retrofit programs, strengthening of buildings, especially masonry buildings, tying down bridges. That builds resiliency in a community.”

[Cvengr]

Interesting trend for the US. Since about 10 days ago, a great arc from the west coast to Oklahoma City, and now extending further east, along the same arc, had numerous quakes all equidistantly located at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/.

The 6 evenly spaced quakes formed the arc last weekend, and half of them are now dropped off the weekly report at the above link, but they are continuing now to the east into Tennessee.

It’s as if Karl Rove is cutting the US by the Mason Dizon line with his HAARP earthquake and weather machine.

[Disambiguator]

Ping to a subject you covered in your latest book.

[Travis McGee]

My last novel takes place in the aftermath of a major New Madrid quake, so I did a lot of research on the area and the risk. The image above captures well the much wider area of destruction that would follow a NMF quake, compared to a quake in California or even Haiti.

In the case of a NMF quake, most of the bridges over the Ohio, Tennessee and Mississippi Rivers in the affected zone could collapse, along with highway overpasses, railroad bridges and son on. The rivers would be impassible to cars, trucks, trains and tugs/barges. So it would be damned hard to get in relief supplies, other than by air, until the bridges could be rebuilt.

Western Tennessee, the area between the TN and MS rivers, would practically be cut off from any outside help. Memphis would be without power or water for weeks or longer, with no way to bring in massive relief supplies or reconstruction machinery. Certainly, the inhabitants of Memphis (already called "Mogadishu on the MIssissippi" would freak out completely before they could be rescued from outside. It would be incredibly ugly.

That's the background to my third novel. The President orders the mandatory evacuation of Western Tennessee, and most of the inhabitants refuse to go. The US National Guard is ineffective at forced evictions on a massive scale, and foreign "contract battalions" of "peacekeepers" are brought in to do the heavy lifting.

Be that as it may fictionally, a New Madrid quake would make Katrina seem like a Sunday school picnic.

[flowerplough]

Don’t need no earthquake. The Mississippi Delta is America’s Haiti, waiting to happen.

[LucyJo]

This info from 2005:

Article From 2005

By Robert Roy Britt, LiveScience Senior Writer

posted: 22 June 2005 01:05 pm ET

A colossal earthquake that caused damage from South Carolina to Washington D.C. and temporarily reversed the course of the Mississippi River nearly two centuries ago could be repeated within the next 50 years, scientists said today.

Strain is building on a fault near Memphis, Tennessee that was the site of a magnitude 8.1 earthquake in 1812, according to new observations that settle a debate on the risk of another huge quake.

The odds of another 8.0 event within 50 years are between 7 and 10 percent, geologists said today. The assessment, based on new data from a recently installed array of sensors, puts to rest a 1990s claim that strain was not increasing.

(snip)

The new study, detailed in the June 23 issue of the journal Nature, reveals a vexing characteristic of the fault that traverses the region. The ground moves more near the fault, creeping a few millimeters every year, than it does farther from it.

"I can't explain how the movement is driven," said study team member Michael Ellis, a geologist at the University of Memphis.

That lack of understanding makes the task of pinpointing when the next quake might hit even more challenging.

[Clay Moore]

News reports of the time said you could see ocean like p waves rolling across fields. Other features were the sand blows where the earth sort of opened up, blew stuff out and swallowed other things.

The liquefaction in the lower water logged areas will be bad.

Unless data has been revised, the Dec. 1811-Jan 1812 quakes were the strongest recorded quakes in North America.

[Travis McGee]

Yes, in fact, the cover art of FEAT is based both on the New Madrid quake as well as the USA splitting into disparate squabbling regions.