I think this is the most precise prediction I’ve heard about the New Madrid fault. I’d be curious as to what they base it on.
Voodoo.
By Robert Roy Britt, LiveScience Senior Writer
posted: 22 June 2005 01:05 pm ET
A colossal earthquake that caused damage from South Carolina to Washington D.C. and temporarily reversed the course of the Mississippi River nearly two centuries ago could be repeated within the next 50 years, scientists said today.
Strain is building on a fault near Memphis, Tennessee that was the site of a magnitude 8.1 earthquake in 1812, according to new observations that settle a debate on the risk of another huge quake.
The odds of another 8.0 event within 50 years are between 7 and 10 percent, geologists said today. The assessment, based on new data from a recently installed array of sensors, puts to rest a 1990s claim that strain was not increasing.
(snip)
The new study, detailed in the June 23 issue of the journal Nature, reveals a vexing characteristic of the fault that traverses the region. The ground moves more near the fault, creeping a few millimeters every year, than it does farther from it.
"I can't explain how the movement is driven," said study team member Michael Ellis, a geologist at the University of Memphis.
That lack of understanding makes the task of pinpointing when the next quake might hit even more challenging.
The history channel had a great documentary about the NM fault. IIRC, a scientist was able to tell when earthquakes hit by examining the ground, down several feet.
It's based on the desire to create hysteria. Some scientists think New Madrid is finished. The latest studies indicate that there is zero fault movement.
The one to worry about may be the Wabash fault.
The article says that "[they] predict that [it] could occur in the next 50 years".
That's not a prediction. Of course it could occur.