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Five Reasons It Might Not Pass
National Review ^ | December 21, 2009 | Rich Lowry & Robert Costa

Posted on 12/21/2009 6:28:09 AM PST by reaganaut1

Harry Reid got his 60. Ben Nelson resorted to the typical Washington expedient in such situations and bought into a few window-dressing compromises, in exchange for an enormous Medicaid benefit to his state. The Cornhusker Kickback joins the Louisiana Purchase as the latest evidence that there’s nothing like a hundred million or so in federal dollars to alleviate a senator’s deeply held concerns about the substance of Obamacare. Nelson’s sellout is a gigantic step toward the passage of the bill, but it’s not over yet. Here are five obstacles that still stand between Reid-Pelosi and a White House signing ceremony:

1. Public Revulsion. The bill was already under water in every major public-opinion poll, and opposed by a margin of almost 2 to 1 in the latest CNN poll. The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll put its support at freezing, 32 percent. A few ticks downward and the bill will be in the 20s.

Is anything that has happened recently likely to change the trajectory? The Reid bill just got even longer, and the new version includes more tax increases. Even by the standards of the United States Congress, the process has been hide-the-children ugly: massive payoffs to the on-the-fence senators and a heedless, late-night rush to pass something, anything. The Democrats have shown no inclination to let public opinion hold them back, but the stiff headwind makes everything a little harder and reduces an already-small margin for error.

One subset of public opinion will be particularly important: Nebraska. If Nelson is perceived to have made a career-defining choice that will end his designation as a conservative Democrat and a pro-lifer, and if he takes an immediate dive in the polls, it will cast a pall over other Blue Dogs inclined to play ball.

(Excerpt) Read more at article.nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: obamacare
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We should keep fighting against the bill, and if it passes work to eject it supporters in 2010.
1 posted on 12/21/2009 6:28:09 AM PST by reaganaut1
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To: reaganaut1
Reid bill just got even longer, and the new version includes more tax increases. Even by the standards of the United States Congress, the process has been hide-the-children ugly: massive payoffs to the on-the-fence senators and a heedless, late-night rush to pass something, anything. The Democrats have shown no inclination to let public opinion hold them back

These people in Congress think they're royalty. I beg to differ and we need to send a message. Me, I'm just about ready to storm the Capitol!

2 posted on 12/21/2009 6:34:09 AM PST by Rummyfan (Iraq: it's not about Iraq anymore, it's about the USA!)
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To: reaganaut1

I’m getting really tired of these columnists and pundits lying about it not passing. They’ve been wrong at every step of this nightmarish process.

If we listened to them, it wasn’t even supposed to get this far; yet, here we are, on the verge of passing this crap.

It’s going to pass and the sooner we accept that reality, the sooner we can plan our next step in how we the people will refuse to participate in this.

If they pass it, we won’t cooperate with the taxation, fees and mandates. Screw them!


3 posted on 12/21/2009 6:34:20 AM PST by nomoremods
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To: reaganaut1

I guess it doesn’t matter to these Senators that the money they are getting is coming from all over the country out of our tax dollars. So the rest of us will not only be paying taxes from our states but will also be required to chip in to pay what Nebraska isn’t paying. Disgusting people. BOOT THEM ASAP.


4 posted on 12/21/2009 6:34:41 AM PST by originalbuckeye
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To: reaganaut1

Get your mind right to work to defeat its supporters in the Congress in 2010 and hopefully reverse the damage done-it’s a travesty, no doubt; but, with this extremist left Congress, it will pass.


5 posted on 12/21/2009 6:34:41 AM PST by izzatzo
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To: reaganaut1

There’s a sixth reason that should be the number one reason. Any federal version of health care is unconstitutional since Article 1 Section 8 of the Constitution does not specifically grant Congress the power to regulate health care! This is the point people should be impressing on their Congress critters!


6 posted on 12/21/2009 6:34:58 AM PST by Man50D (Fair Tax, you earn it, you keep it! www.FairTaxNation.com)
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To: reaganaut1

Lowry and Costa left out Dodd was promised $100 million for a new hospital in Connecticut that isn’t needed nor anyone in the state wants!


7 posted on 12/21/2009 6:36:57 AM PST by Man50D (Fair Tax, you earn it, you keep it! www.FairTaxNation.com)
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To: reaganaut1

I’m sure the conference committee report was written long ago. It will make the left happy, and the Senate bill will give the blue dogs the cover they need to claim that they tried to vote for a more reasonable bill.


8 posted on 12/21/2009 6:37:39 AM PST by Daveinyork
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To: reaganaut1; nutmeg; jellybean

Ronald Reagan is rolling in his grave as I suspect the rest of us will be when we reach ours prematurely as a result of healthcare in America. I’m disgusted and so tired of the revulsion I face when tuning in to Fox News and hearing about concessions, deals, backroom strong-arming and the twists and turns of Democratic party.


9 posted on 12/21/2009 6:37:46 AM PST by stanz
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To: nomoremods

The ‘journalists’ have always been lying. It was done to create drama. With 60 Dem Senators the Bill was always a done deal. Zero will cripple our country to the point the masses will be begging the Government to help. That’s been his plan, and the ‘journalist’s’ wish, since day one.


10 posted on 12/21/2009 6:37:50 AM PST by originalbuckeye
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To: Rummyfan

11 posted on 12/21/2009 6:38:46 AM PST by MrB (The difference between a humanist and a Satanist is that the latter knows who he's working for.)
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To: reaganaut1

email these blue dogs.

If you aren’t in their district, go to superpages, people. Type in a name like “Benson” or “Johnson” from their area. Addresses with phone numbers pop up. Become that person... type your message... make up an email address like: Johnson24@hotmail.com

This is war folks. Flood their email accounts.


12 posted on 12/21/2009 6:38:56 AM PST by Reagan69 (The only thing SHOVEL-READY since BO's stimulus has been MICHAEL JACKSON (tammy bruce))
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To: reaganaut1

I’ve been trying for a while to call Ben Nelson’s office! Lines are busy busy BUSY! I sure hope he is getting a ear full from his constituents!!!!


13 posted on 12/21/2009 6:39:05 AM PST by pollywog ("Regime Change USA".... 2010-2012 ~~Let's Roll !!)
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To: nomoremods
I agree, but he actually does offer some interesting possibilities, particularly from the point of view of getting House approval. However, he's realistic:

But make no mistake: The momentum for the bill that Reid had to fake a week or so ago is now real, at least within Congress. Early next year, the question may shift from whether Democrats can pass the bill, to whether Republican can make the sort of gains in 2010 and 2012 necessary to repeal it.

14 posted on 12/21/2009 6:39:21 AM PST by livius
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To: Rummyfan
Me, I'm just about ready to storm the Capitol!

I'm with ya! That's what we need to set up, a day (preferably weekend) when we all show up.

15 posted on 12/21/2009 6:39:59 AM PST by Kenny
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To: reaganaut1

The bill is going to pass at the epense of public safety. This will be the straw that breaks the Americans back. Economy shrinks, taxes go up and health care declines. The result...public unrest and riots.


16 posted on 12/21/2009 6:40:27 AM PST by jetson
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To: Rummyfan

Anyone see this idea?: http://www.redstate.com/dan_perrin/2009/12/20/the-extraordinary-measures-needed-to-kill-the-bill/

Wonder if any of our spineless “cordial” senator have the nerve to try it.


17 posted on 12/21/2009 6:40:27 AM PST by Reagan69 (The only thing SHOVEL-READY since BO's stimulus has been MICHAEL JACKSON (tammy bruce))
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To: reaganaut1
Bart Stupak has declared the Nelson language unacceptable and vows to oppose the final bill if it doesn’t include the restrictions contained in his amendment.

Sounds familiar, doesn't it? I wonder what his price will ultimately be.

18 posted on 12/21/2009 6:40:40 AM PST by kevao (I am Joe Wilson!)
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To: reaganaut1

If there is a two to one public opposition to the bill now wait until more of the ugly details leak out. There is no way any incumbent member of Congress voting for Obamcare will keep their seat. Reid, Pelosi and especially Obama are delusional to think that pushing Obamacare down the throats of the American people will endear them to the voters.


19 posted on 12/21/2009 6:41:03 AM PST by The Great RJ ("The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money." M. Thatcher)
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To: reaganaut1
Early next year, the question may shift from whether Democrats can pass the bill, to whether Republican can make the sort of gains in 2010 and 2012 necessary to repeal it.

I thought there was language in the bill that forbade the attempt to repeal it for five or more years (or some such).

20 posted on 12/21/2009 6:41:30 AM PST by Schnucki
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