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Five Reasons It Might Not Pass
National Review ^ | December 21, 2009 | Rich Lowry & Robert Costa

Posted on 12/21/2009 6:28:09 AM PST by reaganaut1

Harry Reid got his 60. Ben Nelson resorted to the typical Washington expedient in such situations and bought into a few window-dressing compromises, in exchange for an enormous Medicaid benefit to his state. The Cornhusker Kickback joins the Louisiana Purchase as the latest evidence that there’s nothing like a hundred million or so in federal dollars to alleviate a senator’s deeply held concerns about the substance of Obamacare. Nelson’s sellout is a gigantic step toward the passage of the bill, but it’s not over yet. Here are five obstacles that still stand between Reid-Pelosi and a White House signing ceremony:

1. Public Revulsion. The bill was already under water in every major public-opinion poll, and opposed by a margin of almost 2 to 1 in the latest CNN poll. The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll put its support at freezing, 32 percent. A few ticks downward and the bill will be in the 20s.

Is anything that has happened recently likely to change the trajectory? The Reid bill just got even longer, and the new version includes more tax increases. Even by the standards of the United States Congress, the process has been hide-the-children ugly: massive payoffs to the on-the-fence senators and a heedless, late-night rush to pass something, anything. The Democrats have shown no inclination to let public opinion hold them back, but the stiff headwind makes everything a little harder and reduces an already-small margin for error.

One subset of public opinion will be particularly important: Nebraska. If Nelson is perceived to have made a career-defining choice that will end his designation as a conservative Democrat and a pro-lifer, and if he takes an immediate dive in the polls, it will cast a pall over other Blue Dogs inclined to play ball.

(Excerpt) Read more at article.nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: obamacare
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To: nomoremods

I have to agree with you there. We’ve been hearing the “reasons” this won’t pass yet it keeps clearing hurdles. I believe the next step is to try and stop this thing in the courts. There has to be judge out there who honors the Constitution ... I know, I know! Wishful thinking! Just like the wishful thinking with campaign finance reform!

There must be a way to stop this evil! Now it seems only God Himself can stop this wickedness.


21 posted on 12/21/2009 6:42:15 AM PST by Sister_T (Stealing from the rich to give to the poor is still stealing ... Exodus 20:15)
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To: reaganaut1
But make no mistake: The momentum for the bill that Reid had to fake a week or so ago is now real, at least within Congress. Early next year, the question may shift from whether Democrats can pass the bill, to whether Republican can make the sort of gains in 2010 and 2012 necessary to repeal it.

Right, like Republicans have testicles.

22 posted on 12/21/2009 6:42:39 AM PST by SoFloFreeper
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To: originalbuckeye

Yes, you are 100% correct. They lie in hopes of creating drama and in hopes we will continue to turn to them for their “wisdom”.

I appreciate that some want to hold out hope that 1 or 2 Senators or Congresspeople will save the day, but the sooner we Americans get it through our heads that no one is going to save us, the sooner we can really battle this fiasco. I put my trust in the American people and their resolve more than I do a few Senators and Congresspeople.

Stop listening to them, just like they have stopped listening to us! It’s time for us to save ourselves.


23 posted on 12/21/2009 6:42:41 AM PST by nomoremods
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To: reaganaut1
Nice try, Lowry. He gives some good reasons, but in the end, they will not matter. I was listening to Sens. Coburn and DeMint on Hannity last week. Hannity asked why so many rats, presumably Blue-dogs are voting for this when they will likely lose their seats over it. coburn and DeMint said the 'rats are so in thrall to the Obamessiah they have lost contact with reality.

They are wearing blinders and can only see what their God-King wants them to see.

24 posted on 12/21/2009 6:42:48 AM PST by Sans-Culotte ( Pray for Obama- Psalm 109:8)
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To: nomoremods
It’s going to pass and the sooner we accept that reality, the sooner we can plan our next step in how we the people will refuse to participate in this.

Maybe so but I think that everyone "just accepting" it is playing into their hands.<.p>

Instead of accepting it as inevitable, we need to start putting out the word that it's not over, it can be stopped.

25 posted on 12/21/2009 6:43:46 AM PST by Kenny
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To: reaganaut1
At least the author has the Blue Dog Democrats figured out.

4. Feeling Blue. “Blue Dog Democrat” is understandably becoming a term of derision, denoting a willingness to object only enough to be noticed before caving in to the Democratic leadership.

...

Don’t count on the Blue Dogs, though, since most of them are experts at folding under pressure.

26 posted on 12/21/2009 6:44:39 AM PST by KarlInOhio (Gore is the fifth horseman of the apocalypse. He rides an icy horse bringing cold wherever he goes.)
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To: Man50D
Any federal version of health care is unconstitutional since Article 1 Section 8 of the Constitution does not specifically grant Congress the power to regulate health care! This is the point people should be impressing on their Congress critters!

LOL. That's the funniest one I've heard yet. How can this be unconstitutional if Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security are all Constitutional? Has the constitutionality of nationalized health care been a part of the debate? Has the GOP presented any noteworthy arguments to that effect? Have the newspapers discussed it? Do the people care?

No, sorry, it's constitutional. You see, the power to "regulate commerce" doesn't even require that there be interstate commerce involved. They can regulate anything that has a "substantial effect" on interstate commerce. And if you don't like that, they have the power to make "all laws necessary and proper" for "promoting the general welfare." Oh yes, the Constitution definitely allows nationalized health care. Watch and see.

27 posted on 12/21/2009 6:44:43 AM PST by Huck (The Constitution is an outrageous insult to the men who fought the Revolution." -Patrick Henry)
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To: Kenny

I’ll storm the capitol on my snowmobile if I have to!!


28 posted on 12/21/2009 6:47:39 AM PST by McKayopectate
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To: Man50D

As we have seen several times recently, the Constitution means diddly squat. This is all happening at a pace too fast for the Supremes don’t want to step into this political couldron.


29 posted on 12/21/2009 6:47:42 AM PST by balls (Sarah, get off your facebook and do something!)
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To: reaganaut1

We need to fight to the last vote. Pick out every line that goes against Americans, fines, jail, etc. and put out full page ads, Congress vs. Americans.

Put the word out!


30 posted on 12/21/2009 6:47:47 AM PST by Kenny
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To: reaganaut1

And one reason it will pass - the Dims have the votes and will vote in lockstep.


31 posted on 12/21/2009 6:52:48 AM PST by tips up
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To: izzatzo

“Get your mind right to work to defeat its supporters in the Congress in 2010 and hopefully reverse the damage done-it’s a travesty”

Once DeathCare is inacted, we would need 2/3rd majorities to override the Kenyan’s veto.


32 posted on 12/21/2009 6:53:07 AM PST by y6162 (uish..)
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To: reaganaut1

All that we have heard from the anti-abortion crowd for decades.

Makes you wonder just how much they believed what they were trying to sell everyone else.

I mean, they’re going to be paying for millions of abortions right from their own paychecks. Their labor turned directly into the aborting of babies.

If they really believed they were paying for the murdering of babies wouldn’t they be resisting? Wouldn’t they be in the streets right now?

From their paycheck, to the politician, to the baby killer.

Where are they?

Where are Americans, period?


33 posted on 12/21/2009 6:55:26 AM PST by Boucheau
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To: reaganaut1

Forget about it! It’s passing


34 posted on 12/21/2009 7:01:49 AM PST by timetostand (Merry Christmas)
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To: timetostand

Senate GOP will meet in a while to consider dropping their filibuster. They want to go home. Can’t win the game if our guys don’t want to get on the darn field.


35 posted on 12/21/2009 7:04:13 AM PST by GOPToad
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To: reaganaut1

Interesting.

Assuming it actually passes into law, what’s the path it must take? what further modifications and votes are required? surely, as the article notes, a few “yes” votes have soured facing another round of “final” voting on this monstrosity.


36 posted on 12/21/2009 7:11:59 AM PST by ctdonath2 (It from fit.)
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To: Kenny
That's what we need to set up, a day (preferably weekend) when we all show up

need to be a siege - more than one day = divide up - more people, in all, could participate as not everyone could make the same day.

Stretch it out over a period of days = they just ignore 'a day' - but they'd get real nervous about coming to work day after day and walking the gauntlet...

Just have a double line of people all the way up the capital stairs - that they have to walk between...cover the other entrances too.

37 posted on 12/21/2009 7:12:06 AM PST by maine-iac7 ("He has the right to criticize who has the heart to help" Lincoln)
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To: reaganaut1

I thought Nelson was holding out to ensure that no abortion funding was in the bill. Just how much money did it take to get him to decide that Federally funded abortions were morally acceptable?


38 posted on 12/21/2009 7:12:35 AM PST by Sopater (I'm so sick of atheists shoving their religion in my face.)
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To: maine-iac7

Correct me if I’m wrong, but the congresscritters have some private, underground entrances they can use to avoid “smelling the tourists”.


39 posted on 12/21/2009 7:13:19 AM PST by MrB (The difference between a humanist and a Satanist is that the latter knows who he's working for.)
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To: Kenny

You clearly aren’t comprehending my comments. Accepting passage of this bill does not mean we give up; it means we must start planning and organizing to take the fight in a new direction.

As Palin said, “reload”. To reload, we have to stop wishing and hoping that a Senator is going to change his mind or save the day. That is NOT going to happen. They’re on the verge of something they’ve been wanting since Teddy Roosevelt - national health care. They will pass it because they finally have the numbers to do it.

So we have to take the fight to them on another level. Uncivil disobedience, refusing to participate in their damned mandates, voting in a GOP and/or conservative majority in 2010 that could refuse to fund this bill, etc...

Of course I know the fight is not over. I do know this bill is passing, though. So, I’m preparing myself by thinking ahead to all the things we must do in 2010 and beyond to make this dream of theirs a nightmare to implement.


40 posted on 12/21/2009 7:14:56 AM PST by nomoremods
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